Tuesday: The Curious Case of Michael Young, Part II

In a follow up to last week's post about the state of Michael Young's career and his chances for a rebound (The Curious Case of Michael Young, Part I), I wanted to demonstrate exactly what kind of trend in which Young is entrenched. Fortunately, http://www.fangraphs.com/ provides exactly the kind of visualizations that we need. Aside from the commentary I've made, notice how drastic his ascent was, offset only by how steady his decline has been. The symmetry of his graphs is pretty remarkable, if you think about it. How many players have careers like this? My guess: not many. If you can find one, post it in the comments!

Batting Average

It's not terribly surprising that Young's BA has taken a tumble. Batting average is usually one of the first statistics to take a hit as a player ages. The problem here with Michael Young is that most of his value was in his ability to hit .315 every year. I think we'll see Young's batting average teeter between .280 and .300 (a lot of which may depend on his BABIP) for the next several years.

On-Base Percentage

On the surface, this looks just about as bad as batting average. However, when examined along with his BA, we can see that more and more of Young's OBP has been made up of walks, hit-by-pitches, etc. We can see this by subtracting Young's BA from his OBP (which will tell us the part of his OBP that is independent from his BA). I'm not sure if this stat actually has a name, so I'm just going to call it OBP-BA**.

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2003 OBP-BA: .35 2004 OBP-BA: .40 2005 OBP-BA: .54

2006 OBP-BA: .42 2007 OBP-BA: 51 2008 OBP-BA: .55

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Thus, aside from Michael's MVP-calibre 2005 season, he's been taking more walks and working the count more, which is a good sign. Many of you will be quick to notice that this has also resulted in more strikeouts, but an increase in walks and pitches per plate appearance always results in more strikeouts, and is part of any player's transition from what Bill James called "young player skills" to "old player skills." As long as more and more of his OBP is made up for by walks (assuming his BA stays mostly where it is and doesn't plummet any more), this is a sign for hope.

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**Side note: For the other math nerds out there like me who realize that you can't truly subtract these two statistics because they have different denominators (at bats for BA and plate appearances for OBP), I chose to sacrifice rigor for simplicity, which works well because this stat is easier to understand and exemplifies the same pattern as a more complicated hybrid stat.

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Slugging Percentage

Sometimes, as players age, they are able to keep their power numbers up by transitioning into a Jim Thome-type hitter. Most of these players had pretty impressive power to begin with. Michael Young, however, never was a tremendous power hitter, and what power he did have for the four years that he was above average (see graph) left him pretty quickly. It's hard to say why his home-run power and patented rightfield-gap power left him so briskly. We won't see any more than 10-12 home-runs from Young ever again, but if he emerges as a more patient, selective hitter (as his OBP-BA above suggests), we could see his doubles climb. All in all, however, I see Young's SLG% staying around the .410-.420 range.

Summary/Prediction

To summarize this mini-analysis, I believe that Young's batting average will stay about the same (improving very slightly), his OBP-BA will will continue to rise (thus increasing his OBP), and his slugging will slightly improve. This year (and most likely in subsequent years as well), I predict that Young will post a BA/OPB/SLG line of .291/.353/.421. Not spectacular for a third baseman, but good enough to ensure him a spot in the everyday lineup (as long as he keeps it up).

Monday Movie: Field of Dreams

In the 'baseball movie' genre, 'Field of Dreams' is considered to be a classic, a movie that mixes baseball and fantasy to create a magical world worth visiting again and again. Kevin Costner is the star (one of three baseball movies he made, the other two being 'Bull Durham,' and 'For Love of the Game') and as you probably know, plays a man who builds a baseball diamond in his corn field. The clip you are about to see takes place at the end of the film when he discovers the truth behind the mystery that has been building up throughout the story. At the end of the clip, notice the cars lined up along the road. I was watching a documentary about the movie and director Phil Alden Robinson never actually intended this to happen, but at the last minute decided that it would add a unique effect to the picture. (note, spoiler alert for those who haven't seen 'Field of dreams.')

Monday: The Departed

So now the Rangers team seems to be set for 09. We’ve been pretty sure about the roster for some time now, though Kris Benson’s sudden emergence has definitely been a bit of a bolt from the blue. It’s looking as if he may even take Scott Feldman’s place in the rotation, with Feldman then moving to the bullpen as a long man. This spring Benson hasn’t been very impressive (1-0 with a 4.91 ERA), but compare that to Feldman’s near calamitous 6.19 ERA and you can guess why Benson has been surfacing the headlines as Feldman’s replacement. Benson, who is 34, has a career ERA of 4.34 and a 68-73 record. No, he hasn’t been a great pitcher, but he hasn’t been bad either. In 2000 he went 11-12, but with a 3.85 ERA in 217 innings. Still, you can expect Benson not to last too long, that is, if he even makes the rotation. Speaking of not lasting long, lets take a look at the possible and possible but unlikely Rangers who might get shipped out before the season is out. First of all, the decisions on who goes and who stays remains largely on how the Rangers perform. If they’re contenders, look for some buying, but if not, then some selling would seem to be in order:

Eddie Guardado. “Everyday Eddie,” 39 years old, played for the Rangers last year and pitched very well. However, he’s at the point in his career where he simply wants to win, and if the Rangers struggle, they’ll likely send him somewhere else out of pure courtesy, that is, if he’s pitching well. If he pitches poorly, he’ll likely be released, but with Guardado’s simple, finesse pitching style, he likely won’t have any problems as far as numbers go.

Omar Vizquel. Vizquel is an artist, but he’ll display his art on a limited basis as rookie Elvis Andrus’ backup at SS. But he may be traded to a team looking for veteran leadership/talent if the Rangers numbers don’t amount to much by July. After all, Joaquin Arias is still in the organization and they might like to give him another shot in place of Vizquel.

Marlon Byrd. Byrd is still young and could make a great starting outfielder for another team. With the Rangers teeming outfield, you can expect at least some of them to be considered for a trade. Byrd has been solid for the Rangers over the last two years, and he can definitely fill in as a starter if someone like Nelson Cruz struggles or gets injured. But there is not a great chance of that happening and it’s obvious that Byrd wants to play every day. Since the Rangers respect his wishes, they may send him somewhere else where he is more needed.

Andruw Jones. This was the dud signing of the off-season to me. I know the Rangers love picking up veterans who are looking for a home, but Jones was a superfluous acquisition and I want him out. Nothing against you, Andruw.

Frank Catalanatto. Frank Catalanatto? He’s still a Ranger? I respect Cat a lot. He’s a classy player and a terrific ball player. He’s never complained over his limited playing time while with the Rangers and when he does get a chance to play he seems to always come up with a hit. Catalanatto is the sort of player who is key for contending teams. In a vital game situation, if a young rookie comes up, you can guess the manager would rather have some veteran experience at the plate in that situation. Turn to Catalanatto and he'll likely get the job done. But if the Rangers aren’t in contention, you can see him putting on a new uniform, which to me would be the best for him because I think a classy player like Cat deserves the best.

Joaquin Arias. Here’s the deal with Arias: if the Rangers are in contention, they may want to deal him for a veteran pitcher or some key players who would help the team win. If the Rangers are out of it by July, you may see Arias given another shot. To me I think they need to trade him because in all honesty I don’t think he’ll ever be a solid player, plus he’s prone to injuries, which makes his appeal go down quite a bit.

Hank Blalock. This doesn’t seem too likely. Blalock could potentially be part of a package, but since he’ll be a free agent next year, most teams won’t be that interested in him, especially since he’s primarily a DH now.

Max Ramirez. The Rangers acquired Ramirez a few years ago when they traded Kenny Lofton to the Indians. Ramirez seems to be a great offensive force, but his catching skills aren’t exactly something to write home to mother about (though he did make an incredible play last year with the Rangers). Ramirez’ defense has improved though, and if the Rangers get good production from Saltalamacchia and Teagarden then it would seem that Ramirez would be a wasted talent. His presence in a multi-player deal would make the package shine much brighter. However, if either Salty or Teagarden struggles, then you could see Ramirez in and one of them out.


Ian Kinsler. I’m only mentioning Kinsler because I’ve heard a lot of talk about him being shipped if the right deal came along. Folks, Kinsler is here to stay. If he does get traded then feel free to bash me over the head. But that seems unlikely.

