NEWSFLASH: We're Moving!

After several months occupying this site, Hello Win Column is moving to:

http://hellowincolumn.blogspot.com

We're excited about the move here at HWC. Nothing will be different at the new site, except for the URL. We hope that those of you who have been reading our work will continue to do so at the new site.

On behalf of Thomas, Jon, and I, thanks for reading. See you at the new digs.

Go Rangers,

John Paul

Tuesday: Team Splits

"Splits", for those who don't know, is the term given to how players perform in different scenarios. For example: lefty/righty, day/night, home/road, etc. Let's take a look at the interesting splits that the Rangers have formed as a team:

Author's note: all statistics are current as of 5/30 (when this post was written)

Home/Road:

The Ranger hitters at RBiA are slamming a .285/.357/.521, but away from home they only manage a meager .249/.294/.447.

The Ranger pitchers at RBiA have allowed a modest .277/.346/.448, and on the road they improved to .259/.332/.413.


April/May:

The Ranger hitters have been extremely consistent throughout both months of the young season so far, hitting .269/.329/.497 in April and .266/.326/.475 in May. However, over the last two weeks, they have only managed a weak .228/.300/.446.

The Ranger pitchers in April were 10-11 with a 5.70 ERA, but in May completely reversed course to 19-8 with a 3.61 line. They went from allowing .287/.365/.479 in April to .253/.318/.393 in May.


Number of Outs:

The Ranger hitters' performance worsens as the inning progresses (I don't know enough about this stat to know if this is normal or not):

0 outs: .288/.342/.555
1 out: .272/.326/.516
2 outs: .241/.313/.377

Strangely, the Ranger pitchers' performance also worsens as the inning progresses (measured by line of opposing hitters):

0 outs: .247/.320/.426
1 out: .294/.341/.415
2 outs: .265/.358/.456

Source: baseball-reference.com

Monday Movie: Ryan beats Ventura

Of course everyone, even non-Ranger fans, know about this, but some baseball moments are meant to be shared time and time again.

Monday: A May to Definitely Remember

Though the month didn’t end on a high note, the Rangers leave May in jubilee, as they finish with a record of 20-9. In fact, May was only the second time the Rangers have had a 20-win month in franchise history. The other was way back in 1978, when they went 21-10 in September. They go into June 10 games over 500 and with a nice 4 game lead over the enervated Angels, who were on the verge of falling behind the Mariners before their comeback win on Sunday.

May began with a loss, as the White Sox took down the Rangers by the score of 4-3. Then the Rangers went on a tear, winning 13 of their next 15 ballgames, bringing them into first place in the AL West. The only real dark spot on the month was when the Tigers swept the Rangers in Detroit. It seemed like a coincidence that the Rangers had suddenly lost ten in a row at Comerica Park, but after they went down to Houston and promptly swept the Astros, I began to reconsider my thoughts. The Rangers then lost two of three to the Yankees before taking three of four from the Athletics to close out the month.

The success during May was a team effort for the Rangers. No individual seemed to have their own glimmering moment in the sun. The hitters collaborated to give the pitching enough support, and the results were triumphant—most of the time. The Rangers’ hitters actually had a bit of a down month compared to April. Ian Kinsler lost it a little bit, Chris Davis got worse and worse, and Hank Blalock saw his average slide a little. On the other hand, Nelson Cruz really got going over the final weeks of May, and Michael Young stayed consistent. What I liked most about the hitters was that each one of them, regardless of their struggles, always seemed to pick up a hit in a vital situation: Hank Blalock with the game winning double, Chris Davis with the walk-off homerun, even Jarrod Saltalamacchia with the 2 RBI double in yesterday’s game despite the fact that Texas didn’t win. I can’t go further without mentioning how impressed I have been with the rookie Elvis Andrus. He’s been everything we could have hoped for and then some.

But it wasn’t the offense that carried the Rangers through May. It was the pitching. I was watching a game and one of the broadcasters reported that the Rangers had the fewest amount of bullpen innings for the month of May in all of baseball. That’s because the starters were going so deep into the games and they were going deep into games because they weren’t allowing very many runs. Here’s a nice stat: In 15 of the 20 wins, the Rangers’ allowed 3 runs or less, including three shutouts. To me the two key pitchers this month were Scott Feldman and Brandon McCarthy. Feldman, after filling in and then taking the place of Kris Benson (which is what I thought would happen), has gone 4-0 and lowered his ERA down to a comfortable 3.91. McCarthy has been equally outstanding, with the exception of a few rough starts. The most important achievement for McCarthy during May was that he was finally able to climb over his 6 inning barrier. On May 13th versus Seattle, McCarthy pitched seven innings for the first time as a Ranger. His next start he went seven innings again. Then he pitched a gem against the Astros in his next start, going nine innings and allowing 0 runs. On Saturday, he pitched six innings and only allowed one run. So in his last four starts, Brandon as pitched 29 innings and lowered his ERA down to 4.35 (it would be much lower if it wasn’t for one very bad start against Oakland earlier in the month).

To me it seems as if May has been a very long month, which is nice, because it’s made the Ranger glory all the better. It seems strange, but this has been the greatest month statistically for the Rangers since I started following them. It’s hard to fathom just how well they’ve played. And they still believe they can get better. June, as we all know, will be a challenging month. Right now though, I’m just savoring the moment, because the Rangers are in first place and it’s June 1st, meaning that 'early' is an adverb that can no longer be used.

Hello Win Column, Win #30: Rangers Hang 14 on Oakland

What an outburst . . .

Game Recap and Box Score

Is Anyone Still Watching? from Athletics Nation

"The first inning should tell you all you need to know about the A's offense. It is nearly impossible to receive three walks and follow that up with a double and manage to only score a single run, but that's just what the A's did. And what was a promising start to the game was immediately snuffed out.

Luckily, it wouldn't matter. Here's the A's pitching line:

Anderson: 4 IP, 8H, 6ER
Cameron: 2 IP, 4H, 4ER
Springer: 1 IP, 3H, 3ER
Bailey: 1 IP, 2H, 1ER"

Hello Win Column, Win #29: Let's Play Two: Rangers Take Nightcap 5-2

Game Recap and Box Score

Two wins in one day, that's a pretty swell deal . . . . The first excerpt from the losing locker room today has some love for Ron Washington . . .

Geren's Ineptitude Exposed Again In Doubleheader Sweep from Athletics Nation

"This double-header was painful for me to watch, but not because the A's lost twice, not because the A's fell 10 games under .500, not because the A's dropped to 10 games out of 1st place. The most painful part was the occasional shot in the dugout of Ron Washington, whose intelligence, intensity, and high expectations cannot be denied by anyone who has followed his career. The A's aren't going to win the West, so I hope the Rangers do - they were smart enough to hire Ron Washington to manage their team and they deserve, as he deserves, some success.

Chris Davis had struck out all four ABs in Game 1, and finished the double-header 0-7 with 6 Ks. He has now struck out a major league leading 77 times, including 23 times in his last 34 ABs. He is batting .194 and will likely be optioned to AAA. In sum, he is essentially, this season and especially right now, the equivalent of a pitcher batting. I was truly in disbelief when I saw this move [Davis being intentionally walked in the first inning] being made.

I'm sorry. Bob Geren is simply not fit to manage a major league baseball team. Even stupid managers don't make some of the decisions he has made - and it's not like his team plays good fundamental baseball, or exudes any noticeable intensity or joy in the dugout or on the field. A's players - who are both young and limited in talent and need every advantage they can get - and A's fans, deserve better."

Un-freakin-believeable; First of two goes as usual, second one looking worse from Athletics Home Plate

"*UPDATE TO THIS COMMENT* A’s lose second as well, 5-2
Game two’s fault goes 95% to Geren for intentionally walking a sub .200 batter who strikes out the most in the majors and 5% to pitcher, Gonzalez who gave up the tw0-run single that followed."

Hello Win Column, Win #28: Rangers Ride Late Power Surge to Victory Over Oakland, 6-3

Game Recap and Box Score

Let's hear from the losing locker room:

Open Thread: Game 46 - A's at Texas (Game 2) from Athletics Nation

"Josh Outman pitched great in Game 1, striking out a career high 9 in 6.2 IP and allowing just 3 hits, but was pulled after 101 pitches because Bob Geren saw a game that was becoming dangerously close to being an A's win and took swift and decisive action."

