Rangers Recap: Week of Feb 22-28

This week has been the first week that I've written completely original posts, straying from what I did in the first few weeks of this blog's existence (where I mostly recapped the baseball events of the previous 24 hours).

I'm going to start doing a weekend recap to review the posts of the previous week. Here we go . . .

To recap the week:

Sunday: Did You Know . . . ? Kris Benson Edition

Monday: On Andruw Jones

Tuesday: Fun with Similarity Scores

Wednesday: Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

Thursday: BABIP Revisited

Friday: Welcome Back, Baseball

I am also starting the following weekly "traditions", mostly for the sake of entertainment and alliteration:

Monday Movie Clip (this week's was George Carlin)

Tuesday Trivia (no trivial this week, since I just started it)

Friday Foto (this week's was the Stottlemyre Family)

Rangers Recap (this post!)

If you can think of any cool phrases involving alliteration for Wednesday or Thursday, then please post the ideas in the comments section!

Thanks to all who have visited so far. I hope you like what you have been reading.


Go Rangers!

Friday: Welcome Back, Baseball

Amidst all of the posts I have written this week, I neglected to mention the biggest news: Spring Training has started. Baseball is back.

I don't care that this is "only" Spring Training--the fact that the outcomes of the games don't matter does not bother me. As the immortal Sandy Koufax said, “People who write about spring training not being necessary have never tried to throw a baseball.”

Hearing Eric Nadel's voice crooning over the airwaves for the first time in five months was the best moment of my week. I was hanging on every word between his trademark phrases that bookend every game: "Hello there everybody, I'm Eric Nadel" and "So long, everybody." And just think: we have at least seven more months of this. Everyday. (I love football, but who likes to wait a week between games?).

I love everything about the start of the baseball season. Everything from stadiums overplaying baseball classics like "Centerfield" and "Glory Days" to baseball and softball games springing up in parks all over town. From freeing your gloves from their winter hibernation to hearing Josh Lewin's latest pop-culture reference. It's all great.

Forget March 21 -- or whenever spring "officially" starts. New rule: Spring starts when baseball starts (and winter begins when baseball ends). Sounds good to me.

Here's to a great 2009 season in Major League Baseball (and hopefully in Texas Rangers baseball, too). In the words of the late great Harry Caray, "[the] season is coming, the good times are gonna roll.”

Welcome back, baseball.

Friday Foto: The Stottlemyre Family

Todd Stottlemyre pitched in the major leagues from 1988-2002, and he pitched for the Rangers in 1998. I know that his brother and his father are different people, but had I not know that, this screenshot from Todd's baseball-reference page would raise some serious questions about the Stottlemyre family. Instead it just makes me laugh (specifically the line at the bottom):

Muchas Gracias

Many thanks to Joey Matschulat and all the folks at Baseball Time in Arlington who have graciously included a link to this blog in the "Links" portion of their website. I am a tremendous fan of the great work that they do over there. Be sure that you stop by and check out their site if you haven't already. You can admire the link here.

Also, welcome to Hello Win Column for any of you out there who may have followed that link to reach this site for the first time. This blog has been up and running for exactly a month as of Friday, and site traffic is increasing everyday. Please feel free to read, comment, and make suggestions as you like.

Here are the links to the posts that you need to catch up and learn about the gist of this blog:

Welcome: The First Post

New Blog Title, New Format

Thanks for stopping by!

John Paul

Thursday: BABIP Revisited

To follow up on yesterday's post about BABIP for pitchers I thought we could examine the statistic through an offensive lens. It works slightly differently for hitters: the league average of .300 is not always helpful when examining a hitter's BABIP. For instance, Ichiro has a career BABIP of .356. Instead of being the result of a terrible amount of luck over his entire career, this is due to the fact that he is a terrific hitter. On the other hand, it has been shown that (up to a certain point) pitchers have little to no control over their BABIP. In other words, hitters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers do. Nevertheless, extraordinarily high or low BABIPs can still be used to predict future performance.

Most of the BABIPs for Rangers hitters from 2008 were as expected, but the following cases were somewhat surprising:

Milton Bradley: 2008 BABIP: .396 Career BABIP: .326

First of all, I expect a hitter of the Milton Bradley variety to have a high BABIP to begin with: he works the count to wait for the right pitch (4.00 PPA in 2008), swings and misses a lot (25.7% of the times he swung in 2008), and he mashes the ball when he does connect (.563 SLG in 2008). It certainly helped that he stung more line drives (24.7% LDs, more than the previous 4 seasons). But it doesn't matter who is being considered: George Brett, Tony Gwynn, Ted Williams, Ichiro Suzuki; a .396 BABIP is incredible (and most likely unsustainable). Especially when considering that Milton's 2008 mark was 70 points higher than his career BABIP. I concur with Bill James, who predicts that Bradley's 2009 BABIP will regress to a .341 mark (much closer to his career total). This means, of course, that Bradley probably won't hit .321 again. Fortunately for the Cubs, however, that still isn't too shabby.

Ramon Vazquez: 2008 BABIP: .355 Career BABIP: .315

To Vazquez's credit, he did hit more line drives in 2008 than ever before in his career (27.3% LDs) and significantly fewer fly balls (26.4% FBs compared to 35.6% in 2007). His luck started to catch up with him at the end of the season, however, as he hit .208/.317/.226 in August and .133/.235/.200 in September. Look for his BABIP to regress to .315 and for his batting average to return to his career average of .257.

Other players with notable BABIPs, but not enough career data to be significant:

Chris Davis: 2008 BABIP .353
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 2008 BABIP .388
Taylor Teagarden: 2008 BABIP .409
Jason Botts: 2008 BABIP .222

Wednesday: Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) measures the opponent's batting average on all batted balls that the defense manages (in other words, foul balls that are caught for outs and everything fair except for homeruns, ground rule doubles, etc). It is often used as a measure of the strength of the defense behind the pitcher, and how high or low it is can be used to predict how a pitcher might perform in the future. The league average is generally floats within a few points of .300.

It can also be used as a measure of a team's defense over the course of the season: the Rangers as a team posted a .322 BABIP in 2008, worst in the majors. In contrast, the defense-conscious Tampa Bay Rays grinded out a .285 BABIP, best in the majors. Think of how many runs that saves (or adds).

While sifting through the Rangers team BABIP statistics today, everyone's looked about as expected except for those of Kevin Millwood and Eddie Guardado:

Eddie Guardado: 2008 BABIP (with Rangers): .240 Career BABIP: .290

I have to admit that I was surprised with "Everyday" Eddie's strong season in 2008. It was great; he's the scrappy underdog that we all root for inside. But perhaps he got a few too many lucky bounces this last season, as showcased by his .240 BABIP with the Rangers in 2008. His luck started to catch up with him when he arrived in Minnesota, however, which his .427 BABIP from that point on suggests. Look for Eddie's 2009 BABIP to regress towards his career BABIP of .290, and hence for his ERA to inflate as well.


