Friday Foto: Extricated Eddie

This season hasn't gone quite as well as Eddie Guardado and the Rangers hoped it would, allowing 5 ER in 4 2/3 IP. Eddie's struggles this season were something that I predicted a couple of weeks ago here at HWC in a post about Batting Average on Balls in Play:

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Eddie Guardado: 2008 BABIP (with Rangers): .240 Career BABIP: .290

I have to admit that I was surprised with "Everyday" Eddie's strong season in 2008. It was great; he's the scrappy underdog that we all root for inside. But perhaps he got a few too many lucky bounces this last season, as showcased by his .240 BABIP with the Rangers in 2008. His luck started to catch up with him when he arrived in Minnesota, however, which his .427 BABIP from that point on suggests. Look for Eddie's 2009 BABIP to regress towards his career BABIP of .290, and hence for his ERA to inflate as well.
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Hopefully this is just an aberration, but it seems more likely that Everyday Eddie's arm has finally had it (he's allowed 11 ER in just 12 IP since being traded to the Twins last year).

Apparently the frustration just got to him, as he was ejected from yesterday's game after Ron Washington pulled him for walking in a run with the bases loaded:



Even still, you have to love Eddie Guardado. He's a class-act, evidenced by his summary of the whole ejection process:

"There is nobody to blame but me. Even if one of the pitches should have been a strike . . . It’s nobody’s fault but mine for not throwing the ball over the plate."

Tuesday: What the Tuesday Morning Box Score Won't Tell You (and Some of What It Will)

Despite the fact that I usually leave game recaps to Jon (who is much better at them), for particularly interesting games I had an idea about writing an article entitled "What the Box Score Won't Tell You (and Some of What It Will)". I'm going to reserve these articles for games in which the box score just doesn't do the game justice (which, if you want to get technical, is every game, but I'll save this for the extreme circumstances). This game, though the Rangers' fourth loss in a row, was certainly exciting and had a multitude of notable moments. For those who haven't had the chance to read-up on the game yet, here are the links: Recap, Boxscore

So, without further delay, here is the first edition of . . . .

What the Tuesday Morning Box Score Won't Tell You:
**Marlon Byrd got away with a defensive miscue in the first inning (that was not ruled an error) and led to a run
**Aubrey Huff, a Texas native from Mineral Wells, reached base all 5 times even though he struck out once
**On a similar note, Jason Jennings struck out 3 in the seventh but didn't strike out the side
**Koji Uehara (Baltimore's starter) collected the first three strikeouts of his American baseball career
**Elvis Andrus and Taylor Teagarden had key RBIs on groundouts to key a 3-run 6th inning
**The ever-so-atheltic Eddie Guardado fell down while fielding a comebacker in the 8th yet still threw the runner out
**Home plate umpire CD Bucknor upheld his notoriety for a consistently inconsistent strike-zone, frustrating pitchers and batters alike (especially Ian Kinsler, who was nearly ejected)
**Ian Kinsler led off the ninth inning with a clutch double, but followed with a not-so-clutch baserunning blunder on Michael Young's lineout to the wall
**Nick Markakis saved the game for the Birds when he slammed into the wall catching Michael Young's 9th inning screamer with Ian Kinsler on second base and no outs
**Marlon Byrd struck out to end the game with the tying run on third and the winning run on second

And Some of What It Will:
**Chris Davis busted out of an 0 for the season slump with a 3 for 4 performance and 1 HR
**Michael Young slugged his first HR of the year en route to a multi-hit night
**Andruw Jones had a double and a HR in a solid offensive outing as the DH/cleanup
**Rangers pitchers had 9 strikeouts
**There were only 12,184 fans in attendance
**Vicente Padilla and Scott Feldman soiled the sheets

Wednesday: Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) measures the opponent's batting average on all batted balls that the defense manages (in other words, foul balls that are caught for outs and everything fair except for homeruns, ground rule doubles, etc). It is often used as a measure of the strength of the defense behind the pitcher, and how high or low it is can be used to predict how a pitcher might perform in the future. The league average is generally floats within a few points of .300.

It can also be used as a measure of a team's defense over the course of the season: the Rangers as a team posted a .322 BABIP in 2008, worst in the majors. In contrast, the defense-conscious Tampa Bay Rays grinded out a .285 BABIP, best in the majors. Think of how many runs that saves (or adds).