Un-freakin-believable; First of two goes as usual, second one looking worse from Athletics Home Plate

"Another wasted pitching performance by Josh Outman who got the no decision. Outman went 6 2/3 and allowed three runs but was pulled by Geren because there was a runner on first and two out… Oh no, not the ninth place hitter who is 0-2! Quick get Outman out of there! The best reliever (aside from Bailey) was used instead, for a third of an inning, nice management. Next inning of course the A’s get lit up, and eventually lose 6-3.

Two home runs off Santiago Casilla gave the Rangers a three-run lead in the bottom of the eighth. Casilla looked bad, barely able to find the strike zone. Why not use Casilla instead of Wuertz for one batter in the seventh and use the much better reliever for a whole inning? I know what Geren was doing, he was planning ahead for the second loss of the day."

Friday Foto: Do YOU Recognize This Team?

Look at how different this team is after just 2 years . . . . I count at least 4 players that are no longer in the big leagues . . . .

On an unrelated note, I still think Mark Teixeira looks like he's 14 years old.

Thursday: Hambone's First Pitch Hackin'

During yesterday's broadcast, after Josh Hamilton took the first pitch of one of his 4 at bats, Josh Lewin said:

"Josh is doing such a good job laying off those first pitches now."

Of course, this prompted me to check. Since returning from his mini-injury sustained by crashing into the wall in the Angels series at RBiA, here is how The Hambino has handled first pitches:

5/22 at Houston: Swung at 2 of 5 first pitches
5/23 at Houston: Swung at 4 of 4 first pitches
5/24 at Houston: Swung at 2 of 4 first pitches
SERIES TOTAL: Swung at 8 of 13 first pitches

5/25 vs. New York: Swung at 1 of 3 first pitches
5/26 vs. New York: Swung at 1 of 4 first pitches
5/27 vs. New York: Swung at 2 of 4 first pitches
SERIES TOTAL: Swung at 4 of 11 first pitches

Conclusion: In Houston, not a "good job". In New York, a "good job". Overall: still has a ways to go.

Something worth noting: when Josh actually puts the ball in play by swinging at the first pitch, he's hitting .350/.350/.714. This certainly suggests that, to a certain degree, swinging at the first pitch isn't alltogether a terrible idea.

What about all the other times that he swings and doesn't put the ball into play? He's already put himself down in the count at 0-1. In 77 plate appearances starting with an 0-1 count in 2009, Josh is hitting a paltry .225/.286/.380. (I realize that and 0-1 count doesn't imply that he swung at the first pitch, but I believe it is a reasonable approximation; if anyone has the data specifically for 0-1 counts after a swing, please let me know!)

The times when he hasn't swung at the first pitch and it has been called a ball (in other words, when he starts with a 1-0 count), Hamilton has hit .256/.333/.512 in 45 plate appearances.

It appears that being a little more patient can't hurt . . .

Hello Win Column, Win #27: Rangers Bite Yankees Back 7-3

Game boxscore and recap

This was the highlight of my research for today's HWC post: a contrast between Lone Star Ball's game report and Pinstripe Alley's game report:

Adam Morris (of LSB): "That was worth the wait."

Travis G (of PSA): "I can't believe I stayed up for this."

But wait, there's more from the losing locker room:

Wrapping it up from Texas from The LoHud Yankees Blog

"It would be nice if the conversion of Joba Chamberlain from wunderkind reliever to dominating starter was a smooth one. But he is a 23-year-old in his first full year as a starter. There are going to be bumps and that’s what you saw tonight."

After a long delay, frustration through the night from River Avenue Blues

"After sitting through a 145-minute rain delay in anticipation of a Joba Chamberlain start, Yankee fans on the East Coast sat through another three hours of frustration as the Rangers topped the Yankees 7-3. It was only appropriate that the last out would come on a called strike three . . ."

All Joba, All The Time… Well, For 4 Innings from The Yankee Scrolls

"Good morning Yankee fans, though I suppose it only will be if you didn’t stay up to watch last night’s debacle — a 7-3 loss to the Rangers . . . ."

Wednesday: Kinsler Down, Murphy Up

Ian Kinsler, who indubitably has a large ego, has looked embarrassed every time he comes up empty at the plate these past few weeks. The Rangers’ second baseman, who got off to a brilliant start, has gone off track to the point where we don’t believe he’ll come through each at bat anymore. Now of course we know Kinsler will snap out of it, but for now, with his average all the way down to 283, Ian is not a lot of fun to watch.

Last year Kinsler remained pretty consistent up until his injury. His recent struggles are bringing back memories to the 2007 season, when Kinsler had a few weeks in May and June where he looked like he was caught in a fog. That's reminiscent to how Kinsler looks now, too. I mentioned a few posts ago about how the Rangers are winning so many games despite their struggling offense. It’s because of the pitching, which right now has the AL’s lowest ERA for the month. It’s interesting how when the pitching is good, a struggling offense is often overlooked. I myself didn’t really notice Kinsler’s struggles until last week, when his average dipped below 300. Even now, as long as the Rangers keep winning, his slump isn’t a major concern.

The psychology of a struggling player is intriguing. When I was in Little League and I’d go in a slump, my coach would bench me so I could relax and take my mind off the game. To miss a game is like an ordeal, but when that ordeal is over, the reward of playing again is great. The situation for a slumping big leaguer is exactly the same. They don’t want to sit out. After all, how could sitting around sitting on the bench or playing video games in the clubhouse help improve the player’s game? The answer is easy: mind rest. It’s what everyone needs during hard times. Kinsler had one for himself on Saturday, and he hit a homerun on Sunday. Of course he’s still not hitting to ball to his fullest potential, but the rest still helped him in some way or another.

Ian Kinsler is undoubtedly one of the top five talents in all of baseball, an assertion that has been made by countless other beside myself. He has been highly touted by esteemed experts in the game, meaning that we really have nothing to worry about, especially if the good pitching continues.

The bad times of Ian Kinsler have been matched by the good times of David Murphy, who, since his 0-23 start to the season, is looking like the David Murphy we cherish. His average is only at 226, but if you consider the fact that it was at 0 for most of April, then it seems more like he's hitting 326. I also like the fact that Murphy is showing patience at the plate. In only 84 at bats, Murphy already has 14 walks (but it’s not as impressive as Andruw Jones, who has 18 walks in 69 at bats) where as Ian Kinsler, who in over 100 more at bats, only has taken 19 free passes. I’m still disappointed that Murphy isn’t getting a lot of playing time (though it’s increased greatly since he found his swing), but I also understand Ron Washington’s situation in that he wants to get Jones and Byrd as much playing time as possible. In David’s mind, he just needs to think that he’ll be getting much more playing time in 2010 because both Byrd and Jones will be free agents. There have been talks that Murphy could be used as trade bait during July. This is based off of his early slump and the success of Byrd and Jones. But since both Byrd and Jones will indeed be free agents next year, then dealing Murphy would be a major mistake (though I would like to see what Julio Borbon can bring to the table). Trade debates aside, right now we just need to be glad that Murphy is actually hitting the ball with authority again. Pretty soon we’ll be saying the same about Ian Kinsler, too.

Tuesday: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

One of the cornerstones of the Mark Teixeira trade, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was (and still is) expected to be a star. As we all know, however, he's had his share of growing pains and has yet to really produce a "breakout" season. His struggles are demonstrated in Baseball Prospectus' scouting reports:

2008: "Ignore the sub-par showing. Saltalamacchia is still a future star."

2009: "Salty might have not blossomed like the fully-finished prospect you might wish he was, be he's still relatively young . . . "

If you take a look at it, Saltalamacchia is a bizarre hitter. Why?

**He has been able to sustain a ridiculously high BABIP throughout most of his career: .388 in 2008 and .352 so far this year. How does he do it?

**His line drive rate is also quite impressive: 27.2% of his batted balls in 2008 were line drives, quite similar to 27.6% so far this year. Now, the question is, why is he batting .252 with his high BABIP and LD%? Read on . . .

**His strikeout totals are staggering. Not quite Chris Davis staggering, but still somewhat troublesome. In 2008 he struck out in 37.4% of his plate appearances, and 36.1% this year. When he does make contact, he's likely to hammer the ball, but he doesn't make contact often enough to do much damage.