Kevin Millwood: 2008 BABIP: .366 Career BABIP: .308

Are you kidding? .366? The only pitcher on the 2008 Rangers that was worse was Luis Mendoza (with a sparkling .385). So, when the ball was put in play against Millwood last season it was like Ichiro was at the plate. Believe it or not, this isn't much worse than his .348 BABIP in 2007. And it's not as if this is a career trend: his career BABIP is fairly average at .308. Unsurprisingly, the only two seasons that Millwood has posted an ERA of higher than 5.00 have been the last two seasons. Millwood has suffered from bad luck and bad defense long enough -- it is time for a change. Look for Millwood's lofty .366 BABIP to regress towards his career average of .308. Along with our (supposedly) shored up defense, this should go along way towards an improved Kevin Millwood in 2009.

Tuesday: Fun With Similarity Scores

Many of you are probably already familiar with baseball-reference.com's similarity scores. The concept of similarity scores was initially created by Bill James to compare players eligible for Hall of Fame consideration to players already in the Hall. It has been generalized to all players as a means of, well, finding players who are similar to a given player. Baseball-reference.com has a feature which automatically computes the top 10 most similar players to a given player overall and the top 10 most similar players by the given player's current age.

I have my hallway wallpapered with the complete set of 1984 Topps baseball cards and happened across Ron Washington's card for one of his years with the Twins.

Wash's numbers weren't great, but I was curious to see how the rest of his career turned out. In doing so, I found on baseball-reference.com that Ron Washington's #4 most similar player is Ramon Vazquez. My first reaction was: "so that's why Vazquez got so much playing time." This sparked the idea to see which Rangers were "similar" to current or former Rangers. Here is what I found:

The infield:

**Ian Kinsler's most similar hitter #5 by age 26 is former Ranger second baseman Alfonso Soriano.

**Michael Young's most similar hitter #7 by age 31 is former Ranger second baseman Julio Franco, the last man to win a batting title for the Rangers before Young.

**Hank Blalock registered two former Rangers as most similar hitters: #8 is former third baseman uber-prospect Fernando Tatis (who had a decent season with the Mets in '08), and #9 is the recently departed Milton Bradley.

The outfield:

**Marlon Byrd's most similar hitter #9 through age 30 is former Ranger third baseman Mike Lamb.

**Good ol' Rusty Greer showed up twice: somewhat unsurprisingly, is David Murphy's #2 most simliar hitter. That's not all, however, as Greer is also Josh Hamilton's #10 most similar hitter by age 27. I did not see that second one coming . . .

Pitchers:

**Vicente Padilla's most similar pitcher #5 is former Rangers starter (and current Rangers Spanish radio broadcaster) Jose Guzman.

**Brandon McCarthy's most similar pitcher #7 by age 24 is our Japanese correspondent, Kameron Loe.

**Kevin Millwood's most similar pitcher #3 is former Ranger (for half a season) starter Todd Stottlemyre.

**CJ Wilson's most similar pitcher #8 is former Ranger LOOGY Eric Gunderson.

Hitters signed to Minor League Contracts in the offseason:

**Andruw Jones' most similar player #1 by age 31 is, predictably, Sammy Sosa. #10 is El Caballo, Ruben Sierra.

Pitchers signed to Minor League Contracts in the offseason:

**Eddie Guardado's most similar pitcher #9 is former Rangers closer Jeff Russell. His most similar pitcher #7 by age 37 is Mike Stanton.

**Kris Benson's most similar pitcher #5 is former Rangers gopher-ball specialist Adam Eaton.

**Derrick Turnbow's most similar pitcher #5 is former Rangers reliever Danny Kolb (remember the pitch Kolb called the "Vulcan"?).

**Jason Jenning's most similar pitcher #10 is Adam Eaton, who seems to be fairly "popular" around these parts. His most similar pitcher #2 by age 29 is the recently departed Jamey Wright.

And, just because it hurts . . .

**Almost-Ranger Ben Sheets is similar to two former, though very forgettable, Rangers: his #3 most similar pitcher is Oil Can Boyd, and his most similar pitcher #8 by age 29 is Ismael Valdes. His most similar pitcher #9 is former Rangers pitching coach Dick Bosman.

BACK TO MAIN PAGE

Monday: On Andruw Jones

It appears that Andruw Jones may find playing time easier than any of us imagined: Marlon Byrd and Brandon Boggs have been sidelined for the first intrasquad game because of injury. It seems like a good time to predict how Jones will play this year, whether he ends up with the Rangers or not . . .

For the past three years, Jones has plummetted noticeably in the following categories ('06 -- '07 -- '08):

AVG: .262 -- .222 -- .158

OBP: .363 -- .311 -- .256

SLG: .531 -- .413 -- .249

BABIP: .270 -- .248 -- .231

He has risen noticeably in the following category ('06 -- '07 -- '08):

Strikeout %: 22.5 -- 24.1 -- 36.4

My thoughts on the possibility of his resurgence:

**It's quite obvious at this point that he has nowhere to go but up.

**His BABIP has plummetted, but that's not terribly surprising since players in slumps typically don't hit the ball very hard. Given that league average is generally around .300, and his career BABIP is .282, look for his batting average to jump up a bit.

**It seems that when veteran players have an uncharacteristic year statistics-wise, they return to their usual career line the next year. Here is an example of both (not to imply that two examples is sufficient evidence to support this assumption, but instead just to briefly demonstrate a point; if anyone has any other examples of seasons like this, post them in the comments section and I will include them):

Gary Matthews in 2006 (uncharacteristically good):

2006: .313/.371/.495
2007: .252/.323/.419
Career: .259/.333/.412

Jermaine Dye in 2003 (uncharacteristically bad):

2003: .172/.261/.253
2004: .262/.329/.464
Career: .276/.338/.491

**Based on trends of this nature, here is my semi-scientific 2009 prediction for Andruw Jones, along with his 2008 stats:

2008: .158/.256/.249
2009: .249/.333/.468
Career: .259/.339/.489

He will have a decent season, and the national media will most likely declare his performance a "resurgence". It looks to be a 2007 Sammy Sosa type season, which was also declared by many in the national media to be a "resurgence".

I don't see how he can be part of our future plans, however, other than being trade bait. If he's of any worth this year it's likely that his asking price will greatly increase going into the offseason, and he won't be worth it anymore.