Well that just about does it for the candidates. There are some other pitchers who could possibly be dealt, but it seems improbable because this team needs pitching and I think Jon Daniels is very happy with what he has in both the rotation and the bullpen. I know it’s early for me to talk about something that won’t actually happen for a long time, but I have a tradition of guessing who might depart before the season actually starts, so I thought I’d share it on here. There will probably be another edition like this in July, when more accurate determinations can be made.

New Format, New Schedule, New Writers

As you know, Hello Win Column is a relatively new Texas Rangers blog, having been around for roughly 2 months now. These first two months have been a little bit of a trial and error process--I try something for a while, see if it works, and then modify it as necessary. In short, I'm still trying to find the right niche for this blog, and I am constantly looking for new ways to improve the blog and gain readership. This is exactly how I intended it to be, seeing as I didn't have any prior blogging experience when I first started.

That having been said, it's time for another change.

You may recall two additional writers making cameos here over the past two weeks: Thomas Lowery and Jon Page. They filled in for me while I was away for Spring Break and did an extraordinary job. While reading their fine work upon my return, I realized that the blog was much more rounded with their contributions. Thomas, with his whimsical, philosophical style, and Jon, with his beat-reporter game reports, added dimensions to the blog that I never did (or could, for that matter).

That having been said, I have invited them to stay on and contribute to the blog on a regular basis. This is the likely weekly schedule that you will be seeing:

Sunday Rangers Recap: John Paul
Monday Movie: Thomas
Monday's Post: Thomas
Tuesday Trivia: John Paul
Tuesday's Post: John Paul
Wednesday's Post: Thomas
Thursday's Post: John Paul
Friday Foto: John Paul
Saturday's Post: Jon

This will probably mark one of many changes as HWC continues to grow and improve; I am excited about what we have been able to do here at HWC so far, and adding these guys only makes things better. If anyone out there reading has any suggestions, remarks, comments, etc., please let us know by posting a comment--we'd love to get some feedback.

Thanks again for reading!

John Paul

Sunday: Rangers Recap

Here we are, a week away from Opening Day. Though we all may be growing tired of Spring Training, it is offset by the ever-increasing excitement for the start of the actual season. Luckily for those of us who write about the Rangers, this means there isn't a shortage of topics to write about as there might have been in the dark, cold offesason. Let's take a look at what we've discussed this past week:

Sunday: Back in the Saddle Again
Monday Movie: The Natural
Tuesday Trivia: Trading for and trading away Jose Canseco
Wednesday: Baseball Prospectus Scouting Reports in Review (by John Paul)
Thursday: From Washington to Washington (by Thomas)
Friday: The Curious Case of Michael Young (by John Paul)
Saturday: Andruw Jones: Fourth Outfielder? (by Jon)

And here is this week's Friday Foto, a day or two late:

Pudge is becoming quite the journeyman, it seems . . . . .

Saturday notes: Andruw Jones: fourth outfielder?

Well folks, it would seem reports of my departure from HWC have been greatly exaggerated. That's right folks, Jon is back - well, on Saturdays anyway. Maybe if John Paul lets me, we can even have select "Jon-out" weekends (Internet hi-five on the red-unis pun? Anyone?)

I'm glad to be back, even if it is on a limited basis - frankly I'm quite flattered that John Paul thought enough of my work last week to bring me back for a bench role. It could be a week-to-week deal for now (due to my own personal responsibilities) and I'm not sure as of yet what a typical Saturday post for me might entail (I'm used to more regular playing time) but I hope you, the reader, will bear with me while I make it up as I go.

Seeing as how I missed half the games this week (and it seems kind of senseless to do a solitary mid-week game report) for this morning I figured I'd take the easy way out and tackle this past weeks hotbutton issue: Andruw Jones. Wait, that is the easy way out, right?

I penned (okay, typed) my initial thoughts on the subject when the hoopla broke last weekend, and they really haven't changed a whole lot - I'm admittedly still in the camp that fears a "Sammy Sosa redux" could conceivably have playing time ramifications on just about everyone but Josh Hamilton in the Rangers 1B/DH/OF mix.

As we've learned this week (and perhaps already knew before) the driving force behind the Rangers sudden change of heart on Jones has apparently been hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo - with Ron Washington and more importantly Nolan Ryan also grabbing seats up front on the "save-Andruw" bus. Seeing the influential Ryan stamp his seal of approval on the project isn't exactly a soothing development for those of us who where wishing this Jones issue would simply go away on it's own - which it's not, as it was also announced this week that Jones status had been upped to possible cleanup hitter against left-handers. Jones started at cleanup on Tuesday going a respectable 2-6 (including a double) as the Mariners started lefty Jarrod Washburn.

Things got even more interesting last night as Washington started Jones at cleanup again - this time against right-hander Dave Bush (so much for the cleanup consideration being against lefties only, perhaps?). Jones went an anemic 0-5 with three strikeouts at the plate, including the dubious fate of striking out looking to end the game. Good news for anyone who's still hoping this whole thing will fail before it gets started - but that wasn't really the keynote of Jones night, at least not in my opinion. Of particular note was the position Jones started at - not DH or CF, but left field, a locale which Jones has not officially seen since 1997 (at least according to Baseball Reference).

It would appear Washington is getting increasingly creative in his attempts to fit Jones into the lineup and increase his versatility as spring training winds down - which can't be a bad thing if Jones does make the roster, and it could also ease the fears of Jones possibly stealing AB's from Chris Davis (whose bat has finally awoken this week). Which leads me at least, to wonder if the plan is evolving here, trending toward making Andruw the fourth outfielder - and what such a scenario might entail.

At first glance, getting Jones get work in left to look at him as a backup makes a certain measure of sense. David Murphy's .669 OPS against left-handed pitching last year left more than a little to be desired and there's no question Murphy could use - and probably should have - a right-handed platoon partner, a role Jones would seem to be an ideal fit for given his career numbers against left-handed pitching. The caveat however, is that the Rangers haven't expressed any interest in platooning Murphy despite the blatant splits. In fact it, if we're to believe TR Sullivan's claim back on March 20th that "There were never any doubts about Murphy or Hamilton" claiming outfield spots coming into the spring, it would seem an attempt to resurrect Jones as a part-time outfielder could actually be more likely to cut into the playing time of Nelson Cruz - and that's the last thing Cruz needs as he makes a final bid for a starting job with the Rangers this season. Is that reaching? Perhaps, but then again perhaps not. I personally find it extremely hard to believe that if Jones makes the team after all this fuss, he'll be religated strictly to a platoon/backup role whether he's DH'ing or playing the outfield. I think he's going to get as significant an amount of time as Wash can possibly afford him, to allow Rudy every opportunity to work with his latest pet project.

Then of course there's Marlon Byrd, who stands to be the real loser in this hypothetical scenario - if he's kept around. About a week and a half ago, it was Byrd who was pushing Jones off the roster, but the newfound zeal of the Jaramillo/Washington/Ryan triumvirate concerning the Jones experiment has seemingly reversed that line of thinking this week. If Andruw where to wind up ticketed with the backup role in the outfield, it would push Byrd (who put up a career-best 123 OPS+ in 2008) to the sporadic role of 5th outfielder - which doesn't really make much sense, because Byrd can do everything Andruw can and then some at this juncture in their careers. The only other option would be to find preseason trade for Byrd. Which, with the seeming urgency of the quest to try and find a spot for Andruw on the roster, could perhaps be the real endgame here - the Rangers could admittedly really use another bullpen arm, especially now in the wake of Dustin Nippert's injury and Brendan Donnelly's release, and Byrd could be an attractive option for a team looking to add some quality outfield depth.

Again, there's a catch however: if you can't find a deal for Byrd, or your deal falls through you could be left with two outfielders whom the manager needs to get part-time playing time in the outfield, leading to an even worse logjam.

To sum things up, putting Andruw in the outfield doesn't really eliminate or solve any of the possible playing time conflicts that will arise over the course of Rudy's quest to fix him - at best it transfers some of them to Murphy and Cruz instead of focusing them on Blalock and Davis. To me though, that rather seems like throwing a blanket over the white elephant in your living room. Bottom line is, I just don't see how we can undertake Jones as a reclamation project without it being a detriment - and ultimately I don't think Andruw will return to enough of his former glory to to make it worth our while in the end.