**Last year, Salty's OBP was a respectable .352, largely due to his high walk total. However, he (along with every Rangers hitter) seems to disdain walking in 2009, as demonstrated by his .305 OBP so far. This makes a little more sense when examining his contact rates: in 2009, he has swung at 35.4% of the pitches he's seen outside the strike zone (up from 26.2% in 2008). In other words, he's swinging at bad pitches more often.

Overall, I think it's important to keep in mind that Salty has only had 687 career plate appearances (roughly 1.5 seasons worth for a catcher), and he's still only 24 years old. His improved defense has been well noted this year and gives the Rangers more reasons to be optimistic and hang on to him. Perhaps all he needs is some more time . . . .

Monday: Fearsome Foes

It wasn’t just the rarity of the sweep over the Angels--rather, It was that the Rangers went 6-0 on their last home stand. The force of the team was a like hurricane, sweeping through everyone and blowing them away. Then onto Detroit, and the Rangers get swept away themselves in three games that came and went in a flash. So, was it back to the pit of death for the Rangers, who suddenly seemed flat and anxious? Logic might tell you yes, as the Rangers have a propensity to be very inconsistent, but fact tells us the opposite, as the Rangers ended up sweeping their next opponent, the Houston Astros. So now, heading into the big Memorial Day game against the Yankees, the question remains: are the Rangers going to falter against good teams? Because there are plenty of them coming up.

Interleague Play officially began last Friday, but it only really gets going in the middle of June, when AL and NL teams oppose each other regularly. For the Rangers, their opponents will be teams from the NL West. Normally this wouldn’t sound very harrowing, as the NL West has traditionally been a weak division, but this year Texas has to play the Dodgers, baseball’s best team. Luckily they won’t have to face LA at home, where they thrive, and thankfully they won’t have to face Manny Ramirez (though the Dodgers seem to be doing just fine without him). But the Dodgers are just one of several challenging teams the Rangers must face in the near future. As I said, they play the Yankees at home starting today, and the next week they play New York again at their stadium (I can't wait to see what the Ranger hitters can do in that park--Mark Teixeira actually hit a broken bat homerun there today). Then comes the Red Sox, who are always a difficult opposition for Texas, despite the fact that the Rangers have a better record than Boston does. And then comes the first place Blue Jays, who may or may not be playing good baseball again when the series comes. Then Interleague action begins, as the Rangers play the Dodgers. Then to wrap up the month, the Rangers play the Angels, who will probably be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Then in early July, the Rangers play Tampa Bay, a definite threat, even though they’re not playing as good as last year.

After taking a look at the Rangers’ formidable opponents, it becomes clear that June will be most telling month of the season, because it will let us know if this Texas team is for real, or just a team that loves to beat up bad ball clubs. Even though they got swept in Detroit by three terrific pitchers, I'm slowly beginning to lean toward the former.

Hello Win Column, Win #26: Lone Star Sweep!

Final Score: Rangers 5, Astros 0

Game box score and recap

Swept, Shut Out, Shamed from Astros Daily

"As is their modus operandi, the Rangers used the long ball to score runs. Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Jarrod Saltalamacchia took Mike Hampton deep in the first five innings. Hamilton was 3-for-4 to pace their offense."


This is Why We Call the Blog Disastros from The Disastros

"Ugh. I planned my afternoon around this game… And what happens?

Blanked by the Rangers.

Let me put that in context. Swept by the Rangers.

It was one of those games when we didn’t hit and we didn’t make any miraculous fielding plays either. It was one of those games when our starting pitcher gave up hit after hit and then our hitters countered with one pitch pop fly outs. "

Hello Win Column, Win #25: Rangers Seize Series from Houston

Final Score: Rangers 6, Houston 3

Game box score and recap

Interleague play boosts attendance from Spikes and Stars

"The way I knew this [series] was a sham was the FOX broadcast featured Josh Lewin . . . My experience featured the mute button . . . "

Rangers Swat Moehler, Astros from Astros Daily

"There was a time when Astros fans went crazy whenever a guy named Cruz hit a home run. But that was back when they wore bright orange shirts and played under a Dome. Now, it is Rangers fans than can yell CRUUUUUUUZ as they did twice on Saturday after Nelson Cruz belted his 10th and 11th homers of the season, leading Texas past Houston by a 6-3 count. "

The HWC weekly stattracker: take two

I had originally thought about attempting a write-up on Derek Holland's illustrious beginning to his major league starting career for this weekend's post... but a multitude of far more established (and intelligent) others, such as Jamey Newberg and Evan Grant are way ahead of me there. At this point I'm pretty sure there's nothing left that I could tell you that hasn't already been said, other than the fact that Derek Holland's transition to the majors has for the most part been awesome beyond my wildest dreams.

So instead I'll just roll out another edition of the Hello Win Column weekly stattracker, as I continue to try and tweak this idea further. (Bear in mind that as with last week, all the stats are a day behind (as of Friday) since Baseball Reference won't update with Saturday's #'s till extremely early Sunday morning.)

WHO'S HOT

Elvis Andrus
Season: .292/.331/.458 (105 OPS+)
Since 5/16: .389/.421/.722 (5 G, 20 PA)

Of all the pleasant surprises on this team in 2009, Elvis Andrus continues to be the biggest one. The eye-popping defense, all the balls in the hole and up the middle that would've been singles in 2008 (and for pretty much the last 4-5 seasons) being turned into outs, the second-among-MLB-shortstops 4.2 UZR... that was predicted, if not expected by many, myself included (okay, so maybe not the second-best UZR part, but you get the idea). But if you had told me before the season started that Elvis Andrus was going to be this teams second-hottest hitter for the month of May, I probably would've laughed.

Granted, his .328/.368/.547 line over the first 18 games this month is somewhat inflated by the dazzling 4-5 performance he turned in on Friday (that one game added over 100 points to his May OPS - and 60 to his season OPS) but that doesn't take away from how stunning it is to see a 20 year old shortstop who skipped AAA entirely is putting up a .915 OPS in just
his second month in the majors (it's still over .800, even without Friday's performance). And while you obviously can't expect him to put up insane numbers like that over the long haul, the thing to take away from this kind of a performance is that Andrus has yet to look overmatched against major league pitching - meaning the biggest, and perhaps only real reservation about his insertion into the lineup this year (and in the future) is fast being laid to rest.

Michael Young
Season: .345/.386/.564 (146 OPS+)
Since 5/16: .320/.346/.360 (6 G, 26 PA)

Another pick from the "pleasant surprises of 2009" category would have to be Michael Young suddenly mashing like it's 2005 again. Though Young's reputation may not make it seem as such, MY is having just the second truly great offensive season of his career so far, leading all starters in OBP and SLG (only Andruw Jones, who has just over half of the number of PA's has bettered him in either category so far).

He's been the kind of awesome you kind of wonder will continue - and hope and pray that it does. And if it's going to, hope and prayer might indeed be necessary. I mentioned last time how his acchilies heel has been hitting with RISP and men on base, which continues to be the case - turns out that might not be his biggest fault. Delving a little deeper, a couple things that raised my eyebrow: not only is he rocking the highest BABIP of any regular (.382) on the team, while he's also third worst in P/PA (3.54, which is 22 points below even his career average). His walk rate (6.3%) isn't really too far out of line with his career norms, but it's still his lowest since 2004 (and his career walk rates aren't that great to begin with). So don't get me wrong, it's not that I'm trying to hate on Michael Young - it's just that as great as it's been, most of what he's done so far has been driven by a high BA, which in turn is driven by a ridiculous BABIP, and the 7th-highest line drive rate in the Majors. Which makes me worried we're going to see him on the other side of these posts before too long (which, in turn, people will probably blame on his bum foot instead of his unsustainable peripherals regressing).

David Murphy
Season: .231/.326/.359 (80 OPS+)

David Murphy is a guy I probably should've gotten to in the previous week's stattracker, but didn't. Not to worry though, that just gives me more of a sample size to work with this time.

Yeah, the season numbers don't look like much. An 0-23 streak to start the season will do that to your numbers. Many a Rusty Greer comparison fell victim to that streak as well. Which is kind of amusing, because thanks to that streak, they actually might be realistic for the first time in Murphy's career. It appears being unable to hit the ball 23 straight times might've actually been a good thing for Murph, because it's allowed him to add a new weapon to his arsenal: discipline. His 12.8% BB rate is second on the team to only to Andruw Jones, and more importantly it's almost double what it was his first two seasons here in Texas. He actually leads the team in P/PA with 4.32.

And oh yeah, since that 0-23 streak ended, he's hitting .321/.375/.500.