While sifting through the Rangers team BABIP statistics today, everyone's looked about as expected except for those of Kevin Millwood and Eddie Guardado:

Eddie Guardado: 2008 BABIP (with Rangers): .240 Career BABIP: .290

I have to admit that I was surprised with "Everyday" Eddie's strong season in 2008. It was great; he's the scrappy underdog that we all root for inside. But perhaps he got a few too many lucky bounces this last season, as showcased by his .240 BABIP with the Rangers in 2008. His luck started to catch up with him when he arrived in Minnesota, however, which his .427 BABIP from that point on suggests. Look for Eddie's 2009 BABIP to regress towards his career BABIP of .290, and hence for his ERA to inflate as well.


Kevin Millwood: 2008 BABIP: .366 Career BABIP: .308

Are you kidding? .366? The only pitcher on the 2008 Rangers that was worse was Luis Mendoza (with a sparkling .385). So, when the ball was put in play against Millwood last season it was like Ichiro was at the plate. Believe it or not, this isn't much worse than his .348 BABIP in 2007. And it's not as if this is a career trend: his career BABIP is fairly average at .308. Unsurprisingly, the only two seasons that Millwood has posted an ERA of higher than 5.00 have been the last two seasons. Millwood has suffered from bad luck and bad defense long enough -- it is time for a change. Look for Millwood's lofty .366 BABIP to regress towards his career average of .308. Along with our (supposedly) shored up defense, this should go along way towards an improved Kevin Millwood in 2009.

Around the Horn: Tuesday (Afternoon)

We already knew that Eddie Guardado was going to skip out on playing for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. Yesterday, TR Sullivan posted that Luis Mendoza will not play for Mexico in the Classic either. Too bad for Mexico, they could have used someone who posted an 8.67 ERA and a 3-8 record last year in the majors. Also too bad for Team USA.

Hank Blalock and Marlon Byrd will be introduced to new roles: Blalock as the DH, Byrd as the self proclaimed "I don't know -- fifth outfielder?". Baseball Time in Arlington revisits exercising Blalock's club option, and TR Sullivan thinks that Byrd's knee surgery may be more of an issue than previously let on. Kason Gabbard will also try out new digs in the bullpen, as the starting rotation is already set to be Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, McCarthy, Harrison. I imagine we will have Jason Jennings sighting in the rotation at the first hint of the need for a sixth starter to step in.

Michael Young is sure that "Andruw is going to have a monster year." To be honest, I'm not going to be impressed with anything less.

Frankie Francisco is heading into camp as the top choice the closer's role, from which he will receive considerable competition from CJ Wilson. I like this move, Francisco was dominant when took on that role last year. I was never comfortable with Wilson as the closer anyways; he is much more powerful as a setup/LOOGY type.

Spring Training Updates: TR Sullivan, Jeff Wilson

Last, but not least, one of the highlights of my day yesterday was reading Jamey Newberg's article on why the Rangers are going to be better in 2009. I have to admit that I wasn't too terribly optimistic about our chances for this season, but this article changed my mind.

Around the Horn: Weekend Edition

It would be nice if the biggest Rangers news of the weekend involved a player actually on the roster . . . but I will save that for a different post.

TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers have signed Andruw Jones. I'm questioning the motives of the Rangers a little bit here. Jones used to be a fine defensive centerfielder, and a Sammy Sosa-like power hitter. With the current logjam the Rangers have in the outfield with Murphy, Hamilton, Byrd, Cruz, Boggs, Catalanotto, and eventually Borbon, it is difficult to see how adding an aging centerfielder on a quest to resurrrect his career is going to help the Rangers. It seems even more detrimental when considering who he is going to be stealing at-bats from. Murphy? Cruz? Boggs? Possibly Borbon? The Rangers will benefit much more from any of these players taking the field more often than Jones. It is a low risk financially, but given the Rangers interest in acquiring a heavy right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup, I think that a decent performance by Jones will inevitably mark the end of the road for Blalock or Murphy.

Moving on to signings that have been completed, the Rangers signed veteran reliever Brendan Donnelly to a minor league contract. If, like me, you weren't terribly familiar with Donnelly before this move, you can find his stats here. I have to say that I was impressed with Donnelly's numbers: a career ERA of 3.12 and only one season over 3.94 (last season was a bit disastrous for him at 8.56, which helps explain why he is still available). Reading some of the comments posted on different websites, some reactions are of the sort: "Why do we keep signing all of these washed-up has-beens?" I have several responses to this:

1) They are cheap.
2) They are low risk.
3) They are pretty much all that is available.
4) They provide an injury insurance policy (see: Joaquin Benoit, Eric Hurley).
5) The Rangers don't want to rush any of the young arms in the minors before they are ready.
6) As Adam Morris of LoneStarBall stated in this post, "[The] interesting thing about bullpens is that most of the ones that end up doing really well have some guys pop up out of nowhere. Really, that's what makes bullpens so unique...you can often times dig up a guy as an NRI or as a fringe prospect who can have some things click in the pen and become a quality reliever."