Friday: The Curious Case of Michael Young

We all know the deal about Michael Young, in part because it was shoved down our throats during this past offseason when the whole "moving to third base" controversy surfaced: the Rangers are paying him a lot of money (an average of $16 million per year), and over the past four seasons (2005-2008), his vitals have substantially, if not continuously, decreased:

Year AVG/OBP/SLG
'05 .331/.385/.513
'06 .314/.356/.459
'07 .315/.366/.418
'08 .284/.339/.402

You don't have to be a statistical analyst to realize that this is not a great trend. The general consesus is that Young's glory days are behind him, and the general consensus may very well be right. However, I don't believe that all hope is lost.

Why? First of all, as Jamey Newbery wrote in an article previewing the 2009 season: "Ten unbroken fingers, rather than eight. Count on the numbers bouncing back."

Secondly, players similar to Michael Young have bounced back before. By "similar", I mean that I think they are similar. When I think of Michael Young, I think of an infielder with a team-first attitude that makes his living more by hard work and grind than natural talent (the other end of the spectrum being a player like Josh Hamilton). The most notable player who (mostly) fits this description is the Evil Empire's Derek Jeter. (Also of note, but not included here, is former Astros great Craig Biggio):

Granted, Jeter has played in the majors for much longer than Young and is certainly the superior of the two, and even during his "slumps", he was still pretty damn good. He was once mired in a steady downward slope from 1999-2002 and bounced out of it the year after:

Year AVG/OBP/SLG
'99: .349/.438/.552
'00 .339/.416/.481
'01 .311/.377/.480
'02 .297/.373/.421

Rebound Year:
'03 .324/.393/.450

I don't mean to imply that "Jeter did it, so Young is going to do it" or imply that Jeter's performance will affect Young's in any way. It is certainly possible, however, and not entirely unheard of, for a player like Young to come back strong. I wouldn't expect him to return to his 2005 batting champion levels ever again, but perhaps something splitting his last 3 seasons is more reasonable to expect.

On the other hand, Young's most similar players, according to Baseball-Reference, are (in order): Jose Vidro, Todd Walker, and Placido Polanco. What do these guys have in common? A few great years, followed or surrounded by slightly above average years.

Let's hope that all hope is not lost, and that Young responds to his current situation more like Jeter.

Thursday: From Washington to Washington

This is Thomas Lowery again. Please note that I'll be continuing to write on the blog a few days each week.

The number 23 (and we're not talking about that cheap Jim Carrey flick). We're talking about 23 names to remember who have managed the Texas Rangers (Including when they played in Washington), though some of their actual stints with the club don't necessitate remembrance (think Ted Williams: great ballplayer, lousy manager). It's fun to go through the list and pick out the ones that have been the most successful. Obviously Johnny Oates would be the first choice, and Bobby Valentine, who managed from '85 to '92, was popular, even if he didn't bring the Rangers much success. And I guess I have to mention Buck Showalter. I was never a fan of Buck, but he did in fact bring the Rangers 89 wins in 04, my favorite season as a Ranger fan. But one of the most important managers in Ranger history is the current skipper, Ron Washington.

Ron Washington is now in his third year with the Rangers, and if his team struggles early on, like last year, then you can expect his job to be in jeopardy. But even though many (if you listened to 'Rangers Replay' on KRLD at the time, then you'll know what I mean) thought that Washington's stint was over after the Rangers started the season 8 and 16, I believed that Washington was here to stay, because what he started in 2007, he'll finish.

When Washington was signed after the '06 season, I heard him say in an interview that in 2007 he would bring the Rangers to the playoffs and the rest of the AL West would be sitting on the couch watching. I was ecstatic to hear this, but I also knew that the new manager was being a tad idealistic. However, his energetic presence, his terrific former reputation with Athletics, and his ability to correspond with the players were all qualities that Buck Showalter did not hold. Ron Washington was pulling up all of the dead flowers that Showalter had left and planting new ones in order to change the direction that the team was headed. Ron Washington spelled new life for the Rangers. Even though 2007 did not go as planned and many (again, Rangers Replay, which to me is the best way to find out what is truly on other fans' minds) considered him to be a failure, I thought that Washington accomplished a great deal that year, after he brought the Rangers from 'worst' to 'respectable.' As usual, Washington was blamed too much for the team's failures, and was not given enough credit for their success. Same story in 2008. We can expect 2009 to be slightly reminiscent to '08, though I think overall it will be a big improvement. We can also expect the mulling over whether Washington will be fired if the team struggles early on. Though some of Washington's decisions in games are questionable, his powerful presence has undoubtedly changed the team. Washington is the type of manager who helps out young teams. Like I said, he plants new flowers (excuse the somewhat schmaltzy metaphor) until they are ready to come into full bloom. As of March 26, the flowers have almost bloomed. But unfortunately when they are, I feel Washington's days may be numbered. I say this because when Washington's hard work (and that's not to say he's doing this alone) has finally paid off, we will have ourselves a playoff team. But if the team, when expected to play well, begins to struggle, you can expect Washington to be shipped out. Just think about what happened to Ned Yost in 2008. But regardless of what happens, we have to look at Washington as the right choice for manager over the past two seasons.

In the end, I feel that Washington's effort with the Ranger's won't be fully appreciated. I think people will finally start praising Jon Daniels, and maybe even Tom Hicks. But I get the feeling that Washington will be slightly ignored, which is unfortunate, because I think by his communication and work ethics with these players he has played one of the most important roles in the resurgence of the Texas Rangers.

All the way from Washington to Washington, the 23 managers we've had have been consistently bad. But if all goes well, then Ron Washington will be considered one of the great managers in Rangers history. Again, that's not saying a whole lot, but it's special nonetheless.

Wednesday: Baseball Prospectus Scouting Reports in Review

For anyone not familiar with Baseball Prospectus' annual publication, they break down every single player in the majors by team and provide original statistical analysis as well as witty, dry, and sarcastic commentary for most of the players (for instance, in the 2007 edition they referred to Jason Botts as "an honorary member of the Giambi clan" when discussing his defense at first base). It is an indispensable reference book for any stat-head baseball fan.

I thought it might be fun to look at what some of the earlier editions remarked about some of the younger players who are now with the big league club. Perhaps the most intriguing part about reading these reports is their variance from year to year, which chronicles their travels through both minor league ball and their first few major league years. I chose only players who were with the Rangers in 2006, 2007, and 2008 and will be (as of right now) in 2009, and I tried to pick the most interesting cases out of those criteria.


Joaquin Arias:

2007: "Part of the very light payoff for Alex Rodriguez, Joaquin Arias has the physical tools to be a fine shortstop . . . That doesn't mean he's going to be a useful major league player . . . "

2008: "When the Rangers traded Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees in early 2004, they had their chance of one of two athletic infielders in the Yankees' system. The Rangers chose Arias, passing on Robinson Cano. Whoops."

2009: "The problem is that his shoulder injury might effectively be the difference between a future as a second-division starter and that of a utilityman . . . his bat won't carry him anywhere as a regular but short."


Nelson Cruz:

2007: "Constantly being traded for reseve infielders can sap a guy's confidence . . . he's the best defensive fit for the job, but his bat may prove a bit light for a right fielder in Texas's low-gravity ballpark."

2008: "Over the last two seasons, Cruz has hit 35 home runs and slugged .580 at Triple-A, but he's been given two sizable opportunities with the Rangers and proven each time that he's probably yet another Quadruple-A talent."

2009: "Cruz's up-and-down career hit one of its upswings . . . the Rangers saw the error of their ways and brought him back in August, well after he'd belabored the point."


Taylor Teagarden:

2007: "He entered the year as a top prospect, highly regarded on both sides of the ball. With the [Tommy John] procedure, his ability to cut down the running game is thrown into question, but he's a very good handler of pitchers."

2008: "A frustrating prospect, Teagarden has been a Three True Outcomes hero . . . When Teagarden is behind the dish, he's one of the top defensive catchers around. If he can stay there, he's Mickey Tettleton with defensive chops."

2009: "One of the best defensive catchers in the minors, Teagarden calls a game like a veteran, is agile behind the plate, and absolutely shuts down the running game. If you really want to get dreamy and optimistic, think Mickey Tettleton with Gold-Glove level skills."