That's right folks: the Murphinator is back, and he's reloaded. With walks. I never thought I'd say this in regards to a Ranger team whose biggest problem has been getting on base, but... David Murphy needs more playing time. If for no other reason than to see if this newfound patience is for real.

WHO'S... NOT

Ian Kinsler
Season: .287/.358/.556 (135 OPS+)
Since 5/16: 0.87/.222/.130 (6 G, 27 PA)

So yeah... I guess at this point Ian is no long "maintaining a torrid pace". In fact, he's gone careening into a brick wall - he sat yesterday, and I'm told you could almost see the little cartoon-style stars circling his head down in the dugout.

So what's happened? What was the name of that brick wall the size of the Hoover Dam? Well, as you may have heard by now: road trip!

For whatever reason, Kinsler has not hit very well away from the Ballpark in Arlington this year. In fact, with the exception of last season, not ever, really. He's a career .249/.319/.409 hitter on the road, and so far this year the split has been at it's most extreme: .165/.224/.308 in the road greys.

Truth was, Ian was doing fine up until our latest road swing - he was still hitting .302/.387/.556 for the month, and had 7 walks in his last 7 games. Since hitting the road for Detroit however, he's gone on a 1 for 18 bender that's sent those monthly numbers plummeting to .247/.330/.444. Our next homestand can't come soon enough.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Season: .252/.308/.405 (86 OPS+)

Saltalamacchia is really beginning to frustrate me. Last year he forgot how to hit for any sort of power and was terrible against lefties - but he learned how to walk and that, coupled with his numbers against righties boded well for the future. This year, he's forgotten how to walk and stopped hitting righties, leading to a small plummet of his OPS+. But hey, he's been great defensively... so one step forward, two steps back.

On the bright side, he is showing a little better eye of late... he has 7 walks this month after taking just two the entire month of April. That's still not nearly enough to fix his on base problems however, as his average has plummeted to .226 in May (from .276). Despite a crucial homer Friday, his slugging has plummeted too, down to .358 (from .448).

The problem appears to be that while he's maintained most of his patience (4.03 P/PA) he's lost his batting eye. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone (z-contact% of 83) is actually up slightly, but the problem is he's swinging at 35% of everything out of the zone (career high o-swing%) and only making contact 41% of the time (career low o-contact%). In some cases, there is a difference between just being patient and being selective, and lack of selectivity is what's killing Salty right now.

Chris Davis
Season: .209/.272/.453 (86 OPS+)
Since 5/16: .000/.100/.000 (6 games, 20 PA)

So much for Chris Davis's May rally. Since we looked at him last time, Davis has dropped into an 0 for 18 (it's actually up to 0-22 after yesterday) slump that has dropped him back to square one, and people back to questioning his ability to hit major league pitching. I don't really know what to say about Davis at this point except you still have to stay the course with him for the time being, IMO - he's still been stellar defensively at least, and Hank Blalock still sucks at getting on base too (although his 3-4 yesterday will have helped that some).

I'm just going to to stay patient, and enjoy wincing in pain at those mind-bending splits he does on the receiving end of Elvis Andrus throws for now. Either Davis will break out of his sophomore slump over the summer, and we'll have one helluva young 1B/DH combo with him and Justin Smoak... or Smoak will simply arise to the throne himself once he's ready. Either way, the outcome doesn't seem like a bad one.

Hello Win Column, Win #24: Rangers End Losing Streak in Extras in Houston

Derek Holland looks good in his first major league start, Elvis Andrus goes 4 for 5. Is the future here already?

Game boxscore and recap

I didn't find many recaps of the game in the Astros blogosphere, but there were a multitude of humorous game previews (I'll update as game recaps are posted, if at all):

(Game Preview) Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, May 22, 2009 7:05 PM CDT from Crawfish Boxes

"Paulino is facing off against one of the best offenses in MLB, so run prevention will be of the utmost importance. A few of these games each year turn into ridiculous football type score games, so it'd be nice to start off with a well pitched game from our young righty."

(Game Preview) I Shot JR, Bitch: Rangers @ Astros Preview from Spikes and Stars

". . . Since Dallas always shows such great hospitality (cough), it’s high time that we hospitalized them . . . .

They stole Nolan Ryan. F*ckers."

Hello Win Column, Win #23: Rangers in the Outfield: SWEEP!

The story of this game? Josh Hamilton's unbelievable catch at the wall.

Game box score and recap

Halos Lose and Swept by the Rangers from Halos Heaven

"Halos got swept by the Rangers. What a bummer, total bummer. Clearly, the Rangers were the better team . . .

In the past we were able to get by with small ball and keep the game close and trust our bullpen, but Scioscia clearly does not trust the pen anymore and has abandoned his own philosophy, in regards to this. The starters have not been the problem. The problem; the Angels Achilles heal, their offense and now compounded by their bullpen. What can we do to fix this? I don't know . . .

We got beat by the Rangers this weekend who both played small ball and hit for power and to pour salt in our wounds, they showed every glaring weakness this Angels roster has."

Friday Foto: Executive Privilege

From a purely non-political standpoint, I always loved that the President of the United States was a Rangers fan.

Wednesday: From Bad Times to Good Times

One has to admit that it is a ton of fun sitting around at a table with a group of friends and dirt talking about how terrible the local sports team is. But in our inner selves, we all know that what feels truly wonderful is being able to examine the ingredients that make a star team so special. In the past, we would be talking about the former, but as of right now, only the latter can come to mind for the assiduous Texas Rangers. With the exception of last night’s slight debacle (though Brandon McCarthy gave us hope for the second start in a row), the last few weeks have perhaps been the greatest showcase of great baseball we’ve seen from the Rangers in recent history.

It wasn’t even that long ago that we were feeling frustrated about this team, and then, like a blot from the blue, they came out and surprised everyone. “Shocked” might actually be a more appropriate word. What’s really incredible is that the Rangers seemed to have such a degrading morale during the middle weeks of April. I think what turned them around was confidence. Confidence is what made this team come to life. The talent was there; it’s just that they (and I know this is one of the most painful clichés in history) didn’t believe in themselves.

With a lead as high as 41/2 games, the Rangers have begun to generate a buzz around the Metroplex, as fans are beginning to assemble into the stadium at great speed. If my calculations are correct, the attendance during the Angels series over the weekend was highest total since 2004. Funny how this year is beginning to look a lot like that magical 2004 season, too. Not are the local fans recognizing the Rangers, but I think they’re beginning to make a national presence as well. Many know about the Rangers’ farm system seeing as they were ranked number 1 in all of baseball, but now people everywhere are beginning the see what is actually on display on the big league field.

There have been numerous moments of utter joy while watching this amazing Ranger run, and of all of them, I think the best has been listening to Eric Nadel’s voice on the radio. Eric, the most underappreciated broadcaster in the game, has always done a great job of covering up his disappointment when the Rangers don’t fulfill certain expectations. Well right now, he is letting the world know how thrilled he is to be a part of this team. The exuberance in his voice is electric, and he sounds happier than ever before, well, at least since I’ve become a Rangers fan. Hey, even Dave Barnett sounds excited.

Of all the Rangers that have been thriving during this hot streak, the most fun to watch has been Michael Young. He is having a monster of a month, and could very well end up with the player of the month honors if he keeps up his hot hitting. The only thing I lament over is that I traded him away on my fantasy baseball team. However, with the exception of Young, not a lot of the Rangers are hitting like they’re capable of during this spurt of great baseball. Ian Kinsler is playing solid, but not great, Chris Davis is still mediocre, Josh Hamilton has missed most of the games, David Murphy has been so-so, and Hank Blalock is hitting in the 230s, despite his 10 homeruns. Also, Nelson Cruz seems to have forgotten how to hit a long ball. But it actually feels nice to talk about something else than a blazing offense. That something else is the pitching. The team ERA has plummeted down to sixth in the league, and everyone seems to be going at least six innings. The bullpen has also been terrific. Frank Francisco unfortunately landed on the DL, but CJ Wilson has done a very nice job of filling in. Also, Darren O’Day has been one of the better stories of the bullpen this year, as he’s done everything the Rangers could want. And then there’s Derek Holland, who, despite one rough spot, has been pitching like a veteran All Star.