Monday Movie Clip: George Carlin

George Carlin's rant about the differences between baseball and other sports, mostly football. Maybe it's just me, but he seems to prefer football . . .

Sunday: Did You Know . . . ? Kris Benson Edition

The arrival of Kris Benson marks yet another minor league deal the Rangers have completed in this blockbuster offseason. I am somewhat familiar with Benson, in that I knew he was once a highly regarded prospect in the Pirate's system. He fell off the map a few years ago, though, so if you are looking to catch up on the Kris Benson "buzz", here you go:

**Benson was the first overall pick out of Clemson University in the 1996 draft, selected by Pittsburgh

**His career statistics are here.

**He last pitched in the big leagues in 2006 with Baltimore, where he posted a 4.56 ERA, 183 IP, 11-12 W-L

**Baseball-reference.com lists his 5 most similar pitchers as Bronson Arroyo, Willard Nixon, Aaron Harang, Carl Pavano, and Adam Eaton. Benson also reminded me of our very own Jason Jennings. What do all these guys have in common? They tend to have average ERAs and eat up innings (when they are healthy). Most of them also have a nasty gopher-ball habit (see next point).

**In his last 2 full seasons in the big leagues (2005-2006 with the Mets and Orioles), Benson gave up an average of 28.5 HRs per season. Uh oh.

**Baltimore traded John Maine to the Mets to get Benson before the 2006 season. Whoops.

**Benson throws the three standard pitches, mixing in a cut fastball every now and then.

**The only things for which he has been ranked top 5 in the league over his career are for sacrifice hits (won't come in useful at all), complete games (ok, so this one isn't bad), losses (sigh), and home runs allowed (no comment).

**He once faced Kosuke Fukudome while the two played for their respective countries in the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta. You can watch it here.

**His wife is former Playboy model Anna Benson.

I can't recall an offseason with this many minor league signings of veteran players. My take on the situation is that the Rangers don't want to rush any of the talent in the minors in the event of an injury. If you remember, last year we had to resort to guys like Elizardo Ramirez. While guys like Jennings and Benson may not be great, it's better to fall back on them than someone like Ramirez, or to rush guys like Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz before they are ready. Benson's signing is a pretty low risk move all around, so it's hard to feel strongly in either direction. Let's hope he makes an impact for the Rangers or just stays in the minors.

Around the Horn: TR Sullivan has a funny story about Eddie Guardado in Spring Training; Ron Washington gives advice to Sweet Lou and the Cubs about Milton Bradley; Sports Illustrated takes a look at Nolan Ryan's influence so far;

First exhibition game is this Wednesday!

New Blog Title, New Format . . .

Whew. It has been a crazy week. I've spent most of my time working on this for a mathematics seminar talk that I gave yesterday, and I haven't had much time to write. Things should return to normal this week.

Notice anything different? Like the new title? If you remember in my first post, this was the blog title that I've always wanted. However, the URL hellowincolumn.blogspot.com is already taken and was only posted to once several years ago. The author of that site has not responded to my requests that he relinquish the URL of his neglected blog, so I'm just going to keep my current URL and change the title.

Additionally, I'm thinking about changing the content of my posts a little bit. I realized that my daily "Around the Horn" bits largely include articles that can be found on other sites. Sites like LoneStarBall.com do a great job of covering breaking Rangers news and include tons of links. So, essentially, I'm not really adding anything new in that regard.

From now on I'm going to try to include more "original" content in my posts. As a consequence, I may neglect to mention the latest TR Sullivan article, or the latest update from the Star Telegram. But everyone who reads this blog probably has already read those by the time they visit my site anyways. I may base my post off of something that I read elsewhere and include a link, but to avoid repetition I'm going to attempt to try something more original. I'm not saying I'm going to be Bill James all of a sudden, but the hope is that you can read analysis and writing here that you can't find elsewhere. We'll see how it goes.

This is a bit of a risky move, in my mind, because these posts have garnered 700+ viewings for this site so far, which is many more viewings than I expected at this point. The modest "success" of this blog has been very encouraging and motivating for me, so hopefully those of you out there who follow this blog will welcome this slight change in direction and continue to stop by. And don't worry, I plan to continue to update the site as close to everyday as is possible.

Go Rangers!

John Paul

Around the Horn: Thursday (Night)

Just a couple of things of note out there today . . .

USA Today wrote a nice article about Michael Young's move to third base. Despite all the criticism out there about Michael Young, he has been my favorite player for almost his entire tenure with the Rangers. This excerpt reminded me why:

Although he originally asked to be traded, Young said his heart wasn't in the request."One reason why I wanted to come back is I wanted to see this through," Young said. "I'm going into my ninth year with the Rangers so when this team turned it around I wanted to be there for them. I want to be one of the main contributors."

Also of some interest, the Indians designated Andy Marte for assignment. Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball wrote:

You have to wonder if, as a Dominican who was terrific at the lower levels at a young age but seemed to have plateaued, he isn't really 28 or 29. At ages 18-21, while being young for his levels, he consistently put up 800+ OPS numbers, but simply hasn't hit in the majors (and, really, hasn't hit that well in AAA the past couple of years).

Why is this of interest? Nelson Cruz is also a Dominican with great minor league numbers and not-so-great major league numbers . . .

And TR Sullivan has some fun facts and quotes posted on his blog . . .

One week until Spring Training!

Turn Back the Clock: Frankie Francisco

We all remember this incident, right?

Incidents like that, though more likely to happen to the Dallas Cowboys, sure make you proud to be a Rangers fan. If nothing else, it's a not-so-sentimental blast from the past to see a bunch of players in Rangers uniforms that are no longer with the team.

It turns out that the decision to hang on to Francisco worked out well for both sides. As a result, Francisco is very grateful that the organization stuck with him and is ready to repay the Rangers for their support.

Around the Horn: Tuesday (Afternoon)

We already knew that Eddie Guardado was going to skip out on playing for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. Yesterday, TR Sullivan posted that Luis Mendoza will not play for Mexico in the Classic either. Too bad for Mexico, they could have used someone who posted an 8.67 ERA and a 3-8 record last year in the majors. Also too bad for Team USA.

Hank Blalock and Marlon Byrd will be introduced to new roles: Blalock as the DH, Byrd as the self proclaimed "I don't know -- fifth outfielder?". Baseball Time in Arlington revisits exercising Blalock's club option, and TR Sullivan thinks that Byrd's knee surgery may be more of an issue than previously let on. Kason Gabbard will also try out new digs in the bullpen, as the starting rotation is already set to be Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, McCarthy, Harrison. I imagine we will have Jason Jennings sighting in the rotation at the first hint of the need for a sixth starter to step in.

