...by trying one of those fake-to-third, throw-to-first deals.
Then, add in these two factors:
Two outs!
Two outs and Omar Vizquel!
He stalled despite that hitter being Vizquel, the one guy on the field who might be older than Contreras, and the guy who slugged .267 last year. He was trying to figure out another way to get out of the inning besides pitching his way out of it."
Continuing the discussion that we've made about Chris Davis, I feel it's only appropriate to start out with this classic video clip from Major League. As it turns out, Pedro Cerrano (played by Dennis Haysbert, i.e. President Palmer on 24) has similar struggles at the plate:
Here are Chris' pitch breakdowns from this year (courtesy of billjamesonline.com):
To date, Chris has seen 375 pitches this year; he has swung at 187 of them (49%), and taken 188 of them (51%). (In 2008, the percentages were 46% taken, 54% swung.)
Of the pitches that he has swung at, he has missed 43% of them. (In 2008, 32%).
Of the pitches that he has swung at, only 63% of them have been in the strike zone. (In 2008, 64%).
******************************************************* The only noticeable discrepancy here is his contact rates from 2008-2009. As you can see, he is coming up empty at a much more rapid pace (43% in 2009 to 32% in 2008). When he actually makes contact, his BABIP is .275 (the league average is about .300), down from a monstrous .353 in 2008 (which I referred to in this post about BABIP several months ago). We can conclude that (1) he's not making contact as often, and (2) when he is making contact, he's not getting any breaks. We can expect his BABIP to approach league average over the course of the season, but his sharp contact percentage decline is certainly cause for some concern.
My first inclination would be to assume that he is being pitched much differently this year, i.e. as pitchers are adjusting to him, he hasn't been adjusting back. Perhaps this has been the case, but on the whole, he's being pitched exactly the same:
There is an alarmingly high percentage of pitches for 2009 that have been termed as "unknown": 10.8%. This could possibly be skewing the data, or it could just be a data entry fluke. Or a secret new pitch that's being used to strike Chris out. *******************************************************
Overall, it's not terribly surprising for a player like Davis to have a stretch like this. He's a power hitter who strikes out a lot but doesn't walk much. When players like this have a slump at the plate, they don't have the benefit of (1) walks (because they don't walk) or (2) BABIP/luck (because they don't make much contact). For instance, when a player like Michael Young is slumping, he still catches some lucky breaks by virtue of some well placed ground balls. When a player like Milton Bradley is slumping, he works his way onto the bases every now and then by virtue of walks and patience at the plate. Davis has neither of these going for him.
While this streak is worrisome, Chris will undoubtedly pull himself out of it. The truth is, with his low-contact, no-walk style, we should excpect to see stretches like this (though perhaps not as long) throughout his career.
"Well the A's got all they could ask for from spot starter Dan Giese, who gave the Green and Gold 5-2/3 solid innings, but it wasn't enough . . .
The second inning epitomized the A's woes at the plate this season. Rangers' hurler Scott Feldman sandwiched two outs around a Jack Cust single. With Travis Buck at the plate, Cust broke for second, only to see Buck hit the ever-popular inning-ending single after the ball struck his teammate . . .
Not once did Giese retire the Rangers in order but kept his club close by working out of minor trouble in the second, third, and fifth. He exited with two out in the sixth having given up three runs on eight hits. He walked none, and struck out three . . .
Ugh . . . for the A's, it was another case of so close, yet so far."
In the comments on Monday’s post, there was a little debate over whether the clock is ticking on Chris Davis’ time with the Rangers. The speculation is due largely to the fact that Davis is striking out at a meteoric pace (he struck out three more times in today’s game) and that his approach at the plate seems slightly lackadaisical. He takes big sweeping cuts and seems to either strike out or hit homeruns. However, I agree with both of the arguments presented. The first is that Davis’ lack of production will cause the Rangers’ to replace him with hot prospect and first round pick Justin Smoak, who is also a first baseman. The second is that Davis is only in his second big league season, and that he needs a little more time to adjust before the Rangers close the curtain on him (plus Smoak needs time to prove himself in the minors).
The reason Smoak, despite his aptitude to hit like a machine, is being talked about as “major league ready” is because he was drafted out of College rather than High School. Smoak is already 22 years old, and almost ready to hit Major League pitching. Smoak’s situation and style of play bears much resemblance to Mark Teixeira’s. Teixeira was around the same age as Smoak when the Rangers drafted him, and he ended up only needing one season in the Minors before he was ready. Obviously there is a lot of expectations coming from this kid, but the same can be said for Davis. In an interview with the Dallas Morning News, Tom Hicks predicted that Smoak will be an All-Star. But USA Today predicted that Davis will be among the league leaders in homeruns this year. So there’s a lot of high hopes coming from both of these kids, and though Davis’ situation is slightly frustrating right now, I think he’ll get the rest of this season to prove himself worthy. Smoak is in a similar boat, as his offensive production this season will be telling as to whether he’ll be considered for the club in 2010. If Davis’ struggles carry out through the entire season, and Smoak destroys the ball in the minors, we may hear Chris’ name come up in trade talks during the off-season. But if Davis can somehow ease up on the strikeouts and raise his average, then the Rangers may wish to keep him at first next year and put Smoak in at DH, assuming Hank Blalock is gone.
I’m a fan of Chris Davis, and we all saw from last year that he is better than what he’s showing right now. Right now Chris Davis looks a lot like Adam Dunn. But when there’s a smoaking prospect heating up the minors, and just waiting to come up the big leagues, Adam Dunn-like baseball is not enough. Chris Davis needs to 'up' his game a few notches if he wants to stay in Texas. Then again, I don't know what's going on in Jon Daniels' mind. Maybe he's scheming something completely different. But regardless of the plans in the front office, it’s still a challenging situation for Davis, and I’m sure he’s just as aware of it as I am. But I myself am not ready to write him off until I see more of Smoak and what he’s really capable of doing.
Note: for those of you who have just recently started reading HWC, I'm Thomas Lowery, under the pseudonym 'the author,' which I mean to change if I can.
Vicente Padilla, he of the 7.20 ERA at gametime, badly needed to pitch well tonight. And he did -- 8IP 1H 3BB 4K. Padilla is now he of the 5.71 ERA -- not exactly eye candy, but much better.
It's not everyday you see a pitcher -- much less a Rangers pitcher -- much less Vicente Padilla -- allow only 1 hit through 8 innings (and leave with no decision).
Also, tough day for Michael Young on the bases: 1 pickoff (by Bedard), 1 out at home (assist by Balentien).
"The only thing worse than having to bring in a replacement-level reliever to face the Rangers in the tenth inning of a tie ballgame is having to bring in a replacement-level reliever who's fatigued . . . . There's no way you can turn to a below-100% Denny Stark against the Rangers in a tie game with any kind of confidence, and we wound up taking it straight on the chin . . . . Bedard was virtually flawless today . . . Bedard isn't going to face many better lineups than the one he saw today, and he destroyed it."
"You know how I keep harping on the roster being too right-handed and how it’s costing us wins? Padilla, career vs RHB: .241/.300/.370 Padilla, career vs LHB: .299/.381/.484
The Mariners are starting seven right-handed bats and two left-handed bats today. Yea."