I said before, I want to see the Rangers keep this good baseball going through June before I accept the fact that they really are going for a spot in the playoffs. But for now, since it’s still May, I’m just enjoying this stretch of pure gold, chatting with friends about the glory of it all, and hoping that the Rangers can refute Benjamin Button’s line.

Late Monday Movie: Stephen Rannazzisi and Softball

JP told me about this video, but unfortunately I couldn't get the whole thing. But it's enjoyable nonetheless.

Jokes.com
Stephen Rannazzisi - Softball Team
dians.comedycentral.com
Joke of the Day Stand-Up Comedy Free Online Games

Monday: The Draft

The placement for the MLB draft couldn’t be at a better time. June is the month of the draft, which is when teams begin to truly realize if they’re really good, or if they just got sort of lucky during the first two months (our Rangers come to mind?). It’s a good time for the draft not only because June is sort of in no man’s land in relation to the other months (April and May are the “beginning” months, July is the half way point, and August and September are the “thrilling” months) but also because it gives the bad teams something to get excited about. I myself have never really gotten too keyed up about the draft, mainly because I know that it will still be quite a few years before I get to see the players who come out of High School. But in spite of my slight aversion to this anticipated event, I still find it marginally exciting, especially waiting to discover who will be chosen as the first round pick. So, for today, I have two pieces lined up. The first is a basic look at some of the Rangers’ draft choices, and the second is a look back at where the Rangers’ first round picks since 2000 are at now.

If I could select anyone for the Rangers’ to draft as their first pick, it would obviously be Stephen Strasburg, the endowed right-hander from San Diego. Actually, endowed might not be the proper adjective for this 20 year-old phenom. It might be more suitable to say he’s been extremely blessed by the baseball gods, and by extremely, I mean more than anyone in the history of the game. Now that’s just going by reports that Strasburg, who throws over 100 MPH, might be the one of the greatest pitchers in history. Strasburg also features an incredible changeup, as well as a tight slider to fool hitters after they see his fastball. Strasburg is 6’5,” which should make his mound presence all the more domineering. But enough of him, since we know that Washington will probably get the pick (luckily the Rangers likely won’t have to face him in the AL). So, as of right now, the projections have the Rangers potentially getting 3rd baseman Matt Davidson from Yucaipa High School in California, or Mike Leake, from Arizona State. According to the MLB draft report, Davidson is mainly a power hitter with an above average cut that should send balls over the fence on frequent basis. Davidson plays an average 3rd base and has okay speed on the base paths. To me he sounds like an archetypal power hitter, and not really someone I want to see in a Ranger uniform. Leake on the other hand sounds like a good fit for the Rangers. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (though it will occasionally reach 94-95 MPH), and he’s not a big guy (6’0,” 180 lbs), but he has four solid pitches on his arsenal: fastball, slider, curve, and changeup. And the best part is that he seems to have good control over all of them, which definitely makes him a potential asset to the Rangers in the future. Another name that piques the Rangers’ interest is Brooks Raley. Raley, a 6’3” lefty, is from A&M, which gives the Rangers even more reason to pick him. He doesn’t have a tremendous fastball, but his off-speed pitches are good enough to make him a sure bet in a Major League rotation before too long.

There’s just a little less a month before the draft, and we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. The Rangers don’t seem to have anyone who they desperately want, which makes this year’s draft not as interesting as ones in years past. But it will still be intriguing to see who gets chosen first, though whoever it is probably won’t generate the same sort of buzz as the Blake Beavans and Justin Smoaks of the world.

Now for part two, let’s take a look at where the first round picks made by the Rangers since 2000 are at in their current state of affairs:
2000. Scott Heard. Catcher. I don’t know what ever happened to Heard. The last I heard he was playing for Stockton, but that was several years ago. Let’s just say that he didn’t work out for the Rangers, or anyone else for that matter.

2001. Mark Teixeira. First Baseman. Need I say more?

2002. Drew Meyer. Second Baseman. Meyer put up some nice minor league numbers, but never really got a chance to play at the big league level. Ian Kinsler probably had something to do with that. I think Meyer came up once in 2006, but only for a few games. He’s since left the Rangers’ organization and joined the Astros’ minor league system.

2003. John Danks. Pitcher. Oh, the days of the DVD. Now that we have Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz in the future, it doesn’t hurt so bad, but man was it painful to see Danks flourish with the White Sox while Brandon McCarthy sat on the DL. Danks of course is still in Chicago, and probably the White Sox’ best pitcher.

2004. Thomas Diamond. Pitcher. Diamond, the only remaining member of the DVD package, has been battling injuries for the last few seasons. He’s still trying to make a comeback, though I don’t really see him fitting into the Rangers’ plans for the future.

2005. John Mayberry. Outfielder. Mayberry was one of those players who had the talent, but was never able to fully put it to use. He was recently traded to the Phillies for Greg Golson, a speedy outfielder.

2006. Kasey Kiker. Pitcher. Kiker is a small guy, but looked upon as one of the bright spots for the Rangers in the future. He’s currently pitching for AA Frisco.

2007. Blake Beavan. Pitcher Of all the Rangers’ first round picks, Beavan, an immensely talented right-hander, excites me the most (part of it might have to do with the fact that he’s from my hometown. My neighbor actually went to high school with him). Hopefully we’ll get to see him pitch sometime next year.

2008. Justin Smoak. First Baseman. We’ve talked about this guy a lot of late, so there’s nothing really more to say here.

The HWC column weekly stattracker

First of all folks, my apologies for last weekend's absence. I'm afraid I was a bit under the weather... watching this team this past week though has made for a nice cure, however. Good defense cures a lot of ills... just ask Darren O'Day.

I'm honestly not sure how much of a success my weekly game recaps have been though John Paul tells me they've done well... but honestly, their production has just been getting to be a bit much to handle (too much when you've got a fever and a freight train parked in your sinuses). So in the interests of keeping myself in rhythm every week, I've decided to look for some different directions to take my weekend posts, and today I'll be debuting the Hello Win Column weekly stat tracker.

As the title suggests, the idea was for me to keep an eye on the individual players instead of the games, and write about who's up and who's down each week. Since then however, I've come to realize there's a minor kink in the plan: Baseball Reference, home to the only sortable gamelogs I know of, doesn't update it's tables with the latest results until 5 am the next freaking morning. Which means every single one of these I would write is going to wind up being a day behind stat-wise. But hey, it can't hurt to experiment... so I figure I'll still do a few breakdowns of some select players this week who's recent results piqued my interest, and see how this goes - I don't mind being a day behind if my readers don't. So feedback's welcome... feel free to let me know if this is a feature you like (or hate, as the case may be).

Trending upward - Chris Davis

Overall line: .240/.298/.521

A lot of Ranger fans freaked over Davis's staggering strikeout totals and low contact rates that have pockmarked of a slow start to his sophomore campaign, but as was noted last week he's actually been pretty darned palatable since the first week of the season ended. Now, over the last week - in fact since the start of May, period - he's beginning to find his stride.

As of Friday, Chris is hitting .294/.333/.647 (15 for 51) for the month of May, with 8 of his 15 hits being for extra bases. 5 of those 8 XB hits are homers, and 4 of them have come in the last 7 days. And for those of you that dread the strikeouts, he's improved there, too: 19 strikeouts in 14 games on the month so far, as opposed to 34 over 20 games in April. That's lead to just three multi-strikeout games so far this month, as opposed to the staggering 11 he had April.

Bottom line is, Chris Davis' bat is finally coming around. And if he can keep socking homers to go along with the major league-leading 4.3 UZR he has at first base he's going to meet any rational expectations we could've had for him, strikeouts or no strikeouts.

Maintaining a torrid pace - Ian Kinsler

Overall: .318/.380/.622

After putting up a 1.422 OPS in his first 13 games of the season, it appeared Kinsler had cooled off in Aprils last week, OPSing just .477. Turns out that was just a temporary breather for opposing pitchers. Since May 1st he's hit .310/.373/.569 (good for a 942 OPS), and over the last week has shown some incredible patience (for a Ranger this year anyway) walking 6 times in 7 games (although 5 of those where split among 2 different games).

Overall, Kinsler has basically picked up right where he left off last year, and that's putting up near-MVP-type production - his 21.7 VORP is tied for 5th in major league baseball (with Marlins phenom Hanley Ramirez), which consequently means it's also tops among all major league second basemen right now.