The most important issue here, I think, is that the Rangers are settting their sights on 2010. The signing of guys like Donnelly, Derrick Turnbow, and Eddie Guardado ensures that guys like Neftali Feliz are not Edinson Volquez-ed and rushed up here too quickly. I think signing guys like Guardado, Turnbow, and Donnelly are different than say, Jamey Wright, because Wright was never actually all that good, ever. These guys have a number of productive seasons under their belt. And, you never know, they just may have some gas left in the tank.

Also, Jason Parks of Baseball Time in Arlington posted an in-depth scouting report on Julio Borbon. For those who are not terribly familiar with scouting or with Borbon, this is a good read.

Around the Horn: Wednesday

The first Spring Training game is in three weeks and one day . . .

Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Maz Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Joaquin Arias made USA Today Sports Weekly's Top 100 Names You Need to Know list in that order. Arias? Here is what they had to say:

"86. Joaquin Arias, SS, Rangers: Arias, 24, had shoulder surgery in 2007 that limited his arm strength in 2008, and the emergence (and apparent anointing) of Elvis Andrus as the shortstop of the present and future casts Arias' role in doubt. Assuming Andrus pans out, Arias will have upside, possibly as a super-utility player."

I think its a bit odd to have a "super-utility" player in your Top 100 list, but at least the description is accurate. Recall how we required Arias: he was the player to be named later in the Alex Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano deal. Follow the link and read the list of other players the Rangers could have chosen from . . . most notably the only other infielder. I know we have Kinsler, but wouldn't it be nice to have this guy instead of Arias?

It turns out that Josh Hamilton is staying put in centerfield for at least this season. Appropriately, it appears that Nolan Ryan's announcement was a bit too fast. I imagine a lot of it has to do with the development of centerfield prospect Julio Borbon. Judging from this non-move, I would imagine we will not be seeing Borbon until late September at the very least, and possibly not until next year alltogether.

To conclude and follow up on two points I made yesterday (thanks to those who posted updated comments):

It is confirmed that Eddie Guardado has signed with the Rangers on a minor league one-year deal. He will most likely be rounding out the bullpen. I would love to write about how I agree with this situation, but Joey Matschulat at Baseball Time in Arlington has done a much better job than I would have breaking down Everyday Eddie's return, including a month-by-month look at his 2008 statistics and probable reasons for his semi-meltdown late in the year. Also, Adam Morris at LoneStarBall provides his outlook on the 2009 bullpen.

It has been formally announced that 105.3 The Fan, an FM affiliate of KRLD, is going to be broadcasting weekday games, and KRLD is going to be broadcasting weekend games. Additionally, 105.3 is going to air 18 spring training games this year.

Around the Horn: Tuesday

Some good stuff out there today . . .

Baseball Time in Arlington has a fantastic scouting report on Justin Smoak, our 2008 first round pick. It even explains the basics of scouting ratings and what are called the "five tools". Of particular note was the comment that it is not unreasonable to expect Smoak to produce .290/.385/.525 year in and year out.

ESPN.com's Doug Mittler penned an article several days ago about the only NFL and MLB teams to not have reached their respective championships. There are only eight teams. There are only three baseball teams. Our beloved Rangers, of course, are lucky enough to make this elite list, along with the Mariners and the Nationals. Interesting article, but he loses me when he blames most of this on former owner George W. Bush. To me, this screams, "I don't really know anything about the Rangers."

TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers are close to bringing Eddie Guardado back. Given how desperately our bullpen needs help, I like this move. Guardado pitched well last year (3.65 ERA in 55 games for the Rangers), he will mostly likely pitch against lefties, and he's a good role model for our young pitchers.

Jamey Newberg makes a similar note about Guardado, and later states his fear that the A's will snatch Sheets for a one-year deal. That scares me too, especially since the Rangers have been fairly quiet about Sheets as of late.

Bizarre note on the NBC-DFW Blog on how Rangers game are (allegedly) moving to 105.3 FM. It appears that no official announcement has been made. This is a bit shocking to me, since the only stations that have broadcast the Rangers in my time have been WBAP and KRLD, and I have not heard any talk of an expiring contract.