Scott Feldman:

2007: "Rangers pitchers must all have Tommy John baseball cards in the spokes of their bicycles. Another survivor of the procedure, Feldman has regained his control."

2008: "[Feldman] has spent the last two years splitting time between Triple-A and the majors . . . there's no reason to expect a great leap forward."

2009: " . . . got 13 quality starts in 28. This does not mean that he has a great future ahead of him as a rotation regular, but now he's a handy utility pitcher on a staff that always seems to need something."


Eric Hurley:

2007: "Hurley is beginning to look like the real thing . . . It wouldn't be surprising to see him in Arlington as a late-season call-up this year and battling for a rotation spot in 2008."

2008: "Hurley is seen by many as the top prospect in the Rangers' organization, but that's only because somebody had to be . . . He's still a very good prospect, but his ceiling is no higher than a solid third starter."

2009: "Once one of the top pitchers in the system, Hurley seems to be frozen in time, having made little progress the past two years . . . he's on the verge of being lost in the shuffle."


Josh Rupe:

2007: "Rupe was one of the Rangers pitchers who did the best job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2006. Nonetheless, this [3.10 ERA] is about as good as it's going to get for him. That means . . . a far higher ERA."

2008: "Rupe has big-league potential and a complete inability to stay healthy."

2009: "What does that make in today's era of over-managed pens? Mop-up Apprentice, first class? . . . He didn't have an exploitable split. He's still on the 40-man. No, there's no explanation."


Chris Davis:

2007: "[Davis] is a hulking first baseman who was among the Northwest leaders in homeruns. He'll have to keep it to move up because that's all he does well."

2008: "Davis put to rest any concerns about his California League showing in the first half being a league-based fluke . . . One of the top power prospects around, Davis's future will be dictacted by what he doesn't do: make much contact or play good defense."

2009: "Davis's game-breaking power didn't merely pound pitching . . . enjoy the bopping to come."

Milestone: 1,500 Page Views!

As always, I like to commemorate even the littlest of "milestones" here at HWC.

Here are links to the previous milestones:

500 views: February 13th

1,000 views: March 8th

My keen sense of arithmetic tells me that we've added this milestone a bit quicker than the first two, which means that more people are visiting the site!

Thanks to all those who have made it a point to stop by so far. I hope you continue to do so in the future.

John Paul

Tuesday Trivia

Today, we have a two way question for trades involving Mr. Steroids himself, Jose Canseco:

Question #1: The Acquisition of Jose Canseco

Who were the three players that the Rangers shipped to the Oakland Athletics for Jose Canseco in August 1992? Hint: all three players eventually returned to the Rangers later in their careers.

ANSWER: Bobby Witt, Jeff Russell, Ruben Sierra

Question #2: The Disposal of Jose Canseco

Who were the two players that were shipped to the Rangers in exchange for Jose Canseco by the Boston Red Sox in December 1994?

ANSWER: Otis Nixon, Luis Ortiz

And, if you can help it, baseball-reference is off limits!

Monday Movie: The Natural

Well, I'm back in one piece from the desert, and trying to get back into the swing of things. Speaking of getting into the swing of things, today's Monday Movie is from everyone's favorite baseball folktale, The Natural:

Sunday: Back In The Saddle Again

Having survived my 35-mile backpacking expedition through Canyonlands National Park (near Moab, Utah), I would like to thank Thomas and Jon for their exceptional work in my place over the last week or so. Those of you who stopped by were treated to great Rangers coverage from game-by-game coverage by Jon to more feature-like articles by Thomas.

This week will be an adjustment week -- the week that everyone dreads after returning from vacation with an immense pressure to hit the ground running again. Needless to say, however, you can expect a couple of articles here at Hello Win Column before the week is through.

Thanks to all those who stopped by in the last week, and many thanks to Jon and Thomas for their hard work in the past week.

Go Rangers!

John Paul

Weekend Recap: Time to say Goodbye

Well folks, it appears my cameo appearance here at HWC is about up. As I get started tonight I'd just like to take a moment and thank everyone who's stopped by HWC this week for reading/putting up with me - I'm sure everyone is looking forward to John Paul's return tomorrow. Props are also due to my cowriter Thomas for providing some thoughtful balance to my beat reporter-style game wraps this week - I think we made a pretty good combination, myself.

I do of course have some notes of interest for you tonight, but before we dive into those I owe you a look back over the week's articles:

Saturday we kicked things off with a loss to the White Sox.
Sunday, Thomas talked about the rewards of player development for us fans, while the Rangers beat the Padres.
Monday I engaged in some random speculation, and Thomas provided us with a gem for the Monday Movie.
Tuesday it was Trivia Time, while I rethought my approach to the game recaps.
Brandon McCarthy impressed and Josh Hamilton bunted on Wednesday.
Thursday was come-from-behind win day.
And finally, on Friday Thomas talked about what lies ahead for us this season and I examined the visual evidence of why nobody goes bungee-jumping in the dugout between innings.

Today the Rangers ran their week-long winning streak to six, beating the Rockies 8-4 in Surprise. Minor League 1B/OF Chad Tracy (no, not the one who plays for the Diamondbacks) hit a go-ahead grand slam in the 7th inning after Kevin Millwood allowed 3 runs and struck out 5 in 6 innings and Willie Eyre gave up the tying run in the top half of the inning. Jarrod Saltalamacchia also had a big day at the plate, stroking 2 doubles and a walk.

The real news of the day however was Andruw Jones, who made an A-game appearance as a late-inning replacement, going 1-2 with a run scored and a double as the DH - something we could apparently be seeing more of in the future, as the Rangers have apparently reconsidered their thinking about finding a spot for him on the 25 man roster. Now, as Evan Grant reports, Jones could find his way onto the team as a right-handed DH should the team choose to eat the dead weight of Frank Catalanotto and his $6 million dollar contract. Apparently the Rangers are concerned about the number of left-handed hitters on the roster, and with Chris Davis' spring slump, and the thought is that Jones would DH against left-handed pitchers while either Davis or Hank Blalock would sit.

I've got a couple problems with this idea, the first being that I'm not at all certain it's necessary. Hank does have a reputation of struggling against LHP's, but has showed improvement against them (albeit in limited sample sizes) over the last two years, OPS'ing .796 against them in '07 (200 points better than what he did in both '05 and '06) and putting up a .903 against them last year, despite his BABIP being 53 points lower against lefties than righties. Again, those came in limited time (Hank had only 47 AB's against lefties in '07 and 83 in '08) but it's an interesting trend nonetheless.

Chris Davis on the other hand actually OPS'd better against lefties (.916) than righties (.866) in his 295 AB's in the majors last year and has historically more than held his own against them in the minors as well (.935 career MiLB OPS against lefties). Even if you're still worried about his chances against tough lefties, isn't affording him the opportunity to face them and adjust part of the learning curve for a young player like Davis? Or could it be that the club has really allowed their confidence in the 23-year old masher to be shaken by a slow spring training?

Perhaps my most significant concern here however is the Sammy Sosa redux factor. Washington seems to have a tendancy to latch onto and overplay certain veteran role-players, as he did with Sosa in 2007 when he gave him 293 AB's against right-handers despite the fact that Sosa put up a putrid 676 OPS against them for the season. If Jones, whose career OPS against lefties is 51 points higher than against righties (and was almost 200 points higher against lefties than righties in his horrid performance last season) performs well in his duties as a lefty-killer and endears himself to Wash like Sosa did, the chance for a repeat of Ron's 2007 lapse in judgement seems uncomfortably high.

It seems to me all this "Jones as the RH DH" idea is really doing is swapping one useless player (Catalanotto) for a player who could A) unnecessarily steal playing time Chris Davis and B) possibly wind up being grossly overused by our homeristic manager. Doesn't seem to me like the benefits (and likelihood of reaping them) can justify the problems/risks here.

On a brighter note, the Rangers have added left-hander Jimmy Gobble - whom I mentioned on Wednesday, ironically enough - as insurance for CJ Wilson and Eddie Guardado in the bullpen lefty role (CJ, by the way, fired a scoreless inning in the 9th today looking extremely sharp and K'ing two in his return from his blister problem). Gobble battled control issues and back problems last year, putting up a horrible-looking 8.81 ERA, but it's worth noting his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was almost 3 full points lower (5.85) and his splits against left-handers last year still looked good, indicating there might be cause for hope that he can still prove useful as a LOOGY if needed. 3/22 UPDATE: the incomparable Joey Matschulat has an all-you'll-need-to-know writeup on Gobble this morning at BBTiA - check it out.