The rookie surprise: Elvis Andrus

Overall: .275/.315/.412

I was absolutely stoked this offseason when we learned Elvis Andrus would be displacing Michael Young from shortstop - but I don't think even the most optimistic of us could've predicted that a 20 year old jumping from AA to the majors would be holding his own like this come mid-May.
Not only has Andrus been a defensive wizard at short, apparently ranking in the top 5 among shortstops in plus/minus according to Bill James online (to which I have no subscription, otherwise I'd give you more details than that admittedly vague endorsement) but he's shown more than just about anyone expected him to at the plate, so far blowing his .245/.299/.329 ZIPS projection out of the water.

And the thing is, he only seems to be getting better: after hitting .250/.288/.357 (645 OPS) in April (which honestly I would've been happy to see him simply maintain) he's rocking an 825 OPS so far in May (.304/.347/.478) and has been good for a .417 OBP his last 7 games. The result is his 4.2 VORP is currently first in the AL among all rookies with at least 50 PA's (and Elvis by the way also leads all AL rookies with 111 PA's).

Not to pull a Jim Knox moment, but if Elvis keeps icing the cake with that kind of unexpected offensive production... I think I might be in love.

I'm really not as clutch as I looked In April: Michael Young

Overall: .350/.393/.600

Okay, so maybe the above headline is kind of harsh for a guy who holds the third-highest OPS on the team and has hit a scary .442/.463/.615 in May. Don't get me wrong... I'm really impressed with what Michael Young has done this year (especially after two consecutive seasons of pretty mediocre offensive results). But as awesome as he's been so far, Michael Young was hitting 0.97/.200/0.97 with RISP as of Friday, and .220/.303/.475 with men on base overall. Which is... really odd, considering he's still money in a close game.

It's a nice consolation (a really, really nice one in fact) that he owns the team's second best OBP, which is great to have in that 2-slot... but the #2 guy still comes to bat in some of the games most important situations, and having a guy who's struggling this mightily to drive in runners in that #2 slot can't be helping this teams already meh efforts with men in scoring position this year.

*****

A couple of quick unrelated notes as I close things out tonight: Saturday's win made it 6 straight for the Rangers - if they can somehow make it 7 tomorrow against noted Ranger killer Jered Weaver, they'll not only have a 4.5 game lead in the AL West, they'll be the only team in the division over .500. Trivia question of the week: when was the last time that happened?

Feel free to cheat on that one, I'm sure you'll need to - I know I do.

Hello Win Column, Win #22: Rangers Beat Lackeyless Angels 5-3

Story of the game: John Lackey, ejected after two pitches. Also of note: Nelson Cruz's double was the only extra base hit of the entire game.

Game boxscore

John Lackey, Angels Bumped in Texas from Halos Heaven

"The Texas Rangers play in the nation's 4th largest media market and it is obvious that MLB wants to get the ratings going to bring in baseball dollars amidst Footballville. They have the umps completely getting in the way of player's establishing their game and a first inning ejection of John Lackey was the most obvious indicator that baseball intends to hand a mediocre organization a competitive edge thru treachery in order to more firmly take on the NFL deep in the heart of Texas . . .

May the farce be with you, MLB, the Rangers are 6 games over .500 for the first time since steroids were banned by baseball and are one urine specimen and a Tim Donaghy-style investigation away from their rightful place... and that would be fighting for third with Seattle.

Lackey was ejected after hitting Ian Kinsler. The plate-crowding cheat ended up scoring that inning to tie the game 1-1."

Editor's response: I understand that the whole purpose of a blog is to write your own opinions, but the writer of this article just comes across as an elitist, sore-loser Angels fan. I don't doubt that MLB would love to have a greater media presence in the DFW area, but insinuating that the umpires are slanting the game the Rangers' way is just ridiculous (even commenters on the same site agree). Especially for the Lackey ejection: Kinsler hit two home runs yesterday, and then gets thrown at (twice) to begin the game. Anyone looking at that situation rationally would at least suspect that it was intentional. In my opinion, Lackey wasn't thrown out because he threw at Kinsler. He got thrown out because he was stupid and made it too obvious; he didn't give the umpire much of a choice but to do something about it.

Hello Win Column, Win #21: Rangers Dominate Angels (except for 9th inning)

Everything looked good until Derek Holland had a meltdown . . . .

Game box score, recap

Rangers Send Angels Deep in the Red from Halos Heaven

"Angels fans will tell themselves that It was just one of those games where nothing went right, and they better hope this is the case, because if the Texas Rangers are as dominant as they were Friday night at home, the division will be all theirs . . .

All Star Joe Saunders was lit up by the Texas bats and Texas Semi-Ace Kevin Millwood benefited from two of the three Angel double plays in the game. Saunders didn't have to worry about his pitch count as he was delivering meatballs on the first pitch to Texas hitters who mashed them into spaghetti RBIs."

Hello Win Column, Win #20: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Believe it.

Game box score, recap

16-19, Game Notes from Lookout Landing

"Today's hockey games were good . . . .

Chris Davis, by the way, has the lowest contact rate of any regular in baseball. If ever there were a good time for Morrow to take something off of his heater, that was it. Instead he played right into Davis' hands, going to the same spot with the same pitch four consecutive times . . .

You can be as mad at Morrow as you want to be for effectively giving our season the ol' Tanya Harding. Keep in mind, though, that this heavily right-handed lineup managed all of two runs and five hits off of the mediocre left-handed Matt Harrison . . . "

Oh Baseball, You So Crazy! from Section 331

"I dated this guy for like 3 years. When we first met, it was all whirlwind and fun . . . Eventually, I found out that he had a HUGE meth addiction all along, and that was where all our money was starting to disappear to.

That was basically today’s game, in a nutshell."

That Was Far Too Predictable (Comments Section) from Bleeding Blue and Teal

"Morrow can blow 90% of the league away with his fastball, but the Rangers are loaded with prolific fastball mashers so he has to adjust his game plan."

Friday Foto: Separated at Birth?

Is it just me, or does Michael Young bear a striking resemblance to actor Carlos Bernard (a.k.a. Tony Almeida on 24)?

Hello Win Column, Win #19: Rangers 'Hammer' Through Mistakes in Walk-Off Win Over M's

Hank the Tank got in on the walk-off act. We beat the M's. We were able to overcome several key mistakes in the process. What a great win.

Game box score

Backbreaker from USS Mariner

"That’s a tough loss. Just like with Vargas last night, Washburn should get a medal for surviving Texas’ offense and ballpark. The offense was able to get a few longballs off of McCarthy, whose up-in-the-zone pitching style makes him the kind of righty we can actually score runs against, but the flaws of the offense got exposed late in the game.

Morrow… what can you say? His command sucks and he’s heavily dependent on the fastball. That doesn’t work against good hitting lefties, and the Rangers have a lot of good hitting lefties."

Washburn: no win, but no loss, either from Section 331

"The only thing that made the top of the 9th remotely inspiring was the fact that I like Darren O’Day; I can’t help it.

Morrow came in to face Texas’ finest, and while he was pitching fast, he was not pitching well . . .

I will be glad when we get out of Texas (which is something I have said pretty much every time I’ve physically been there, even). Even Felix starting tomorrow doesn’t instill confidence in me. Not today."

Hello Win Column, Win #18: Hambone Hammers Homer in 7-1 Win Over M's

Josh Hamilton is back, and he made his presence known.

Game boxscore, recap

Something Has to Change from Bleeding Blue and Teal

"There is no way that management hasn’t noticed that their ballclub cannot hit pedestrian right handers even if their collective lives depended on it. When will an adjustment be made to get some lefties in the lineup?"

The Bright Side from USS Mariner

"Yea, that sucked, but it wasn’t all that hard to see coming. As we’ve noted repeatedly, the Mariners roster is structured incorrectly, which leaves them essentially incapable of hitting pitchers like Scott Feldman . . .

. . . The Rangers are a great fastball hitting team, and [Vargas] has a below average fastball, so he didn’t even bother trying the whole “establish the fastball” crap. He went with his off-speed stuff, disrupted timing, mixed speeds and locations, and used the fastball as a complementary pitch . . . Just a smart, well pitched game by a guy who really had no business succeeding in that environment."

Wednesday: Excited? Hmmm...