Michael Young is sure that "Andruw is going to have a monster year." To be honest, I'm not going to be impressed with anything less.

Frankie Francisco is heading into camp as the top choice the closer's role, from which he will receive considerable competition from CJ Wilson. I like this move, Francisco was dominant when took on that role last year. I was never comfortable with Wilson as the closer anyways; he is much more powerful as a setup/LOOGY type.

Spring Training Updates: TR Sullivan, Jeff Wilson

Last, but not least, one of the highlights of my day yesterday was reading Jamey Newberg's article on why the Rangers are going to be better in 2009. I have to admit that I wasn't too terribly optimistic about our chances for this season, but this article changed my mind.

Monday Movie: Major League II

I'm going to try something a little different every Monday and find a clip from a baseball movie. Enjoy Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn as he bumbles through a Right Guard Sport Stick commercial from Major League II:

I've seen this movie about 1,000 times, and I still crack up.

Around the Horn: Sunday (afternoon)

“The highlight of my career? In '67 with St. Louis, I walked with the bases loaded to drive in the winning run in an inter-squad game in spring training.”--Bob Uecker

This made me smile (regardless of the fact that Uecker didn't play for St. Louis in 1967) and brought to mind all of the positive memories we all have of Spring Training. Baseball Time in Arlington's post on Spring optimism, based on Josh Hamilton's "win 90 games" comment, reminds me of the fresh start associated with the beginning of each school semester or perhaps the start of every new year. No problem seems insurmountable, no deed seems undoable. For a baseball team, phrases like "if we can stay healthy" and "stay focused the whole season" are tossed around with careless excitement. All the Rangers, especially Hamilton, seem to be optimistic about the upcoming season. Here's to hoping their optimism is closer to reality than most people (myself included) seem to think . . .

Jeff Wilson writes about Elvis Andrus (and has a Spring Training update here). Apparently, Andrus is pretty well-spoken and handles the media well:

"When you have teammates like I do, they are superstars you want to follow and want to be in the future. I know it's going to be crazy, but I'm trying to keep it cool and trying to be myself and not change or do anything different."

So far he's not missing the forest for the trees. Great. Let's hope that he plays well enough to stay in the big league forest all season. I think he will be an exciting, if not frustrating, player to watch.

TR Sullivan forecasts answers to some early questions that have been lobbed the Rangers way. No real surprises here. In a different article, he also notes that Jason Jennings could start the season at AA or AAA. This would be a great move for the Rangers and would prevent learning the hard way about Jennings like they did last year:

(screenshot from espn.com)

Scott Lucas of The Ranger Rundown notes that the franchise is 197 games under .500 since the move to Arlington . . .

And that is about it for today. 11 days until Spring Training!

Around the Horn: Valentines Day Edition

Morning post today because I'm taking my fiance out for Valentine's Day tonight . . .

Yesterday I commemorated the first "milestone" for this blog. I calculated that to match LoneStarBall's impressive 15,000,000 page viewings at this rate, it would take approximately 1,154 years. Still, we have something to shoot for. Maybe the Rangers will have won the World Series by then.

Jeff Wilson runs down the biggest questions for the Rangers this season, including, but not limited to: Nelson Cruz, Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Brandon McCarthy, Frank Francisco, CJ Wilson, Elvis Andrus. I'm going to throw another one out there: Michael Young. He is definitely one of the players to watch to see how he returns from a sub-par offseason and how he performs at his new position.

Jim Reeves writes about Andruw Jones and his role on the team, referring to him mostly as an insurance policy. It's good to know the Rangers aren't putting too much stock in Jones, but my question is: Insurance policy for what? The densely populated outfield already insures against all basic problems and injuries. Even if, God forbid, we had serious injuries in the outfield, even if Nelson Cruz returns to his AAAA-hitter form, there are players on this team and in this organization that I'd rather see fill that role over Jones.

Mike Hindman at the DMN Blog shows the similarities between Michael Main's delivery and . . . Nolan Ryan's. A bit of a stretch, but you can see where he's coming from. Includes cool graphics!

TR Sullivan has a great rundown of memorable moments from Spring Trainings past.

12 days until Spring Training!

Milestone: 500 page views!

This post at Lone Star Ball is commemorating the milestone achievement of 15,000,000 page views. Congratulations to Adam Morris and everyone at Lone Star Ball. I'm a big fan.

With that in mind, I'd like to commemorate the 500th page viewing of this site, which happened sometime yesterday. Considering that this site has only been up since January 27th (and the blog counter at the bottom of the page has only been here counting posts since February 1), this means that people other than my fiance, whom I usually force to read my newest posts, and I visit this site. Most of the hits came from the immensely popular post about the adventures of Jason Botts in Japan, which someone was kind enough to post on other blogs. Since then, the site has averaged about 25 unique page viewings per day. That in itself is encouraging enough to me.

So if you read this blog daily, thanks for stopping by. If you have time to leave a comment, I'd love to hear what you think so far.

Hey, you have to start somewhere.

Around the Horn: Friday (Evening)

I went to the Fort Worth Star Telegram's website today, and was greeted by this headline: "After bad winter, Texas Rangers ready to report to Spring Training." At first I disagreed. The Sheets deal fell through, sure, and there haven't been many thrills, but I wouldn't call it bad. Then I realized (thanks to Joe Siegler of rangerfans.com) that the Rangers have not signed a single free agent to a major league contract this offseason. Needless to say, I conceded my mental argument to the Star Telegram.

Breaking news from TR Sullivan: "Staying healthy is key to Texas staff." All kidding aside, he does point out the 14 different Rangers pitchers went on the DL in 2008 (not to mention cases like Hurley and Benoit).

Josh Hamilton thinks the Rangers can win 90 games. Good to hear that someone is more optimistic than Baseball Prospectus.

Hamilton also could "care less" about what position he plays. An interesting, but understandingly different, contrast to the Michael Young fiasco. Good to hear that he's not threatened or miffed by the Andruw Jones signing. Then again, who would be threatened by a guy who hit .158 and .222 the last two years?

The Rangers have released their Spring Training broadcast schedule. 5 games are going to be televised, along with 18 on the radio. An additional 8 will be broadcast online by MLB Gameday Audio.

Jeff Wilson has a report from Day One and Day Two of Spring Training.

FoxSports.com reports that Ben Sheets is shooting to be back by August. Of particular interest is this quote by Sheets:

"I think (the Rangers) have a good team. I was excited by the prospect of being near home," said Sheets, who is a native of Baton Rouge, La., and owns a home in Dallas . . . I can't say I ever felt great about doing that deal. But I felt for both sides it might have worked. They didn't feel the risk was worth it. They've got a right to feel that way. I wasn't mad either way."

