Thursday: "Straight ball, I hit it very much . . . . "

Continuing the discussion that we've made about Chris Davis, I feel it's only appropriate to start out with this classic video clip from Major League. As it turns out, Pedro Cerrano (played by Dennis Haysbert, i.e. President Palmer on 24) has similar struggles at the plate:

*******************************************************

Here are Chris' pitch breakdowns from this year (courtesy of billjamesonline.com):

To date, Chris has seen 375 pitches this year; he has swung at 187 of them (49%), and taken 188 of them (51%). (In 2008, the percentages were 46% taken, 54% swung.)

Of the pitches that he has swung at, he has missed 43% of them. (In 2008, 32%).

Of the pitches that he has swung at, only 63% of them have been in the strike zone. (In 2008, 64%).

*******************************************************
The only noticeable discrepancy here is his contact rates from 2008-2009. As you can see, he is coming up empty at a much more rapid pace (43% in 2009 to 32% in 2008). When he actually makes contact, his BABIP is .275 (the league average is about .300), down from a monstrous .353 in 2008 (which I referred to in this post about BABIP several months ago). We can conclude that (1) he's not making contact as often, and (2) when he is making contact, he's not getting any breaks. We can expect his BABIP to approach league average over the course of the season, but his sharp contact percentage decline is certainly cause for some concern.

My first inclination would be to assume that he is being pitched much differently this year, i.e. as pitchers are adjusting to him, he hasn't been adjusting back. Perhaps this has been the case, but on the whole, he's being pitched exactly the same:

*******************************************************

Year--Pitch--% (courtesy of fangraphs.com)

2008--Fastball--55.3% 2008--Curveball--11.4%
2009--Fastball--56.5% 2009--Curveball--11.9%

2008--Slider--16.7% 2008--Changeup--9.8%
2009--Slider--13.9% 2009--Changeup--8.3%

There is an alarmingly high percentage of pitches for 2009 that have been termed as "unknown": 10.8%. This could possibly be skewing the data, or it could just be a data entry fluke. Or a secret new pitch that's being used to strike Chris out.
*******************************************************

Overall, it's not terribly surprising for a player like Davis to have a stretch like this. He's a power hitter who strikes out a lot but doesn't walk much. When players like this have a slump at the plate, they don't have the benefit of (1) walks (because they don't walk) or (2) BABIP/luck (because they don't make much contact). For instance, when a player like Michael Young is slumping, he still catches some lucky breaks by virtue of some well placed ground balls. When a player like Milton Bradley is slumping, he works his way onto the bases every now and then by virtue of walks and patience at the plate. Davis has neither of these going for him.

While this streak is worrisome, Chris will undoubtedly pull himself out of it. The truth is, with his low-contact, no-walk style, we should excpect to see stretches like this (though perhaps not as long) throughout his career.