The Rangers recently finished a 5 and 2 road trip (they did the same about this time last year) and the talk of the town (including local sports shows) is that the Rangers are in first place. So is it too early to get excited? Well there’s no harm in holding high hopes for the Rangers, but take a look at this time last year. The Rangers were only one game below 500 and only four games behind the Angels. This year, they’re three games above 500 and only a 1/2 game ahead of the Angels (though right now the Red Sox are leading the Angels in the 9th). This isn’t to take anything away from the Rangers, it's just that we have to consider the fact that the Angels are only now starting the really heat up and their team will only get better once they get some key players off the DL. That being said, I think it’s obvious that the Angels are a considerably weaker team than the ones we’ve seen in years past. Vladimir Guererro is no longer the player he once was (it’s hard to believe watching him now that he stole 40 bases one year), John Garland is gone, and most importantly, Francisco Rodriguez has left the American League, meaning we will no longer have to see him again. Mike O’Gulnick had a good line a few nights ago, saying that the Angels were like the Spurs: old and worn out. The ‘Ranger Era’ definitely is beginning to appear, and I think two years from now they will officially be leaving the rest of the West in the dust. But apparently they’re starting early, and though it’s May, are already making a case for a spot in the playoffs. Now that’s a bit of a contradiction, because I just said that the Rangers aren’t incredibly better off than they were this time last year. But the truth of the matter is that it’s hard not to feel extremely pleased and eager about this Ranger team, not because they’re hitting homeruns all the time, but because they’re getting the pitching that makes baseball teams winners. This time last year, it was the relentless offense that really carried the team. This year, it’s the pitching, both the rotation, led by Kevin Millwood, and the bullpen, by AL Saves leader Frank Francisco. So though I think that the Angels are going to have a great run pretty soon, I feel very optimistic right now. However, the mindset of the players is probably more realistic. I can guarantee you that everyone on the Rangers’ club, though aware of the standings, is just focused on winning one game at a time, staying focused, and trying not to think about the future. In the end that’s really the perspective to take, because not only is it reasonable, but it takes away some of the disappointment if the team ends up coming short.
Coming into the season, I don’t think anyone really expected the Rangers to be where they are now. The Athletics were said to be a contender this year, but so far they’ve looked terrible, especially offensively. Kurt Suzuki is their only real productive hitter at the moment, and the high hopes for Jason Giambi are beginning to dwindle. I think Oakland is due for a long winning streak later in the season, especially if they get Matt Holliday to start hitting like he usually does. But in the end I think it will be down the Rangers and Angels. I know the Mariners were in first place for a while, but I don’t really see them contending for the whole season.

I’ve heard a lot people, mainly typical, excited fans, say that this is the Rangers’ year to win. They say that because of the Rangers’ current hot streak. If they suddenly begin to struggle, then those people will suddenly quiet down. So, with all the hype surrounding the Rangers, my overall view is this: Traditionally, May is still considered ‘early’ in baseball season. So, to prove that this streak of good baseball isn’t bogus, I want to see the Rangers in this exact position or better by the end of the June. If they can do that, then I too will be taking out my rally cap and cheering them towards the postseason. Sorry if this post isn't very coherent. Been a long day...dead tired...time for sleep...

Hello Win Column, Win #17: Padilla One-Hit-Wonders AGAIN

Sorry for the pun in the title. I stole it from Josh Lewin. Sorry for that too.

Game box score, recap

And now to hear from the losing locker room:

Let's start off with this amusing game preview from South Side Sox:

"Vicente Padilla is a douche bag who has been teetering on the brink of "meh" for a few years now. He's off to a terrible start and nothing would make me happier than if we got to keep that going. The odds of him not throwing a pitch at A.J. are about as good as the odds of A.J. throwing someone out."

Fun times in Cleveland tonight! from Sox Machine

"Texas' staff boasted a 5.27 ERA before coming to Chicago. Now it's 4.90.

There's a good chance the Sox offense is the cure for bad pitching more than the other way around."

Colon has rare struggle vs. Rangers from WhiteSox.com

"The burly right-hander also carried a 12-game winning streak against the Rangers, the longest active winning streak for a Major League pitcher over one team, which quietly ended after he allowed five runs on five hits over 4 2/3 innings while walking three and striking out four . . .

'Very boring day -- very no-life day,' White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said."

Tuesday: Chris Davis Since April 13

Something I read in TR Sullivan's recent mailbag is an interesting addition to the ongoing Chris Davis conversation . . . . see his numbers since April 13: .268/.326/.598.

In fact, since April 13, Chris has hit safely in all but 5 games (pinch hit appearances notwithstanding). He has reached base safely via hit or walk in all but 2 games.

Not too shabby, except for the strikeouts.

I know that Chris is struggling in the strikouts department, but .268/.326/.598 and reaching safely in all but 2 games since April 13th is hardly enough to justify his benching or demotion to AAA.

(Author's note: I just realized that this is noted on LSB as well, but I'm going to post this anyways since we've been following Chris pretty closely here at HWC)

Monday Movie: Who's On First?

Even though the act isn't actually that funny, you have to admit that Abbott and Costello were a crazy talented comedy duo. It's fun just to watch their talent on display, especially when they're talking about baseball.

Monday: On Umpires

When I worked on the staff at a Boy Scout camp a few years ago, I sometimes helped out as the umpire in the wiffleball games that the campers participated in. It wasn’t a difficult job and it wasn’t very arduous either (partly because these were kids playing, and many of them didn’t care about the game), but at same time, I had my share of tricky moments. Though the ball was plastic and moved pretty slow, sometimes there would be a play at first base where I had difficulty making an accurate call. The angles had to be just right, and my sense of timing had to be extremely precise. This experience made me think about professional umpires in MLB. Not only do they have to deal with the high velocity of the ball, they also have to be prepared to take heat from the players and managers when they make a controversial call. And the worst part is that when they make a call that brings out tantrums from the players, often they know they probably got the call wrong (unless the player is someone like Eddie Milner, who argued what seemed like every call that went against him).

I think one of the most difficult elements in the life of an umpire, besides having to make the close calls, is the positioning on the field. If you watch a game, you’ll find that the umpires have a set pattern for the calling plays depending where the ball goes. If there’s going to be a close play at third base, the umpire must watch what’s happening, find his set position, and not get in the way of the play. And that’s not even the hard part, as he still has to make a difficult call if the play happens to be close.

Another difficult part of this job is studying and learning the MLB Official Rulebook. I own a copy of the text, and looking through it, I was amazed at how intricate it actually is. The book takes every possible scenario and has a complex explanation for each one. It is obligatory that the Umpires memorize these rules though, because there’s no telling when one of these plays might happen to occur.

Focus is another key element in an umpire’s job. The first and third base umpires must be mentally prepared to make a call at any given moment. What’s even more difficult though is that they must always watch the pitches to make sure if a hitter checks his swing or not. Imagine if a player tried to check his swing, but the umpire was wandering and didn’t pay attention. Never seen it happen, meaning their focus remains steady for all nine innings.

Another factor, mainly for the home plate umpire, is the risk of getting injured. Foul balls often hit umpires, and though they wear masks, the suffering they go through is always perceptible. But that’s not the worst of it. We recently saw Kerwin Danley get hit by a bat broken bat by the Rangers’ own Hank Blalock. Danley was taken off the field and hospitalized, though luckily not seriously injured.

With all of the demands and difficulties umpires face, what’s probably most discouraging about the job is that they’re never cheered, and when they make a good call they’re ignored, and when they make a bad call, they’re booed ad infinitum. But there must be some love for the job because otherwise people wouldn’t do it. I think the central reason for pursuing it is for love of the game. People love the sport of baseball, and by becoming a great umpire they’re helping the game out, because great umpires are what make it all work.

Also, though the average fan does not hold much respect for the umpires, any real fan of baseball will recognize names like Jerry Crawford, Joe West, and Mike Reilly, all of whom have served at least 25 years in the Major Leagues. These umpires are important members of the game, and will leave an inevitable legacy.

I admire every single umpire, because not only is their job extremely strenuous, but also they possess great skill, which unfortunately isn’t appreciated as much as it should be. If you want a good story on what the life of umpires is really like, MLB.com published a terrific article that can be found here.

Hello Win Column, Win #16: Dirty Harry: Harrison Shuts Out Potent Chi-Sox Offense

Wow.

Game Boxscore, Recap

Now let's hear from the losing locker room:

Matt Harrison is a Left-Handed Sonnanstine from South Side Sox

Jose Contreras is broken from Sox Machine

"I can pinpoint the exact moment where I threw in the towel for Jose Contreras' near future -- and nothing even happened on the play.