He goes on to add:

"I'd be a good fit for teams making a run at it."

It will be interesting to see whether the Rangers "make a run" at Sheets upon his return, whether or not they are "making a run" at a playoff spot. I would think that Sheets pitching for the Rangers for two months would be a nice trial period for Sheets in Texas and allow him to get accustomed to the Ballpark and the team before next season.

13 days until Spring Training!

Around the Horn: Thursday (Night)

Rototimes.com gives a fantasy-oriented preview of the 2009 Rangers. Its the usual scouting report for the team: stellar hitting, abysmal pitching. The notes about the individual players make are interesting to read, however, and are backed by interesting stats and analysis.

Baseball Time in Arlington breaks down the five best and the five worst rightfielders in Texas Rangers history. The "best" list includes the usual names that you might expect; what I found most interesting were those fortunate enough to make the "worst" list.

Mike Hindman dissects Elvis Andrus and discusses other Rangers prospects to skip several minor league levels to get to the bigs. He concludes that the Rangers haven't been so successful at this game: Laynce Nix and Benji Gil being the most recent (Gil actually remained in the majors until 2003, and was spotted in the Mets system as late as 2005). This excerpt from the article shows what kind of season Andrus is likely to have, based on his performance last year in AAA:

"As the league's youngest player, Andrus hit .260 / .302 / .310 in April. He improved to .278 / .343 / .322 in May, upped it to .309 / .385 / .397 in June and peaked in July with a .333 / .382 / .423 line before regressing just a bit with a still very fine August (.303 / .351 / .393). Yes, he made 32 errors last year, but more than half (17) came in the first two months of the season and he made just three errors in August."

There is talk of the team's desire to sign Josh Hamilton to a long term contract during Spring Training. This is a no-brainer. Do it. My desire to get this deal wrapped up quickly stems not only from Hamilton's value as a baseball player, but also from the fact that I recently received a Hamilton jersey as a gift.

And Jim Reeves gives an appropriate response to Tom Hicks.

14 days until Spring Training!

Texas Rangers: "Steroid Sluggers"

I am growing weary of digging around for Rangers news and finding only clippings about steroids. So I am going to write about all the steroid issues in a single post, and, barring some other future steroid-related embarassment, I'll be done with it.

As expected, the news about Alex Rodriguez has everyone spouting off and casting doubt upon the Rangers teams of the early 2000s. An article, entitled "Rangers Organization at Heart of Scandal" just warms me up on these cold offseason days. Lucky for us, accusations towards the teams of the early part of this decade are easy to shrug off, since those Rangers teams sucked anyway. It was much more difficult to swallow when the buried truths about players like Juan Gonzalez, Pudge Rodriguez, and Rafael Palmeiro started to be unearthed--those teams included the only three playoff teams in Rangers history. To make sure to rub this in, the Dallas Observer comments on the Rangers "steroid sluggers".

Unfortunately, some people are starting to ask questions about players that played with A-Rod. A particular theory out there says that since Hank Blalock played next to Alex Rodriguez and is having a tough time with injuries, that he must be on steroids. This is frustrating to me. Blalock may very well have used steroids, we don't know. But the fact that he's drawing speculation because played 40 feet to A-Rod's right? I don't buy it.

Tom Hicks also claims to be irate, commenting that he is "shocked" about Rodriguez. I think this is a classic case of an owner trying desperately to convince everyone that he was as clueless as the fans about the whole steroid issue. The question is, does anyone really believe him?

Perhaps the most disappointing facet of this entire debacle: we are considered by many to be one of the most steroid-infested organizations in this era, and we don't have anything to show for it. That's it: the Rangers aren't even good at cheating.

Around the Horn: Wednesday (Night)

I'm finding it harder and harder to write in the mornings and mid-afternoons, so I may end up writing most of my daily posts at night. This will give me the chance to comment on news that was published during the day that I normally might overlook.

Mike Hindman takes an interesting look at Marlon Byrd and David Murphy's numbers in an attempt to find the more productive outfielder. While it's clear Byrd is superior, Murphy's advantage lies in the fact that he is under team control for several more years.

Richard Durrett responds to the predictions Baseball Prospectus made for the Rangers, by setting the over/under at 79. BP set the Rangers to win 73, he guesses 78. Better, but still underwhelming.

The Angels steal Bobby Abreu for 1 year, $5 million (read Jamey Newberg's take here). What a deal. Abreu has what Bill James called the traditional "old player skills": patience at the plate, and power. He won't replace Teixeira, but he should complement (and provide an interesting contrast) to free-swinging Vlad Guererro. But hey, we just plucked an outfielder out of the bargain bin who has hit around the Mendoza line two years for just $350,000 . . . that's the same, right?

In other news, former Rangers Ben Broussard and Jamey Wright signed with the White Sox and Royals, respectively. Also, Ben Broussard is a musician and has his own website. Interesting.

Former Rangers President Tom Schieffer is thinking about running for Governor of Texas, as a democrat (don't tell you know who). Did you know that the governor's seat in Texas has been Republican for 14 straight years?

Spring Training in just 15 days!

Dear Alex Rodriguez,

It has finally happened; the cat is out of the bag, the worms are out of the can. The fact that you are in the tabloids more than Britney Spears already isn't going to help things either. The ever-present booing is going to get louder, the fans are going to get nastier. And let's face it, most fans already hate you too. Sportswriters are tearing you down and many are predicting difficulty with you and the Hall. You are one of the best infielders to ever set foot on a diamond. Where did you go wrong?

Do you remember back in your Seattle days? You were baseball's golden boy. You were polite to and respected by the fans and the media. You were hailed not only as the next Cal Ripken Jr., your childhood idol, but also as a kid who had to the potential to be the best ever. That's quite a bit of hype to live up to. Somehow, you managed to live up to the hype. You are undoubtedly one of the best baseball players of all time. Where did you go wrong?

Then came the free agent days and you came our way. Boy, was I excited. My Dad and I danced around the kitchen chanting "We got A-Rod!" One of the greatest players of all time was going to be a Texas Ranger for 10 years. The Rangers hadn't made a free agent signing of a player of your magnitude since Nolan Ryan. You were exiled by the rest of baseball for your monumental contract, of course, but you were always cheered at the Ballpark in Arlington. And how could you not be? Your numbers are astounding. Problem was, you and the "24 kids" you were playing with didn't chalk up many wins. Apparently you decided that you did not want to be a part of our sinking ship any longer (and especially not for the remainder of your contract), so you found a way out. Where did you go wrong?

