Showing posts with label Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Tuesday: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

One of the cornerstones of the Mark Teixeira trade, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was (and still is) expected to be a star. As we all know, however, he's had his share of growing pains and has yet to really produce a "breakout" season. His struggles are demonstrated in Baseball Prospectus' scouting reports:

2008: "Ignore the sub-par showing. Saltalamacchia is still a future star."

2009: "Salty might have not blossomed like the fully-finished prospect you might wish he was, be he's still relatively young . . . "

If you take a look at it, Saltalamacchia is a bizarre hitter. Why?

**He has been able to sustain a ridiculously high BABIP throughout most of his career: .388 in 2008 and .352 so far this year. How does he do it?

**His line drive rate is also quite impressive: 27.2% of his batted balls in 2008 were line drives, quite similar to 27.6% so far this year. Now, the question is, why is he batting .252 with his high BABIP and LD%? Read on . . .

**His strikeout totals are staggering. Not quite Chris Davis staggering, but still somewhat troublesome. In 2008 he struck out in 37.4% of his plate appearances, and 36.1% this year. When he does make contact, he's likely to hammer the ball, but he doesn't make contact often enough to do much damage.

**Last year, Salty's OBP was a respectable .352, largely due to his high walk total. However, he (along with every Rangers hitter) seems to disdain walking in 2009, as demonstrated by his .305 OBP so far. This makes a little more sense when examining his contact rates: in 2009, he has swung at 35.4% of the pitches he's seen outside the strike zone (up from 26.2% in 2008). In other words, he's swinging at bad pitches more often.

Overall, I think it's important to keep in mind that Salty has only had 687 career plate appearances (roughly 1.5 seasons worth for a catcher), and he's still only 24 years old. His improved defense has been well noted this year and gives the Rangers more reasons to be optimistic and hang on to him. Perhaps all he needs is some more time . . . .

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Thursday: Deep Thoughts . . . .

I don't really have a theme in mind for today's post. What I've mostly done is taken a few things that I've been thinking about this week and posted them all in one article.

1) According to Bill James Online, Ian Kinsler is the hottest hitter in baseball right now with a temperature of 104 degrees (for an explanation of temperatures, go here). Certainly not much of a surprise given his offensive play as of late, but to see that (according to this "temperature" system) he is the hottest hitter in the game, that's pretty cool. Following Kinsler are Victor Martinez, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, and Kevin Youkilis.

2) Jamey Newberg, in one of his patented newsletters, remarked about Kinsler in his recap of the Rangers 5-4 win over the Blue Jays: the game included "Ian Kinsler’s first opposite field home run since birth." Not knowing whether this was actual fact or a metaphor to articulate Kinsler's propensity for the left side of the diamond, I decided to check it out. Of course, Newberg is correct. Here is the career data for the location of Kinsler's home runs (chronologically from left to right, from 2006 to 2009):

Homers to Left: 12+19+16+4 = 51 total
Homers to Center: 2+1+2+0 = 5 total
Homers to Right: 0+0+0+1 = 1 total

(source: billjamesonline.com)

3) While it's a little bit too early to start playing the Pythagorean W-L game, the Rangers have scored exactly as many runs as they have allowed: 85. This gives them a Pythagorean record of .500 (which doesn't truly translate into a record if the team has played 13 games). Given the trouble that the Rangers have had on the mound thus far, to know that the team breaks even is a nice thought. Their 85 runs scored is 4th in the bigs, and their 84 runs allowed is 4th from the bottom. Symmetry seems to be the name of the game here, since the Rangers finished 1st in runs scored last year, and last in runs allowed.

4) Until I played around with baseball-reference.com this week, I had no idea how little players put the ball into play on a 3-0 count over their careers. I was looking at Marlon Byrd's page and saw that, over his 2,406 career PA and 111 PA with a 3-0 count, he's only put 1 ball in play. Less than 1%. I imagined the number being low, but not that low.

Perhaps, I thought, it's only because Byrd isn't a tremendous power hitter and doesn't get the green light on 3-0 from the dugout very often, and when he does swing he takes a big rip which is less likely to make good contact. A look at some of the other Rangers (which have decent, but not prolific power), as well as some prolific power hitters around baseball somewhat supports this theory (despite the lack of thorough research and my small sample size). My primary point, however, is that hitters (especially the listed bona fide power hitters below the list of Rangers) make contact on 3-0 a lot less than I thought.

Michael Young: 2 balls put into play in 60 3-0 counts (0 HR)
Ian Kinsler: 3 balls put into play in 30 3-0 counts (1 HR)
Hank Blalock: 4 balls put into play in 75 3-0 counts (o HR)

*******************************************************
Matt Holliday: 10 balls put into play in 61 3-0 counts (0 HR)
Ryan Howard: 12 balls put into play in 137 3-0 counts (1 HR)
Alex Rodriguez: 12 balls put into play in 271 3-0 counts (1 HR)

5) The Rangers are ranked 27th in walks taken in the majors. In 2008 they finished with the 6th highest walk total. The main culprits:

**Marlon Byrd has walked 0 times this year in 36 PA. Of course, no one cares when you are hitting .361/.361/.667. When this hot streak dies down, however, let's hope that Byrd remembers how to be selective (a great asset of his last year when he walked in roughly 10% of his PAs en route to a .380 OBP).