In the second inning of Friday night's 6-0 loss to the Texas Rangers, two outs, Omar Vizquel at the plate, and runners on first and third, Contreras screamed:

"I AM AFRAID OF PITCHING!"

...by trying one of those fake-to-third, throw-to-first deals.

Then, add in these two factors:

Two outs!

Two outs and Omar Vizquel!

He stalled despite that hitter being Vizquel, the one guy on the field who might be older than Contreras, and the guy who slugged .267 last year. He was trying to figure out another way to get out of the inning besides pitching his way out of it."

Friday Foto: The AL West

And . . . . THAT happened.

Thursday: "Straight ball, I hit it very much . . . . "

Continuing the discussion that we've made about Chris Davis, I feel it's only appropriate to start out with this classic video clip from Major League. As it turns out, Pedro Cerrano (played by Dennis Haysbert, i.e. President Palmer on 24) has similar struggles at the plate:

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Here are Chris' pitch breakdowns from this year (courtesy of billjamesonline.com):

To date, Chris has seen 375 pitches this year; he has swung at 187 of them (49%), and taken 188 of them (51%). (In 2008, the percentages were 46% taken, 54% swung.)

Of the pitches that he has swung at, he has missed 43% of them. (In 2008, 32%).

Of the pitches that he has swung at, only 63% of them have been in the strike zone. (In 2008, 64%).

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The only noticeable discrepancy here is his contact rates from 2008-2009. As you can see, he is coming up empty at a much more rapid pace (43% in 2009 to 32% in 2008). When he actually makes contact, his BABIP is .275 (the league average is about .300), down from a monstrous .353 in 2008 (which I referred to in this post about BABIP several months ago). We can conclude that (1) he's not making contact as often, and (2) when he is making contact, he's not getting any breaks. We can expect his BABIP to approach league average over the course of the season, but his sharp contact percentage decline is certainly cause for some concern.

My first inclination would be to assume that he is being pitched much differently this year, i.e. as pitchers are adjusting to him, he hasn't been adjusting back. Perhaps this has been the case, but on the whole, he's being pitched exactly the same:

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Year--Pitch--% (courtesy of fangraphs.com)

2008--Fastball--55.3% 2008--Curveball--11.4%
2009--Fastball--56.5% 2009--Curveball--11.9%

2008--Slider--16.7% 2008--Changeup--9.8%
2009--Slider--13.9% 2009--Changeup--8.3%

There is an alarmingly high percentage of pitches for 2009 that have been termed as "unknown": 10.8%. This could possibly be skewing the data, or it could just be a data entry fluke. Or a secret new pitch that's being used to strike Chris out.
*******************************************************

Overall, it's not terribly surprising for a player like Davis to have a stretch like this. He's a power hitter who strikes out a lot but doesn't walk much. When players like this have a slump at the plate, they don't have the benefit of (1) walks (because they don't walk) or (2) BABIP/luck (because they don't make much contact). For instance, when a player like Michael Young is slumping, he still catches some lucky breaks by virtue of some well placed ground balls. When a player like Milton Bradley is slumping, he works his way onto the bases every now and then by virtue of walks and patience at the plate. Davis has neither of these going for him.

While this streak is worrisome, Chris will undoubtedly pull himself out of it. The truth is, with his low-contact, no-walk style, we should excpect to see stretches like this (though perhaps not as long) throughout his career.

Hello Win Column, Win #15: First Place!

The Rangers are in first place at a time other than the first week of the season. It's a good feeling.

Game box score, recap

Let's hear from the losing locker room:

What's Good for Giese, is Not Good Enough for the A's from Athletics Nation

"Well the A's got all they could ask for from spot starter Dan Giese, who gave the Green and Gold 5-2/3 solid innings, but it wasn't enough . . .

The second inning epitomized the A's woes at the plate this season. Rangers' hurler Scott Feldman sandwiched two outs around a Jack Cust single. With Travis Buck at the plate, Cust broke for second, only to see Buck hit the ever-popular inning-ending single after the ball struck his teammate . . .

Not once did Giese retire the Rangers in order but kept his club close by working out of minor trouble in the second, third, and fifth. He exited with two out in the sixth having given up three runs on eight hits. He walked none, and struck out three . . .

Ugh . . . for the A's, it was another case of so close, yet so far."

Wednesday: Is there Smoak on the Horizon?

In the comments on Monday’s post, there was a little debate over whether the clock is ticking on Chris Davis’ time with the Rangers. The speculation is due largely to the fact that Davis is striking out at a meteoric pace (he struck out three more times in today’s game) and that his approach at the plate seems slightly lackadaisical. He takes big sweeping cuts and seems to either strike out or hit homeruns. However, I agree with both of the arguments presented. The first is that Davis’ lack of production will cause the Rangers’ to replace him with hot prospect and first round pick Justin Smoak, who is also a first baseman. The second is that Davis is only in his second big league season, and that he needs a little more time to adjust before the Rangers close the curtain on him (plus Smoak needs time to prove himself in the minors).

The reason Smoak, despite his aptitude to hit like a machine, is being talked about as “major league ready” is because he was drafted out of College rather than High School. Smoak is already 22 years old, and almost ready to hit Major League pitching. Smoak’s situation and style of play bears much resemblance to Mark Teixeira’s. Teixeira was around the same age as Smoak when the Rangers drafted him, and he ended up only needing one season in the Minors before he was ready. Obviously there is a lot of expectations coming from this kid, but the same can be said for Davis. In an interview with the Dallas Morning News, Tom Hicks predicted that Smoak will be an All-Star. But USA Today predicted that Davis will be among the league leaders in homeruns this year. So there’s a lot of high hopes coming from both of these kids, and though Davis’ situation is slightly frustrating right now, I think he’ll get the rest of this season to prove himself worthy. Smoak is in a similar boat, as his offensive production this season will be telling as to whether he’ll be considered for the club in 2010. If Davis’ struggles carry out through the entire season, and Smoak destroys the ball in the minors, we may hear Chris’ name come up in trade talks during the off-season. But if Davis can somehow ease up on the strikeouts and raise his average, then the Rangers may wish to keep him at first next year and put Smoak in at DH, assuming Hank Blalock is gone.

I’m a fan of Chris Davis, and we all saw from last year that he is better than what he’s showing right now. Right now Chris Davis looks a lot like Adam Dunn. But when there’s a smoaking prospect heating up the minors, and just waiting to come up the big leagues, Adam Dunn-like baseball is not enough. Chris Davis needs to 'up' his game a few notches if he wants to stay in Texas. Then again, I don't know what's going on in Jon Daniels' mind. Maybe he's scheming something completely different. But regardless of the plans in the front office, it’s still a challenging situation for Davis, and I’m sure he’s just as aware of it as I am. But I myself am not ready to write him off until I see more of Smoak and what he’s really capable of doing.


Note: for those of you who have just recently started reading HWC, I'm Thomas Lowery, under the pseudonym 'the author,' which I mean to change if I can.

Hello Win Column, Win #14: Padilla is Masterful as Rangers Top M's in Extras

Vicente Padilla, he of the 7.20 ERA at gametime, badly needed to pitch well tonight. And he did -- 8IP 1H 3BB 4K. Padilla is now he of the 5.71 ERA -- not exactly eye candy, but much better.

It's not everyday you see a pitcher -- much less a Rangers pitcher -- much less Vicente Padilla -- allow only 1 hit through 8 innings (and leave with no decision).

Also, tough day for Michael Young on the bases: 1 pickoff (by Bedard), 1 out at home (assist by Balentien).

Here's the link for the box score, game recap.

But enough about the Rangers, let's hear from the Mariners fans:

15-12, Game Notes from Lookout Landing

"The only thing worse than having to bring in a replacement-level reliever to face the Rangers in the tenth inning of a tie ballgame is having to bring in a replacement-level reliever who's fatigued . . . . There's no way you can turn to a below-100% Denny Stark against the Rangers in a tie game with any kind of confidence, and we wound up taking it straight on the chin . . . . Bedard was virtually flawless today . . . Bedard isn't going to face many better lineups than the one he saw today, and he destroyed it."

Game 27: Rangers at Mariners from USS Mariner

"You know how I keep harping on the roster being too right-handed and how it’s costing us wins?

Padilla, career vs RHB: .241/.300/.370
Padilla, career vs LHB: .299/.381/.484

The Mariners are starting seven right-handed bats and two left-handed bats today. Yea."