Then you went to New York. Finally, you must have thought, a team that knows how to win the World Series. It certainly seems appealing; the Yankee tradition, being surrounded by other highly paid superstars. There were two things you most likely noticed after a few years of playing for the New York Yankees. One, you were now exiled by fans of every team, even by your hometown fans. If you went oh-for one night, Yankees fans aren't going to remember if you had went 4 for 5 with 2 HRs the night before. If you don't have a game like that, Yankee stadium transforms into a pressure cooker. Two, you still haven't gotten that World Series ring. You have had some of your best seasons in New York, maintaining your title as the best player in the game, but the press and the fans never let up. Where did you go wrong?

And now it has been made public that you used steroids. After countless reports of denying using them, including telling Katie Couric that you never used because you "never felt overmatched on a baseball field," the truth finally exposed itself. This certainly feels like the bottom, doesn't it? For fans to consider you "tainted," as if they didn't despise you enough. Where did you go wrong?

To tell you the truth, I don't think anyone but you knows the answer to this question. We can speculate about your contract, about feuds with Jeter, and your relationship with Madonna. But we don't know for sure where you went wrong. You might think that we will never understand why you took those steroids. And for the greater part of the public, that might be true. But you know what we hate more than steroid users? Steroid users who are liars. Just look at the demise of the once revered Mark McGwire, or Barry Bonds, or Sammy Sosa, or Rafael Palmeiro. We will not tolerate being lied to. I hope you took this opportunity to make amends for the game of baseball, and more importantly, yourself.

Probably the most heart-wrenching thing about this particular truth is that I think a lot of people were willing to give you the benefit of the doubt on this one. Maybe because you simply don't look all that "big" like Barry Bonds, or maybe, just maybe, because some of us remember a young Alex Rodriguez. But that doesn't matter now. You have given your side of the story, and I'm going to take you on your word because I can't imagine you being blind to the opportunity with which you are being presented: starting over. It's the American Dream, right? Sure, it won't be completely starting over. People will still hate you, you will still be in the tabloids, and you will always be criticized for your contract. No one else will ever truly know. This is the kind of starting over that will not only be the best for the game of baseball, but it is best for you. It will set you back in the right direction, back towards the polite, well-spoken wonderkid everyone loved who played for Seattle. And then, who cares what anyone else thinks?

Thank-you, Alex, for being honest. Maybe the next time you come to Arlington, I won't be booing as loud.

John Paul

Around the Horn: Monday (Night)

Most of the news relating to our Texas Rangers today is about a former shortstop (and I'm not talking about Michael Young). I'm going to write about that soon, but until then there is news over players actually playing for the Rangers now (albeit not much):

TR Sullivan runs down the Spring competition. It's business as usual most of the way around the diamond, with notable competitions at catcher with Saltalamacchia and Teagarden and in the outfield with the whole Andruw Jones enigma.

Baseball Prospectus posted their PECOTA-based standings projections for 2009. They are not too kind to the Rangers, who are predicted to post an uninspiring 72-90. I don't think the Rangers were projected to win as many as 79 games last year, so that may be slightly encouraging.

Yahoo! Sports also wrote their 2009 scouting report about the Rangers, noting that the offense may be as much of a problem as the pitching . . .

And that is about it for today. Spring training starts in 17 days!

Did you know . . . Brendan Donnelly Edition

All I knew about Donnelly when we signed him was that he had once pitched for the Angels. So I did a little homework and these were my findings:

**Donnelly was mentioned in the Mitchell Report for his communication with Kirk Radomski about a steriod called Anavar.

**Donnelly and Jose Guillen (Royals OF) hate each other. Read about that here.

**Donnelly throws predominantly fastballs and sliders, occasionally mixing in a slider, split finger, or cut fastball.

**Donnelly's career GB/FB ratio is .80 (35.2% of batted balls were grounders, 44.1% of batted balls were fly balls).

**Donnelly has averaged 1 HR given up for every 11 2/3 innings pitched over his career.

**Donnelly pitched 1 scoreless inning in the 2003 All Star Game.

**Donnelly has pitched 20 innings in the postseason, all with the Angels, with a 4.95 postseason ERA.

**Donnelly's 2009 projections:

PECOTA: IP: 37 ERA: 4.05
CHONE: IP: 26 ERA: 4.15
Marcel: IP: 34 ERA: 4.76

Around the Horn: Weekend Edition

It would be nice if the biggest Rangers news of the weekend involved a player actually on the roster . . . but I will save that for a different post.

TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers have signed Andruw Jones. I'm questioning the motives of the Rangers a little bit here. Jones used to be a fine defensive centerfielder, and a Sammy Sosa-like power hitter. With the current logjam the Rangers have in the outfield with Murphy, Hamilton, Byrd, Cruz, Boggs, Catalanotto, and eventually Borbon, it is difficult to see how adding an aging centerfielder on a quest to resurrrect his career is going to help the Rangers. It seems even more detrimental when considering who he is going to be stealing at-bats from. Murphy? Cruz? Boggs? Possibly Borbon? The Rangers will benefit much more from any of these players taking the field more often than Jones. It is a low risk financially, but given the Rangers interest in acquiring a heavy right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup, I think that a decent performance by Jones will inevitably mark the end of the road for Blalock or Murphy.

Moving on to signings that have been completed, the Rangers signed veteran reliever Brendan Donnelly to a minor league contract. If, like me, you weren't terribly familiar with Donnelly before this move, you can find his stats here. I have to say that I was impressed with Donnelly's numbers: a career ERA of 3.12 and only one season over 3.94 (last season was a bit disastrous for him at 8.56, which helps explain why he is still available). Reading some of the comments posted on different websites, some reactions are of the sort: "Why do we keep signing all of these washed-up has-beens?" I have several responses to this:

1) They are cheap.
2) They are low risk.
3) They are pretty much all that is available.
4) They provide an injury insurance policy (see: Joaquin Benoit, Eric Hurley).
5) The Rangers don't want to rush any of the young arms in the minors before they are ready.
6) As Adam Morris of LoneStarBall stated in this post, "[The] interesting thing about bullpens is that most of the ones that end up doing really well have some guys pop up out of nowhere. Really, that's what makes bullpens so unique...you can often times dig up a guy as an NRI or as a fringe prospect who can have some things click in the pen and become a quality reliever."

The most important issue here, I think, is that the Rangers are settting their sights on 2010. The signing of guys like Donnelly, Derrick Turnbow, and Eddie Guardado ensures that guys like Neftali Feliz are not Edinson Volquez-ed and rushed up here too quickly. I think signing guys like Guardado, Turnbow, and Donnelly are different than say, Jamey Wright, because Wright was never actually all that good, ever. These guys have a number of productive seasons under their belt. And, you never know, they just may have some gas left in the tank.