Last, but not least as we wrap up tonight's newsreel, Mike Hindman has more insight from the backfields to enjoy, focusing on 19 year-old left-hander Geuris Grullon, along with Michael Main, Martin Perez and Joe Wieland. Exciting stuff, as always.

That's about all I've got tonight - thanks again for reading folks, and thanks of course to John Paul for the opportunity to write here this week. It's really been a blast. Here's to ever-forward progress for the Rangers in 2009.

Friday Foto: Hank Blalock's great dugout dive

I couldn't come up with anything really original for today's Friday Foto, so I thought our readers might enjoy some visual evidence from Hank Blalock's dugout dive yesterday (photo credit goes to Yahoo Sports and whoever they got it from).

I'm sure it's a moment Hank would rather forget, but I'd bet it's something his teammates will be reminding him of fairly frequently, at least for another month or so. I'm just going to remember it as the time Hank was almost - almost - as clutch as Derek Jeter.

The Rangers where out in Tuscon today, taking on the Rockies - they won 11-5 with a solid outing from Matt Harrison (5 innings, 5 hits, 2 ER, 2 BB 3 K's) who was apparently happy with the way he threw his changeup. Big homers from Nelson Cruz and Frank Catalanotto drove the offense, while Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus went a combined 3-6 with 2 doubles in the leadoff/#9 slots.

Other highlights/lowlights included a scoreless 1-2-3 inning by relief prospect Pedro Strop in his spring debut (the Rangers of course snapped up the live-armed Strop after the Rockies released him over the winter). Derrick Turnbow struggled a bit in his lone inning (after some brilliant work against the Indians a couple days ago) giving up a run on 2 hits and a walk.

Perhaps most significantly, Michael Young left the game with a tight left quad after doubling in the third. It doesn't sound too serious at this point though - and I suppose it's worth pointing out sore quads and finger blisters are a lot better than the thoratic outlet syndrome and chronic elbow soreness of springs past.

In other news/links of interest, TR Sullivan says Nelson Cruz has been officially named the starting RF, supposedly beating Andruw Jones out for a job. I wasn't aware there was an actual competition between the two for an outfield slot (mainly because there shouldn't have been - we've been hearing Cruz was supposed to get one final shot this season since last September) but then again, this is probably just Sullivan trying to create some hype for Cruz as the season approaches.

Jones, by the way, will generously grace Surprise with his presence for a couple more days while he and Scott Boras try to figure out what to do now that his opt-out day has passed and he hasn't performed well enough to make the team. We're honored, I'm sure.

The actual link of interest: Mike Hindman has a report from the Rangers backfields in Surprise today, noting in particular the performances of Marcus Lemon, Johnny Whittleman and Zach Phillips. He also speculates that absent catching/outfield prospect Christian Santana might be one of the five Ranger prospects still held up in the Dominican Republic. For those of you who don't know, Santana's a toolsy catcher who supposedly has big raw power, but posted some horrible numbers and dealt with some injuries after an initial hot start in single-A last year, casting some doubt on his prospect status (which would probably disappear altogether if it's suddenly revealed he's a couple years older than he's supposed to be).

Now, I'm off to await the start of the imminent Battlestar Galactica series finale - hopefully this will be as epic a night for Sci-fi as it is a sad one.

Something Wonderful This Way Comes

As Spring Training dwindles, it's time to really begin to think about the regular season and what promises it may hold. Is it just me, or does 2009 hold a striking resemblance to 2008? The Rangers have made very few acquisitions this year, but, though one might criticize their lack of action in the off season, I think that is for their own strength because expectations will be lower, thus taking the pressure not just off of young guys like Chris Davis and Elvis Andrus, but also veterans like Hank Blalock and Michael Young. It is a known fact that just about everyone does better when pressure isn't high (take the 2004 Rangers for example), but when the pressure mounts, success is harder to come by (now take the 2005 Rangers). This will be an interesting season for the Rangers. One of their biggest investments in recent years, Elvis Andrus, will get his first test, Chris Davis will get to prove how powerful he really is at the big league level, Brandon McCarthy will get another opportunity to show what he's worth (the chip on his shoulder seems to be growing bigger and bigger), and a guy like Matt Harrison will get to show everyone whether or not he's a potential ace. Oh yeah, and David Murphy will...uh... be David Murphy. But this has been news to us since last year (with the exception of Andrus). There are other questions waiting to be answered: Will Josh Hamilton be better than last year? Worse? What about Michael Young? Are his 200 hit days over, or will he rebound again now that his hand is healed? Of course, another question, as stated in my most recent article, is whether Hank Blalock will be any good. I think everyone is extremely eager to find out the answers to these questions. There is still another one though that I was saving for last: What will Ian Kinsler do if he can stay healthy? Kinsler, one of my favorite Rangers, will, barring injury, likely make the All Star team again. As a matter of fact, if he can stay healthy, he could be seriously considered for the AL MVP. There is endless reason to be excited about the individuals on Rangers club this year, but will the team as a whole be any good, and last but not least, will the pitching hold up?

Everyone knows that pitching has always plagued the Rangers and to be honest, it's hard to see the staff shaping up this year. Still, my hope is that they can maintain a level of consistency. All I really ask is that they keep the Rangers in the game, because with our offense, average pitching can take us to contention. My greatest wish is that the Rangers get off to a good start. They need momentum to carry them through the season, and there's nothing like a hot start to generate that momentum. I sincerely hope that sports writers don't clutter the headlines with 'Another Ranger Season Down the Drain,' by May. In the end, it's up to the pitching to decide that. More questions can be raised about the bullpen: Frank Francisco was solid as the closer when C.J Wilson went down last year, but I don't see him as a closer for this team. My guess is that Wilson regains the job before too long. I think that a key player is Derek Turnbow. Turnbow was an all star a few years back, and he is definitely capable of being an effective pitcher. If he can return to his A form this year, I think the pen will be much better off.

There will be some other changes this year that are irrelevant to the players and that most of you are probably aware of. First of all, the Ranger uniform will be red on Saturday home games. I'm not against this, but it seems odd that they would only wear them on Saturday. I suppose it's sort of like the Red Sox wearing their green jerseys on certain occasions. Also, you can say goodbye to the Ranger's manual scoreboard in left field. Now we'll be looking at flashing lights and electronic images. Other news is that 105.3 the Fan will now be your home for Rangers radio broadcasts on weekdays. KRLD will still be broadcasting the weekend games. Finally, for those of you without cable television, you will have to be heavily reliant on your radios because FSNSW will be taking over an all time high 133 games. But hey, baseball was meant for the radio in the first place.

Soon another season will be upon us. Generally the months fly by. The hope is that we'll get one extra month of Ranger baseball this year. It will be interesting and exciting to see how these next several months pan out. I'm pretty sure there will be
some official predictions coming soon, so stay tuned. (P.S. I'd like to thank John Paul for allowing me to ramble about my favorite team during his absence, also, to Jonathan Page for his terrific game reports)

3/19 Game Report: Benson, Rangers overcome rough start to top A's

Be advised that I'm working primarily off the box score/MLB gameday feature here, as I missed most of this one - so I don't have too much original insight to dispense tonight as a result, but here's the rundown anyway:

Rangers 8, Athletics 5

- Kris Benson apparently had a dead arm and no fastball velocity today, which resulted in his getting roughed up for 4 runs in the first inning as the A's batted around on him. But Benson rebounded to allow just 2 baserunners over the next three innings, one of them reaching on a Hank Blalock error.

Blalock, back after 2 days on the shelf with a sore quad, had a bit of a rough afternoon in his first action at third base since last July. The Rangers are looking at him to be Michael Young's backup at third this year, as they don't think Joaquin Arias or Omar Viazquel has the arm strength to play there (which is kind of ironic, since that was the reason Hank was moved off third last year). It seems Hank found out not everything is as easy as riding a bike: he bobbled the first chance he got in the second, and then took a swan dive into the Oakland dugout in the 5th inning while chasing a foul ball.