**Josh Hamilton has walked 3 times in 57 PA, but his struggles as a result of his lack of selectivity have been well documented.

**Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who took a big step forward in the walks category in 2008 (despite his lack of power), has only 1 walk in 39 PA

**Chris Davis, never one to take advantage of many free passes, is characteristically low in the BB column with 2 in 46 PA, and leads the league with 21 strikeouts. So he's been striking out (roughly) once every two times he steps up. Yikes.

6) Hank Blalock's middle name is Joe. Not Joseph, Joe. Weird.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Tuesday: An Opening Day for the Ages

Today was a great day. Not only did the baseball season burst forth in all it's glory, but the Rangers also won, punishing Cy Young Award Winner Cliff Lee and the Indians 9-1. There was also plenty to talk about all over baseball:

**Hank Blalock homered for the Rangers in the Rangers' home opener. Again. This marks the 5th time that Blalock has gone deep in home openers (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009).

**Jarrod Saltalamacchia homered off of Cleveland pitcher Jensen Lewis for his first homerun since June 3, 2008. The pitcher he took deep on June 3rd? Jensen Lewis. (link)

**Ken Griffey Jr. homered in his first game back with the Seattle Mariners, tying Frank Robinson for the most homeruns on Opening Day with 8. (link)

**Two Arizona Diamondbacks, Felipe Lopez and Tony Clark, homered from both sides of the plate, marking the first time two teammates had ever done it on Opening Day and the first time in the regular season since Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams did it on April 23, 2000. (link)

**Florida's leadoff man Emilio Bonifacio hit an inside-the-park homerun, the first ever inside-the-park homerun hit on Opening Day. (link)

**Mark Teixeira's Yankee debut was met with boos from hostile Orioles fans, apparently bitter that the hometown boy rejected the O's to sign with the Yankees for more dough. (link)

**Blue Jays fans threw items onto the field at the Detroit Tigers, prompting the umpires to delay the Jays' home opener at Rogers Centre. (link)

**Two games were postponed because of snow. Again. When will MLB understand that they should not schedule any Opening Day games up North?

Isn't it great? Baseball is back!

Monday, March 2, 2009

Monday: BB% and K%

Today we examine those who walked and struck out the most often on the 2008 Rangers:

Top 5: Highest BB%

Milton Bradley 16.2%

Jarrod Saltalamacchia 13.5%

Brandon Boggs 13.5%

Ramon Vazquez 11.2%

Marlon Byrd 10.2%

The list of highest BB% was encouraging to me, especially since it includes two young players: Saltalamacchia and Boggs. For all of the grief that Saltalamcchia endured last year in terms of power and batting average, he still ended the season with a .352 OBP, which shows his maturation in terms of understanding the strike zone. Now if he can learn to hit it once it's there . . .


Predictably, most of those who made the top 5 BB% list also made the K% list:

Top 5: Highest K%

Jarrod Saltalamacchia 37.4%

Brandon Boggs 32.9%

Chris Davis 29.8%

Milton Bradley 27.1%

Ramon Vazquez 22.0%

Despite the fact that I just said that it was encouraging that Saltalamacchia and Boggs were on the previous list, the fact that they are at the top of this one is somewhat troublesome. Why? In the case of Chris Davis, the number of strikeouts is still problematic, but he makes up for it by slugging .549. Same for Bradley, who also managed to hit .321 in addition to slugging .563. Saltalamacchia and Boggs slugged an underwhelming .364 and .399, respectively.


It stuck out to me that Marlon Byrd and Chris Davis are the only players not in both categories, which naturally led to . . .

Highest and Lowest BB/K ratio:

Marlon Byrd, the only player in the Top 5 BB% list not on the Top 5 K% list, was tops on the team in BB/K ratio with .74. This is a pretty remarkable feat, given how a high number of walks usually implies a high number of strikeouts. Marlon Byrd was arguably one of the most balanced hitters in the lineup in 2008.

Chris Davis, the only player in the Top 5 K% list not on the Top 5 BB% list, was lowest on the team in BB/K ratio with .23. While it is clear that Davis will continue to mash homeruns, the fact that he has such poor control of the strikezone is a bit worrisome. Unlike Byrd, there's no balance here.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Thursday: BABIP Revisited

To follow up on yesterday's post about BABIP for pitchers I thought we could examine the statistic through an offensive lens. It works slightly differently for hitters: the league average of .300 is not always helpful when examining a hitter's BABIP. For instance, Ichiro has a career BABIP of .356. Instead of being the result of a terrible amount of luck over his entire career, this is due to the fact that he is a terrific hitter. On the other hand, it has been shown that (up to a certain point) pitchers have little to no control over their BABIP. In other words, hitters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers do. Nevertheless, extraordinarily high or low BABIPs can still be used to predict future performance.