Also, Jason Parks of Baseball Time in Arlington posted an in-depth scouting report on Julio Borbon. For those who are not terribly familiar with scouting or with Borbon, this is a good read.

Around the Horn: Friday

Today in Oklahoma the temperature is about 70 degrees. It is days like this that make me wish the baseball season would hurry up and start already. College baseball starts on February 20th, a few days before the Rangers kick off Spring Training.

The new station that will be broadcasting the Rangers games, 105.3 The Fan, is reportedly not as powerful as KRLD and will thus not be able to reach as many Rangers fans. Why do I care about this? KRLD could occcasionally be picked up on clear nights in Norman, but according to the linked article, 105.3 The Fan can not be heard around Oklahoma City. Fortunately, I am obsessed enough that I have XM Radio's MLB package and MLB's Gameday Audio, so I will not be affected. There are, however, quite a few Rangers fans here in Oklahoma that are getting burned, and there are no Rangers radio affiliates in Oklahoma. It would seem natural to have Rangers coverage here in Oklahoma (or at least in the Oklahoma City area), given that the Rangers are the closest MLB franchise to most Oklahoma residents, and the Rangers' AAA team plays in the heart of Oklahoma City.

The rest of the reporting today deals mostly with pitchers who have elbow flexor tendon issues:

Gil LeBreton at the Star Telegram thinks the Rangers should wait on Sheets to recover from surgery to repair his torn right elbow flexor tendon. In other words, restructure the contract to let Sheets go through rehab and workout with the team. And then reap whatever "benefits" Sheets sows during the remainder of his contract. The other option for Sheets, of course, would be to wait until August when he is healthy and sign with a playoff bound team desperate for every possible advantage, like the Yankees. For those who are worried about a pitcher's performance after such a surgery, TR Sullivan added this bittersweet endorsement in his "Friday Happy Hour" notes:

"Andy Pettitte had flexor tendon surgery in August 2004. Came back to go 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA for the Astros in 2005. The 2.39 ERA is the lowest ever in his career. Victor Zambrano had the surgery three years ago though and his career is still not back on track."

Speaking of pitchers recovering from flexor tendon surgery, Jeff Wilson reported the Rangers' signing of Jason Jennings to a minor league deal this morning, and Richard Durrett is wondering why people are so opposed to this deal. I'm with Durrett here; the Rangers are going to need all the help they can get. It's not as if Jennings is the new ace, or like he's going to be blocking any of our pitching prospects. Many fans, I imagine, have soured on Jennings based on his performance last year, and based on the pitcher we traded to make room for Jennings on the roster. All that aside, I don't think the Rangers can lose on this deal. If Jennings pulls a 2008 then just relegate him to a long-relief role or send him down to AAA.

The Strategy of Ron Washington

Scott Lucas at Ranger Rundown disagrees with the following comment by Ron Washington in regards to Josh Hamilton's spot in the batting order:

"The No. 4 guys gets off-speed stuff, look back and Milton handled more off-speed stuff than fastballs. Hamilton handled more fastballs than breaking balls because they didn't want to put Hamilton on base and let Milton hurt them."

Now, even Lucas himself notes that multiple studies have shown batting order to be mostly negligible. All the same, using fastball percentage data from FanGraphs.com, Lucas does "look back" to find not only does he disagree with Washington, but Washington is in fact wrong. Last year, Hamilton (usually hitting third) saw 53.4% fastballs, while Bradley (usually hitting fourth) saw 65.9%.

This provides more evidence that Washington relies more on his conventional wisdom and common sense to decide things of this nature rather than relying on statistical fact. I often have similar disagreements with Washington's strategic moves, particularly with his use of the intentional walk and sacrifice bunt. Even Baseball Prospectus 2008 notes that "Washington only made things worse [in 2007] by trying to bring small ball to a park designed for big ball."

Makes me wonder if the occasional small ball that Washington played last year held us down offensively, even though our offense scored 901 runs.

Around the Horn: Thursday

If you haven't heard by now, the Rangers have all but passed on Ben Sheets, who is likely to require flexor tendon surgery. The surgery, depending on who you talk to, could keep Sheets out for the enitre first half or for the entire season. Considering that John Hart is still on our staff, I'm surprised we didn't try to sign Sheets to 5 years and $65 million. Is anyone else looking forward to another season with Millwood as our ace? Richard Durrett gives his projections for the starting rotation given this latest development: Millwood, Padilla, Harrison, McCarthy, and Feldman.

The Rangers are also working towards installing LED technology throughout the Ballpark, most notably the left field scoreboard. I have to admit it looks pretty snazzy (see below). I was always a fan, however, of the old-fashioned manual scoreboard. I'm not sure whether this is an actual or projected image, but you can't argue with its appearance:

Around the Horn: Wednesday

The first Spring Training game is in three weeks and one day . . .

Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Maz Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Joaquin Arias made USA Today Sports Weekly's Top 100 Names You Need to Know list in that order. Arias? Here is what they had to say:

"86. Joaquin Arias, SS, Rangers: Arias, 24, had shoulder surgery in 2007 that limited his arm strength in 2008, and the emergence (and apparent anointing) of Elvis Andrus as the shortstop of the present and future casts Arias' role in doubt. Assuming Andrus pans out, Arias will have upside, possibly as a super-utility player."

I think its a bit odd to have a "super-utility" player in your Top 100 list, but at least the description is accurate. Recall how we required Arias: he was the player to be named later in the Alex Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano deal. Follow the link and read the list of other players the Rangers could have chosen from . . . most notably the only other infielder. I know we have Kinsler, but wouldn't it be nice to have this guy instead of Arias?

It turns out that Josh Hamilton is staying put in centerfield for at least this season. Appropriately, it appears that Nolan Ryan's announcement was a bit too fast. I imagine a lot of it has to do with the development of centerfield prospect Julio Borbon. Judging from this non-move, I would imagine we will not be seeing Borbon until late September at the very least, and possibly not until next year alltogether.

To conclude and follow up on two points I made yesterday (thanks to those who posted updated comments):

It is confirmed that Eddie Guardado has signed with the Rangers on a minor league one-year deal. He will most likely be rounding out the bullpen. I would love to write about how I agree with this situation, but Joey Matschulat at Baseball Time in Arlington has done a much better job than I would have breaking down Everyday Eddie's return, including a month-by-month look at his 2008 statistics and probable reasons for his semi-meltdown late in the year. Also, Adam Morris at LoneStarBall provides his outlook on the 2009 bullpen.