"I thought I had it," Blalock said. "I was right there. Too much momentum. I'm pretty sure the ball ticked off my glove."

"I haven't played third base since last July. "I've been working on first base and my hitting. I had a couple of plays I should have made, but it showed I'm rusty. If the rust was gone, I would have been more used to my surroundings, broken down my momentum and just leaned over the railing. The effort was there; I just didn't make the play."

Blalock of course left the game with a couple nice gashes in his head for his trouble, but is apparently okay nonetheless - I only wish he could've actually made the catch, so we could call him as "clutch" as Derek Jeter.

- Dustin Nippert also left the game today with "stiffness in his right rhomboid" after pitching 2.2 innings of 1 run, 2 hit 2 walk ball. Dustin is a guy I'd like to see make the team this year just based on his pure stuff - and he's also pitched fairly well this spring, with only 2 runs and 4 hits allowed in his 8.2 innings pitched (for whatever spring sample sizes are worth).

- The big story of the day however is the announcement that the Rangers will not be placing Andruw Jones on the big league roster by Friday, after which Andruw can take his free agency if he so chooses. JD says he'd like to keep Andruw in camp after the deadline, but there doesn't appear to be room on the big league team for Andruw as Murphy/Hamilton/Cruz appears to be the starting OF options right now, and Byrd looks like a fully healthy backup again. Even the AAA Oklahoma OF roster seems full, with Brandon Boggs, Julio Borbon and Greg Golson appearing to be the probable starters there.

If Andruw opts out, it shouldn't be much of a loss for the Rangers - it was probably going to take a particularly impressive showing (or Marlon Byrd starting the season on the DL) for Jones to win a spot on the roster, and that just never really materialized. Jones hasn't even played in an "A" game in a a week, leading me to think that he hasn't been much of a priority for some time - I wish him luck elsewhere, but it seems all he ever was is an insurance policy, one that we're not going to need.

- Getting back to the game, the Rangers offense is still on fire - they came roaring back in a 6-run third inning to get Kris Benson off the hook and propel themselves to their fourth straight spring win. Omar Vizquel (who went 3-5 batting leadoff) got the scoring started with a single that scored two runs thanks to an error by A's CF Ryan Sweeny, and David Murphy and Marlon Byrd followed with a 2-run double and a 2-run HR respectively. They scored twice more in the 8th and Frank Francisco closed the game out in impressive fashion in the 9th, notching two strikeouts en route to the save.

- Other links of interest: Mike Hindman has a rundown of the infield/DH options up over at inside corner... the Rangers made another round of cuts today, while CJ Wilson and Luis Mendoza both threw live BP sessions.

3/18 Game Report: McCarthy brilliant as Rangers trounce Padres 9-4

So, it looks like the shorter game report from yesterday went over well, at least with one person (whom I would like to thank for the feedback, BTW). With that in mind, I'll do my best to keep from rambling as I take a late-night look at today's (yesterdays) highlights:

Rangers 9, Padres 4

- Brandon McCarthy finally looks like the pitcher we traded for back in the winter of 2006. I know all the John Danks homers are probably never going to truly let that one go, but maybe, just maybe B-Mac will at least make us forget about 2008 this year. After drawing rave reviews in his first outing of the spring last week, McCarthy pulled a near-repeat performance against the Padres today, going 4 innings without allowing a hit and racking up 3 K's and a 5-3 groundout/flyout ratio in the process. Two walks where the only blemish to his line. As Evan Grant notes, two of the major factors in his success this afternoon where his ability to stay ahead in the count, and throw his new "slurve" for strikes when he needed to - a major confidence booster, even though McCarthy himself admitted he didn't have his best stuff.

“I feel happy about where I’m at right now, but what I feel best about today was that I didn’t feel I had my best stuff and still got results,” McCarthy said. “I fought through it. The [slurve] still isn’t consistent on every pitch, but I was able to use it late in counts and get outs.”

ESPN scouting guru Keith Law also offered an assessment of McCarthy's latest outing on his blog, which wasn't quite as glittering as Grant's, but still definitely encouraging:

McCarthy showed an average fastball on Thursday, topping out at 91 mph, not quite what he showed in his last outing but good enough when he commands it, which he did. He has a hard slurve around 82-83 mph that's unusual for an in-between breaking ball in that it has power and an accelerating break.

...

[The slurve] is not a finished pitch -- he threw at least two at the same velocity with a weaker break and no angle -- but the above-average pitch is in there.

He showed good arm speed on his changeup, which was his best pitch before his arm trouble, and it had okay but not great fade. If this is what he is, he's a back-end starter, throwing strikes with average stuff. If he's still regaining arm strength, or the breaking ball becomes a lot more consistent (consistently good, that is), he can still come closer to meeting the industry's expectations for him from before he got hurt.

- Josh Hamilton on the other hand scared me today. No, he didn't tweak anything or look horribly bad at the plate - he beat out a bunt single during the Rangers 4-run first inning, and worse yet, according to TR Sullivan supposedly is considering it a viable strategy for the regular season.

"I'll do it as many times as they play me back," Hamilton said. "Maybe not in a situation where it's a tie game but if we're a couple of runs down and we need to get something started. I've been working on it in practice. ... I'm a pretty good bunter.

"The last time I did that in the Minor Leagues, I got fined $50."

As well you should have been, Josh. You OBP'd .371 last season, man. Your OPB actually went up in your first full season in the majors as opposed to your 90 games in Cincy in '07. You also slugged .530 (which was actually a drop, but still pretty freaky-good). Oh yeah, and you didn't lay down a single bunt, either. You don't really need any more help getting on base - if we're a couple runs down and we need to get something started, a hitter of your ilk is better off standing in the box and working the count.

As Evan Grant pointed out in his take on the subject, however, there are certain benefits to having Hamilton add an ability to bunt to his resume, as long as he doesn't overuse it - indeed, if it prevents teams from throwing a shift on him it could actually prove useful:

With Hamilton, the value is not in him actually bunting, but in making opponents think he’s willing to do so.

If Hamilton displays a willingness to bunt this spring, perhaps it finds its way into advance scouting reports, which might force teams to play him honestly and straight up. No shifting or cheating.

If that's the case, I'm all for it. But the way Josh is talking, he's either a really good actor, or he's caught what I believe is officially known as "Dusty Baker syndrome":

Asked if he planned to break out his new tool - perhaps making him the first six-tool guy in history - a couple of times this season, Hamilton looked aghast.

“A couple of times?” he asked rhetorically. “How about as many times as they play back and we need to get something started? I’m going to do whatever it takes. I’ve been playing around with it for a while and I figured out I’m a pretty good bunter. The object is to win games and if this helps us win some games, then so be it. Who cares how you get on base? Why can’t I be different? Why can’t I be a trend-setter?”

Well... I'll just let another blockquote from Evan answer that question:

Beyond announcing the threat, though, there really is no point in having a player like Hamilton bunt. If there are men on base, who better to drive them in than the guy that led the AL in RBIs last year? If it’s a tie or one-run game, Hamilton is much more likely to give the Rangers the run they need by himself than by bunting and relying on two more hits to get him home. If the club is down by a bunch of runs, he’d be just as well-served to start a rally by trying to work his way to a walk rather than laying one down.

Can I get an Amen?

- Aside from McCarthy looking sharp and Hamilton's bunt driving me bat-guano crazy, some of the other highlights of the day included Nelson Cruz, who went 1-2 with the big 3-run HR in the first inning and a walk, and Ian Kinsler who was 3-3. Basically, the Texas offense is on fire right now - hopefully they'll keep it going into the regular season.

Neftali Feliz also tossed two innings, finishing the game out in the 8th and the 9th. His line wasn't great, as he allowed 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk in two innings, but his developing breaking ball provided some cause for excitement as he dropped it on a pair of San Diego hitters for punchouts. The development of Feliz's curve (well, actually it's another curve/slurve, from what I understand) and changeup, as Baseball Prospectus guru Kevin Goldstein explained in Mike Hindman's Q&A back on March 10th, is going to be paramount for the young right-handers career, and by all the signs coming out of Arizona right now he's on the right track.

