We all know the deal about Michael Young, in part because it was shoved down our throats during this past offseason when the whole "moving to third base" controversy surfaced: the Rangers are paying him a lot of money (an average of $16 million per year), and over the past four seasons (2005-2008), his vitals have substantially, if not continuously, decreased:
Year AVG/OBP/SLG
'05 .331/.385/.513
'06 .314/.356/.459
'07 .315/.366/.418
'08 .284/.339/.402
You don't have to be a statistical analyst to realize that this is not a great trend. The general consesus is that Young's glory days are behind him, and the general consensus may very well be right. However, I don't believe that all hope is lost.
Why? First of all, as Jamey Newbery wrote in an article previewing the 2009 season: "Ten unbroken fingers, rather than eight. Count on the numbers bouncing back."
Secondly, players similar to Michael Young have bounced back before. By "similar", I mean that I think they are similar. When I think of Michael Young, I think of an infielder with a team-first attitude that makes his living more by hard work and grind than natural talent (the other end of the spectrum being a player like Josh Hamilton). The most notable player who (mostly) fits this description is the Evil Empire's Derek Jeter. (Also of note, but not included here, is former Astros great Craig Biggio):
Granted, Jeter has played in the majors for much longer than Young and is certainly the superior of the two, and even during his "slumps", he was still pretty damn good. He was once mired in a steady downward slope from 1999-2002 and bounced out of it the year after:
Year AVG/OBP/SLG
'99: .349/.438/.552
'00 .339/.416/.481
'01 .311/.377/.480
'02 .297/.373/.421
Rebound Year:
'03 .324/.393/.450
I don't mean to imply that "Jeter did it, so Young is going to do it" or imply that Jeter's performance will affect Young's in any way. It is certainly possible, however, and not entirely unheard of, for a player like Young to come back strong. I wouldn't expect him to return to his 2005 batting champion levels ever again, but perhaps something splitting his last 3 seasons is more reasonable to expect.
On the other hand, Young's most similar players, according to Baseball-Reference, are (in order): Jose Vidro, Todd Walker, and Placido Polanco. What do these guys have in common? A few great years, followed or surrounded by slightly above average years.
Let's hope that all hope is not lost, and that Young responds to his current situation more like Jeter.
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