It has been formally announced that 105.3 The Fan, an FM affiliate of KRLD, is going to be broadcasting weekday games, and KRLD is going to be broadcasting weekend games. Additionally, 105.3 is going to air 18 spring training games this year.

Around the Horn: Tuesday

Some good stuff out there today . . .

Baseball Time in Arlington has a fantastic scouting report on Justin Smoak, our 2008 first round pick. It even explains the basics of scouting ratings and what are called the "five tools". Of particular note was the comment that it is not unreasonable to expect Smoak to produce .290/.385/.525 year in and year out.

ESPN.com's Doug Mittler penned an article several days ago about the only NFL and MLB teams to not have reached their respective championships. There are only eight teams. There are only three baseball teams. Our beloved Rangers, of course, are lucky enough to make this elite list, along with the Mariners and the Nationals. Interesting article, but he loses me when he blames most of this on former owner George W. Bush. To me, this screams, "I don't really know anything about the Rangers."

TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers are close to bringing Eddie Guardado back. Given how desperately our bullpen needs help, I like this move. Guardado pitched well last year (3.65 ERA in 55 games for the Rangers), he will mostly likely pitch against lefties, and he's a good role model for our young pitchers.

Jamey Newberg makes a similar note about Guardado, and later states his fear that the A's will snatch Sheets for a one-year deal. That scares me too, especially since the Rangers have been fairly quiet about Sheets as of late.

Bizarre note on the NBC-DFW Blog on how Rangers game are (allegedly) moving to 105.3 FM. It appears that no official announcement has been made. This is a bit shocking to me, since the only stations that have broadcast the Rangers in my time have been WBAP and KRLD, and I have not heard any talk of an expiring contract.

Comments

Due to a few email suggestions, I have lifted the sign-in restrictions on the comments. Anyone should be able to comment now, should you so choose.

Enjoy!

Around the Horn: Monday

What a game last night. A 100 yard pick-six at the end of the first half, Larry Fitzgerald watching himself score on the JumboTron, the holding call in the endzone for a safety after Rothlisberger seemingly navigated his team out of danger, Santonio Holmes letting the game winning pass slip through his hands and then making a remarkable touchdown catch on the very next play to put the Steelers up for good.

And if this was a football blog, I would write more about this. Instead, we have more riveting offseason Rangers talk:

Jim Reeves writes about Nolan Ryan's talk of moving Josh Hamilton to right field, noting that it is probably the right move. Later in the article Ryan discussed his love for David Murphy, and comments that:

"David Murphy you’ve got to keep on your ballclub and you have to get him in the lineup every chance you get," Ryan said. "If you watch him, and he has four at-bats in a night, in three of the four he’ll be 3-2 [in the count].

First off, don't get me wrong. I like Murphy. He's a scrappy, gritty outfielder reminiscent of Rusty Greer. But if what Ryan says were true, wouldn't Murphy's OBP have been higher than .321 last season? He only walked 31 times in 454 plate appearances. Baseball-Reference does not have his 2008 pitches per plate appearance posted yet, but if I had to wager I would imagine the data does not support Ryan's claim. [If you can find his 2008 PPA, post it in the comments section with a link and I will update the post.]

In conclusion, Murphy is gritty (which is perhaps why Ryan has taken such a liking to him), but I sure wish he would grind out a few more walks and OBP points.

Over at Baseball Time in Arlington, Joey Matschulat busts out some defensive data supporting Hamilton's alleged move to right field.

On his blog, TR Sullivan breaks down the Rangers bullpen options. He includes possibilities for each bullpen role as well as a list of free agents that may (or may not be) able to help.

My Life in Japan: The Jason Botts Story

We all remember Jason Botts, right? The onetime Rangers prospect who put up monster numbers in the minor leagues, but never could produce at the big league level? In case you missed it, he ended up in Japan playing for the Nippon-Ham Fighters.

I was always a big Jason Botts supporter. Since I live in Norman, I frequent Redhawks games and over the years saw Botts play upwards of 40-50 games at Bricktown Ballpark. Because of the time he spent at AAA and his monster numbers, he was a crowd favorite. It was hard not to root for the guy whose JumboTron portrait was replaced with a picture of Chewbacca (and at 6'5" and 250 lbs, its not too hard to believe that Botts was a Wookie). I was hopeful that he would translate his minor league success into a steady big league gig.

Today I was reading last year's publication of the Baseball Prospectus annual, and mused at their comments on Botts:

"Once again last year, Botts put up big, big numbers at AAA only to turn into a pumpkin once Texas gave him a shot at the big leagues . . . He could be huge in Japan one day."

At the time this seemed to be a comment characteristic of the BP writers' dry-witted sarcastic humor, until I did an internet search for Botts today. His 2008 numbers in Japan are only slightly better than his "pumpkin"-like performances with the Rangers (.254/.327.423 according to japanesebaseball.com). What I encountered next, however, were two YouTube videos: one was a Jason Botts music video, and one was an entire stadium chanting "Ja-son-Bot-tsu".

Perhaps Baseball Prospectus was not only sarcastic, but prophetic as well.

Around the Horn: Super Bowl Sunday

Anthony Andro at the Star-Telegram takes an interesting look at every farm system that Baseball America has ranked #1. Fortunately for the Rangers, he notes that all but three of the corresponding big league teams have made the playoffs in subsequent years. The article includes a breakdown of each of the playoff bound teams and the contributions of their respective farm systems. Of particular interest to me were his notes on the Atlanta Braves 1990s dynasty, the Rangers of the late 1990s, and last year's upstart Tampa Bay Rays.

In the same paper, Jim Reeves talks about Nolan Ryan's desire to move Josh Hamilton to right field. Ryan claims that Hamilton is "too big" to be a centerfielder, and that Cruz or Byrd will likely replace him in center. First of all, I don't think is a bad idea given Hamilton's health and conditioning concerns. But the fact that Hamilton is "too big" and Nelson Cruz is just right confuses me (I tried to find a reliable source for their heights and weights, but Baseball Reference and Bill James have conflicting reports). Personally, if its between Hamilton and Cruz in center, I would go with Hamilton. If Hamilton does indeed go to right, I hope Byrd gets the nod there over Cruz (at least defensively).

Another issue this raises is what to do about Cruz. His cannon of an arm is better utilized in center or in right. With Hamilton allegedly moving, would Cruz be more likely to play in left, in center, or in a 4th outfielder role?

In non-Rangers news, there is talk that the Braves may bring back the recently released Andruw Jones, who is available for the $400,000 minimum.

Also, the Brewers have signed Trevor Hoffman, and the Red Sox have signed Kevin Youkilis to a long term deal.