Most of the BABIPs for Rangers hitters from 2008 were as expected, but the following cases were somewhat surprising:

Milton Bradley: 2008 BABIP: .396 Career BABIP: .326

First of all, I expect a hitter of the Milton Bradley variety to have a high BABIP to begin with: he works the count to wait for the right pitch (4.00 PPA in 2008), swings and misses a lot (25.7% of the times he swung in 2008), and he mashes the ball when he does connect (.563 SLG in 2008). It certainly helped that he stung more line drives (24.7% LDs, more than the previous 4 seasons). But it doesn't matter who is being considered: George Brett, Tony Gwynn, Ted Williams, Ichiro Suzuki; a .396 BABIP is incredible (and most likely unsustainable). Especially when considering that Milton's 2008 mark was 70 points higher than his career BABIP. I concur with Bill James, who predicts that Bradley's 2009 BABIP will regress to a .341 mark (much closer to his career total). This means, of course, that Bradley probably won't hit .321 again. Fortunately for the Cubs, however, that still isn't too shabby.

Ramon Vazquez: 2008 BABIP: .355 Career BABIP: .315

To Vazquez's credit, he did hit more line drives in 2008 than ever before in his career (27.3% LDs) and significantly fewer fly balls (26.4% FBs compared to 35.6% in 2007). His luck started to catch up with him at the end of the season, however, as he hit .208/.317/.226 in August and .133/.235/.200 in September. Look for his BABIP to regress to .315 and for his batting average to return to his career average of .257.

Other players with notable BABIPs, but not enough career data to be significant:

Chris Davis: 2008 BABIP .353
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 2008 BABIP .388
Taylor Teagarden: 2008 BABIP .409
Jason Botts: 2008 BABIP .222

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Around the Horn: Valentines Day Edition

Morning post today because I'm taking my fiance out for Valentine's Day tonight . . .

Yesterday I commemorated the first "milestone" for this blog. I calculated that to match LoneStarBall's impressive 15,000,000 page viewings at this rate, it would take approximately 1,154 years. Still, we have something to shoot for. Maybe the Rangers will have won the World Series by then.

Jeff Wilson runs down the biggest questions for the Rangers this season, including, but not limited to: Nelson Cruz, Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Brandon McCarthy, Frank Francisco, CJ Wilson, Elvis Andrus. I'm going to throw another one out there: Michael Young. He is definitely one of the players to watch to see how he returns from a sub-par offseason and how he performs at his new position.

Jim Reeves writes about Andruw Jones and his role on the team, referring to him mostly as an insurance policy. It's good to know the Rangers aren't putting too much stock in Jones, but my question is: Insurance policy for what? The densely populated outfield already insures against all basic problems and injuries. Even if, God forbid, we had serious injuries in the outfield, even if Nelson Cruz returns to his AAAA-hitter form, there are players on this team and in this organization that I'd rather see fill that role over Jones.

Mike Hindman at the DMN Blog shows the similarities between Michael Main's delivery and . . . Nolan Ryan's. A bit of a stretch, but you can see where he's coming from. Includes cool graphics!

TR Sullivan has a great rundown of memorable moments from Spring Trainings past.

12 days until Spring Training!

Monday, February 9, 2009

Around the Horn: Monday (Night)

Most of the news relating to our Texas Rangers today is about a former shortstop (and I'm not talking about Michael Young). I'm going to write about that soon, but until then there is news over players actually playing for the Rangers now (albeit not much):

TR Sullivan runs down the Spring competition. It's business as usual most of the way around the diamond, with notable competitions at catcher with Saltalamacchia and Teagarden and in the outfield with the whole Andruw Jones enigma.

Baseball Prospectus posted their PECOTA-based standings projections for 2009. They are not too kind to the Rangers, who are predicted to post an uninspiring 72-90. I don't think the Rangers were projected to win as many as 79 games last year, so that may be slightly encouraging.

Yahoo! Sports also wrote their 2009 scouting report about the Rangers, noting that the offense may be as much of a problem as the pitching . . .

And that is about it for today. Spring training starts in 17 days!

Friday, January 30, 2009

Jason Varitek Signs with Red Sox

It has just been reported that Jason Varitek has agreed to a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox worth $5 million. That seems to be a lot less than he was initially asking for, but I suppose that's how it goes when you hit .220 in a contract year.

I wonder how this will affect possible trade discussions between the Rangers and Red Sox. On one hand, it makes a trade less likely and decreases our chances of receiving premium pitching like Clay Buchholz in return. On the other hand, Jason Varitek would make a great mentor to a young, fresh catcher like Saltalamacchia who would welcome the opportunity. In that regard, it may not threaten the Rangers' at all. With the pitching depth the Sox just added in John Smoltz and Brad Penny, Buchholz is much more expendable . . .