- And finally, a couple injury updates: Hank Blalock has sat the last two days with his sore quad and is still day-to-day, but has been taking grounders at third, while CJ Wilson is scheduled to throw a bullpen session today (Thursday). Also, Eddie Guardado still has a sore shoulder and is receiving treatment, while our left handed "walk specialist" Joe Torres has been examined for his back pain.

Which leads me to a random question: consindering the current dismal health of our left-handed relief candidates, is anyone interested in former LOOGY Jimmy Gobble, who has landed on the scrap pile after being cut by Kansas City (or even better yet, free agent lefty Will Ohman)?

Is Hank Still a Hammer?

Throughout the years, Hank Blalock has always been a bit of a mystery, an inscrutable tough guy who thrives on the upper cut swing. This has nothing to do with blalock's persona. his attitude remains terrific. He's a trying player, always making an attempt to do better. But Blalock, who comes from a complete baseball family (many of you recall his younger brother Jake, who played in the Ranger Farm System a few years back) was once considered to be a superstar, a George Brett-like force who could hit for power, run, field, and bring his A game to the park on a consistent basis. Well, as most Ranger fans are aware, Blalock's career hasn't exactly gone as planned. The question still waits to be answered though: Is Blalock really that good of a ball player, or was he simply overrated? Barring an injury or setback, I think this season will be Blalock's test. He'll get to prove how good he really can be.

In 2003, Blalock broke lose from his chain and became an all star. He was only 22 years old then. With 29 homeruns, 90 RBI, and a 300 AVG, it was easy to see why he was being compared to Brett. Hank was a potential super star, and a leader for the Rangers. Of course we all remember the 2004 season, when he found his power stroke and whacked 23 homers out of the park before the all star break. He made the All Star team (as well as the Homerun Derby) again that year and was considered to be one of the premiere young stars in the game. Yes, he hit two homeruns the night that his kid was born, but that was one of the few highlights Hank laid claim to during the second half of 04, a dismal two months in which his power and consistency decreased greatly. We were all sort of shocked, as we discovered our new star had a weakness: he couldn't hit in the second half of the season. This flaw in Blalock's game was one that we all thought would improve. With proper strength and conditioning, he would be able to conquer his Achilles' Heel. But 2005 proved to be just like 04, only Blalock's numbers decreased as a whole, as he failed to reach 100 RBI or 30 homeruns. Blalock's career continued to spiral out of control in 2006, when he smacked a dismal 16 homers, and hit just 266. And then we all know what happened after that. Blalock was at a cross roads in his career, and he was set on returning to his former state. He wanted to be an all star caliber player again. Then of course the injuries began to pile up, and for the next two seasons Blalock was limited to just 123 games.

I've heard a lot of people say that Hank Blalock was simply overvalued. He gave us a show at the beginning because he was excited, and now he's settled into his roll: an average player who likes to hit homeruns and gets injured a lot. Maybe this is true. Perhaps Blalock will never be that star he was brought up to be. But to me, there is no way you can take Blalock's numbers from 03 and 04 and say that this guy can't be a star again. Blalock's story is a sad one, because injuries prevented him from proving to the world what he was capable of doing. Now in 2009, which could be his final season with Texas, he gets one decisive chance to prove what he's worth. In my mind, Blalock is still a potential star, but that's only if he can stay healthy. But with his health problems, will Blalock ever be able to prove his true value? That's why this is such a great mystery. Not often do we get a top of the line player who has one major weakness, and then is unable to fight that weakness because of injuries. We may never know how good Blalock could have been. But He's only 28, and he still has plenty of baseball left in him, so there is still time for this mystery to be solved.

3/17 Game Report: Rangers clobber Tribe's Lee, 11-5

Going to try something slightly different today, as I'm a bit strapped for time - instead of one my long, detailed recaps we're just going to take a quick look at today's highlights. Cool?

- Scott Feldman looked like the 2008 Scott Feldman today - he cruised through the first four innings, working successfully around a bases-loaded jam in the third, and then got charged with 5 runs in the 5th when the Indians started the inning double, double, homer. Feldman's notable achilles heel in his first year as a starter in 2008 was his inability to stay effective deep into games - opponents lit him up last year for a .967 OPS against in the 6th inning, and a 1.271 OPS from the 7th inning on (he averaged about 5.76 IP per start, if my math is correct). This may only be the first time Feldman has gone beyond the 3rd inning this spring, but his performance today isn't going to do anything to help his reputation as a guy who tends to fall apart quickly once he gets tired.

That said, it should be noted that only 3 of the 5 runs in the 5th inning where earned (thanks to two errors, one by Michael Young and one by Nelson Cruz), and the last run came around to score on the watch of Josh Rupe, who had to finish the inning for Feldman.

- The guys who had the big days swinging the lumber for the Rangers? Josh Hamilton went 2-4 with 3 RBI (double and a 2-run single), Marlon Byrd was 2-4 with 2 RBI singles (and now has a 7-game hitting streak), Michael Young went 3-4 with an RBI double, and Ian Kinsler went 2-4 with a 2-run single. David Murphy and Nelson Cruz also had triples.

One thing of note is that Lee will probably be the Indian's opening day starter in Arlington about 19 days from now - so hopefully this is a good sign for the Rangers chances of snapping their opening day losing streak.

- The guy who provided some unexpected dazzling was Derrick Turnbow. He struck out the side in the 8th, and actually showed some exceptional command, his breaking ball being particularly effective (two called 3rd strikes with it). Turnbow (who has an unsightly 5.87 BB per 9 innings rate for his career) has struggled with his command at times this spring with 4 walks in 5 innings pitched (despite having 1.80 ERA) so this latest outing can't be described as anything less than jaw-dropping. Considering his career history, it's probably a fluke, but I'd say Turnbow's chances of making the bullpen just shot up a considerable amount today.

- Now that I've filled you in on the highlights, here's link to the box score.

And finally, as I wrap this up, some required reading: Jason Parks has his spring prospect interviews up over at BBTiA, as well as some more accompanying notes from his recent trip to Surprise. Go read them, and maybe some of Jason's awesomeness will rub off on you (although it doesn't seem to have worked for me).

Lastly, let me know if you prefer this quick(er) highlight-only style game report to the rambling, possibly over detailed game writeups I did this weekend - I can finish out the rest of the week's games this way, if my readers prefer.

PS - Happy St. Patricks day to all you Irish hooligans out there.

Tuesday Trivia

In 2004, a Ranger with the initials S N made a brief appearance with the club. What was his name and what was his position?

Monday evening notes: a healthy dose of random speculation

First of all, my thanks to Thomas for picking out the Monday Movie today. I am admittedly, a cinematic know-nothing, and Thomas picked a good one.

Before we go any further tonight, we've got an injury update on Hank Blalock from TXR.com - apparently Hank's quad is okay and is slated to play tomorrow (well, Hank and his quad both, actually). According to Ron Washington, his removal from the game yesterday was just a precautionary measure:

"Without a doubt, he's playing Tuesday," Washington said. "It was precautionary mode more than anything else today. He could have finished. Once he said he feels it a little bit, so we didn't mess around with it."

Good to hear.

Now, this is what I was going to get to last night, but didn't have the time for - you may remember all those notes from Evan Grant I linked to while evidencing the impression Derek Holland left yesterday. Well, that wasn't the only thing that stuck out to me. There's this, too on CJ Wilson (currently on the shelf with a blister on his pitching hand):

A callus that split open has delayed C.J. Wilson’s announced decision to return to the windup. He announced the decision on his Myspace blog, but when we tried to catch up with him, he didn’t have much to say about the new wrinkle in his game.

“I just thought it would look cool; what do you want me to say?” Wilson said. “I think it would give me more versatility in the future.”

......

Perhaps the most interesting thing about the blog entry is that a handful of Rangers officials I spoke to had no idea Wilson planned to take the windup into a game. Pitching coach Mike Maddux said he has seen Wilson throw from the windup in the bullpen, but there has been no discussion about a change to his delivery.

CJ, as you probably already know, is coming off a 2008 season soiled by injury and off-field drama that began with the now-infamous pre-season incident involving his statements in an ESPN insider article and on lonestarball.com, and culminated with the "ball flip" in August (in his final appearance before his season was cut short by surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow). After the August ball flip, the FWST's Jeff Wilson suggested that at least the latter of those two incidents may have stemmed from the mid-season departure of pitching and bullpen coaches Mark Connor and Dom Chiti, whom CJ apparently felt "understood" him - he and Chiti in particular apparently shared an of-field friendship.

