Monday: Commentator Query

If you were watching Sunday night's USA vs. Venezuela WBC game, you saw a 10 pitch at bat by Kevin Youkilis against Yoel Hernandez end in a home run. After the blast, one of the ESPN commentators (either Charlie Steiner or Jose Mota) stated that Hernandez was at the mercy of Youkilis, who had fouled off all of the good pitches and was just "waiting for a mistake". Sounds intuitive enough, right? I didn't think so. Any at bat of 5 pitches or more is guaranteed to have 2 strikes, and we all know that the batting average of most hitters severely suffers with two strikes (just as they get a "boost" when they are ahead in the count). Surely, I thought, this was just typical "announcery": a general statement made based on something in the game that just happened with no prior research.

This is exactly why I was shocked to learn that Kevin Youkilis hit .281/.452/.485 in 2008 in his 32 at bats of 7 pitches or more. Not too shabby, and certainly much higher of a batting average than I would have predicted (the high OBP isn't surprising since 7+ pitch at bats usually have three balls as well). It doesn't appear to be a fluke, either. In 2005-2007, Youkilis did even better in at bats of 7 or more pitches:

2007: .342/.627/.553 (38 at bats)
2006: .350/.530/.639 (60 at bats)
2005: .450/.600/.909 (11 at bats)

So, Charlie Steiner and Jose Mota, whether or not you researched this one, you got it right.

(source: BillJamesOnline.com)

Around the Horn: Super Bowl Sunday

Anthony Andro at the Star-Telegram takes an interesting look at every farm system that Baseball America has ranked #1. Fortunately for the Rangers, he notes that all but three of the corresponding big league teams have made the playoffs in subsequent years. The article includes a breakdown of each of the playoff bound teams and the contributions of their respective farm systems. Of particular interest to me were his notes on the Atlanta Braves 1990s dynasty, the Rangers of the late 1990s, and last year's upstart Tampa Bay Rays.

In the same paper, Jim Reeves talks about Nolan Ryan's desire to move Josh Hamilton to right field. Ryan claims that Hamilton is "too big" to be a centerfielder, and that Cruz or Byrd will likely replace him in center. First of all, I don't think is a bad idea given Hamilton's health and conditioning concerns. But the fact that Hamilton is "too big" and Nelson Cruz is just right confuses me (I tried to find a reliable source for their heights and weights, but Baseball Reference and Bill James have conflicting reports). Personally, if its between Hamilton and Cruz in center, I would go with Hamilton. If Hamilton does indeed go to right, I hope Byrd gets the nod there over Cruz (at least defensively).

Another issue this raises is what to do about Cruz. His cannon of an arm is better utilized in center or in right. With Hamilton allegedly moving, would Cruz be more likely to play in left, in center, or in a 4th outfielder role?

In non-Rangers news, there is talk that the Braves may bring back the recently released Andruw Jones, who is available for the $400,000 minimum.

Also, the Brewers have signed Trevor Hoffman, and the Red Sox have signed Kevin Youkilis to a long term deal.