Now, 8 months later we're presented with evidence that CJ is seemingly playing "lone ranger" (if you'll excuse the unintended pun) with adjustments to his pitching repertoire, without discussion or input from his coaches. I'd hate to be the one to make something out of nothing here (there's been enough of that done recently with the myspace quotes over on LSB, in the context of CJ's attitude toward Frank Francisco) but if this indicates that CJ's still not communicating with his new coaches, pitching coach Mike Maddux in particular, it might not bode well for his chances of rebounding to the form he flashed during his career-best campaign in 2007. As I've mentioned before, a healthy, and perhaps more importantly stable and cooperative CJ goes a long way toward helping the 2009 Ranger bullpen - so hopefully I'm simply now also guilty of making a mountain from a molehill here.

Now, speaking of the bullpen and bullpen lefties, Joey Matschulat has an article up today discussing left-handed relief, in which he iterates his lack of confidence in Kason Gabbard (which I have to say I share, BTW) as well as running down the Rangers other options for the role, now and in the future.

In other news, Evan Grant spent today discussing his man-crush on Justin Smoak (who's proved a bit of a sensation in camp this year) and focusing mainly on where the Rangers first round pick from last year's draft might be starting the 2009 season. Even discussed is the idea that Smoak could conceivably start the season in the majors - frankly, there's probably better odds on me winning the lottery, but I have to admit Grant's points on the subject aren't completely ludicrous. My guess is he'll start the season at AA Frisco (if only because people way smarter than me have told me that's the most likely scenario at this point).

The Rangers are going to have a very, very good problem on their hands within the next year as Smoak and Max Ramirez are inevitably going to join Chris Davis in the majors and in the 1B/DH slot. Though Ramirez is a catcher he seems to be third in line behind Jarrod Saltalamacchia (who, by all reports looks like the player his talent ceiling suggests he can be this spring) and defensive wizard Taylor Teagarden, possibly due to his reputation as a poor defensive player in the minors. At this point that would leave him ticketed to DH - only DH is going to be held down by either Smoak or Davis (or a rotation of both between 1B/DH) at some point if all goes well. Translation: unless Max somehow passes Salty and Teagarden on the catching depth chart (which he could, if Salty flames out - I don't have much confidence in Teagarden's bat justifying starting him over an offensive force like Ramirez, unless Max is borderline incapable of playing the position, but that's just my opinion) one of Davis/Smoak/Max is going to have to go. Max would seem the most likely for the ticket to trade fodder-land, although the fact that he's also probably the "least valuable" of the three could in fact work in his favor. Not only would Davis and Smoak command higher returns, Davis is represented by superagent Scott Boras, who notoriously doesn't believe in contract extensions and Smoak might be the one with the least professional playing time when the decision looms (which isn't in my eyes a reason to trade him, but you never know - sometimes the guy who has "proven" the least is the one the front office deems expendable). Suffice it to say that the winter (and perhaps even trade deadline) of 2009 is likely going to be a pretty exciting time for speculation (which seems to have been the running theme for this post, hasn't it? I think I'd best include it in the title.)

I'm going to leave you with that thought (which may or may not be because it's time for "24"out here on the west coast) - hopefully I've given everyone some food for thought and not reason to laugh tonight.

Monday Movie: The Pride of the Yankees

'The Pride of the Yankees' is one of the oldest and finest baseball movies ever made. It is a special story for many reasons, but most of all because it showed us a man (Lou Gehrig) who was not only a great ballplayer, but also a great person. He respected every human being and, as you know, considered himself to be very, very lucky. Movie legend Gary Cooper, who portrayed Gehrig in the film, demonstrated how truly remarkable an actor he was. His quiet, yet emotionally strong demeanor is put on grand display here. His greatest scene in the movie is the one you are about to see, in which he addresses Yankee Stadium and gives his final farewell. Of course this isn't as good as the actual speech that Gehrig gave, but it is still a classic movie moment that deserves recognition. 'The Pride of the Yankees' is not only a great baseball movie, but also an important piece of cinema that definitely gives us an accurate look of life and baseball back in its early stages. Enjoy.

3/15 Game Report: Rangers outslug Padres, 10-7

After losing two consecutive games in heartbreaking (okay, at this stage of the pre-season, maybe slightly annoying) walkoff fashion it seemed like the Rangers fortunes where due for a change Saturday. And a return to Surprise stadium seemed to be just what the bats needed as they cranked out 11 hits and 10 runs - including a trio of homers - to propel them past the Padres to a 10-7 victory.

While recently re-crowned opening day starter Kevin Millwood was only mediocre through his 5 innings (surrendering 4 runs on 6 hits and a walk, K'ing 2) the Texas offense would hit San Diego lefties Matt LeBlanc and Nick Schmidt hard early, tagging the two of them for 9 runs on 5 hits, 5 walks and an error. Michael Young, returned from the World Baseball Classic, got it started in the first, clubbing a solo homer, while the Rangers tacked on two more with an RBI walk and a sac fly by Elvis Andrus (who went 2-3 to go along with his bases-loaded free pass) and Ian Kinsler in the second.

The big inning came in the fourth, immediately after the Padres took a short-lived lead when minor leaguer Pete Ciofrone hit a solo homer off Millwood in the top of the frame. Chris Davis greeted Nick Schmidt with a home run to the opposite field (Davis' first of the spring), and perhaps shaken, Schmidt proceeded to walk two of the next three batters. Along with a throwing error by SD third baseman Brett Dowdy that plated a run, that set the table for the big blows from Josh Hamilton and pinch-hitter Travis Metcalf: a 2-run double and a 2 run single (respectively) to make it a 6 run inning.

Metcalf (who wound up going 2-3) only entered the game because Hank Blalock left the game with "tightness in his left quadriceps muscle", joining RHP Tommy Hunter as the second Ranger to succumb to a muscle strain today (Hunter had strained his right groin muscle in an intrasquad game earlier). Blalock of course has played only 123 games total over the last two seasons due to injuries - hopefully this is nothing, just like the Brandon McCarthy shoulder soreness scare last week, but you've got to be holding your breath just a little right now for Hank.

The Rangers didn't score again until Joaquin Arias lifted a solo homer in the 8th inning (as it was his only AB of the day, it upped his spring average to .550 - however it's only his first XBH of the entire spring) but the lead they pulled out to with that 6-run fourth proved to be enough for them to hang on, even through a horrid 6th inning by NRI lefty Joe Torres in which he walked four Padres and surrendered 2 runs. From what Evan Grant mentioned in his postgame wrapup, it appears the struggles of his latest outing may have "taken him out of the mix" for a possible spot as the Rangers bullpen lefty.

The real story on the pitching end came in the 8th and 9th innings though (after Willie Eyre, who is also fighting for a bullpen spot, worked around a double to provide a scoreless 7th) when hot prospect Derek Holland took the mound. "Dutch" might have turned in his best outing of the spring as far as his stuff goes (he certainly had Grant raving), mowing down the Padres in the 8th in order via flyout, groundout and strikeout, flashing a 94 MPH fastball, and then touching 96 as he struck out the first two hitters of the 9th as well. The only blemish came when it was time to get the games last out, as he grazed Kyle Blanks on the shinguard with a pitch and then got tagged for a double off the wall by Chad Huffman, who went 3-3 with 2 doubles on the day for the Padres. Sean Kazmar then managed to poke a single just past Joaquin Arias reach at second to bring in a run before Holland finally got Travis Denker to ground to Justin Smoak at first. That blemish aside however, Holland looked utterly brilliant - for whatever my opinions worth, I thought he flashed all the stuff and the composure you'd hope to see from a top prospect this afternoon.

So, to sum up: offense = good. Chris Davis may finally be awakening - Marlon Byrd (2-4) and Greg Goslon (1-1, 2B), who I didn't mention above also continue to impress this spring. Kevin Millwood wasn't great, but at least he didn't give up 10 runs on 12 hits this time. And of course Derek Holland... was just being Derek Holland.

Anyway, not to cut this abruptly short, as there are a few more notes I could go into now - but since it's getting late, and I'm rather late getting this up as it is, I figure I'll save it till tomorrow. After all, seeing as how Monday's an off day I'll need something to write about.