Wednesday: Baseball Prospectus Scouting Reports in Review

For anyone not familiar with Baseball Prospectus' annual publication, they break down every single player in the majors by team and provide original statistical analysis as well as witty, dry, and sarcastic commentary for most of the players (for instance, in the 2007 edition they referred to Jason Botts as "an honorary member of the Giambi clan" when discussing his defense at first base). It is an indispensable reference book for any stat-head baseball fan.

I thought it might be fun to look at what some of the earlier editions remarked about some of the younger players who are now with the big league club. Perhaps the most intriguing part about reading these reports is their variance from year to year, which chronicles their travels through both minor league ball and their first few major league years. I chose only players who were with the Rangers in 2006, 2007, and 2008 and will be (as of right now) in 2009, and I tried to pick the most interesting cases out of those criteria.


Joaquin Arias:

2007: "Part of the very light payoff for Alex Rodriguez, Joaquin Arias has the physical tools to be a fine shortstop . . . That doesn't mean he's going to be a useful major league player . . . "

2008: "When the Rangers traded Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees in early 2004, they had their chance of one of two athletic infielders in the Yankees' system. The Rangers chose Arias, passing on Robinson Cano. Whoops."

2009: "The problem is that his shoulder injury might effectively be the difference between a future as a second-division starter and that of a utilityman . . . his bat won't carry him anywhere as a regular but short."


Nelson Cruz:

2007: "Constantly being traded for reseve infielders can sap a guy's confidence . . . he's the best defensive fit for the job, but his bat may prove a bit light for a right fielder in Texas's low-gravity ballpark."

2008: "Over the last two seasons, Cruz has hit 35 home runs and slugged .580 at Triple-A, but he's been given two sizable opportunities with the Rangers and proven each time that he's probably yet another Quadruple-A talent."

2009: "Cruz's up-and-down career hit one of its upswings . . . the Rangers saw the error of their ways and brought him back in August, well after he'd belabored the point."


Taylor Teagarden:

2007: "He entered the year as a top prospect, highly regarded on both sides of the ball. With the [Tommy John] procedure, his ability to cut down the running game is thrown into question, but he's a very good handler of pitchers."

2008: "A frustrating prospect, Teagarden has been a Three True Outcomes hero . . . When Teagarden is behind the dish, he's one of the top defensive catchers around. If he can stay there, he's Mickey Tettleton with defensive chops."

2009: "One of the best defensive catchers in the minors, Teagarden calls a game like a veteran, is agile behind the plate, and absolutely shuts down the running game. If you really want to get dreamy and optimistic, think Mickey Tettleton with Gold-Glove level skills."


Scott Feldman:

2007: "Rangers pitchers must all have Tommy John baseball cards in the spokes of their bicycles. Another survivor of the procedure, Feldman has regained his control."

2008: "[Feldman] has spent the last two years splitting time between Triple-A and the majors . . . there's no reason to expect a great leap forward."

2009: " . . . got 13 quality starts in 28. This does not mean that he has a great future ahead of him as a rotation regular, but now he's a handy utility pitcher on a staff that always seems to need something."


Eric Hurley:

2007: "Hurley is beginning to look like the real thing . . . It wouldn't be surprising to see him in Arlington as a late-season call-up this year and battling for a rotation spot in 2008."

2008: "Hurley is seen by many as the top prospect in the Rangers' organization, but that's only because somebody had to be . . . He's still a very good prospect, but his ceiling is no higher than a solid third starter."

2009: "Once one of the top pitchers in the system, Hurley seems to be frozen in time, having made little progress the past two years . . . he's on the verge of being lost in the shuffle."


Josh Rupe:

2007: "Rupe was one of the Rangers pitchers who did the best job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2006. Nonetheless, this [3.10 ERA] is about as good as it's going to get for him. That means . . . a far higher ERA."

2008: "Rupe has big-league potential and a complete inability to stay healthy."

2009: "What does that make in today's era of over-managed pens? Mop-up Apprentice, first class? . . . He didn't have an exploitable split. He's still on the 40-man. No, there's no explanation."


Chris Davis:

2007: "[Davis] is a hulking first baseman who was among the Northwest leaders in homeruns. He'll have to keep it to move up because that's all he does well."

2008: "Davis put to rest any concerns about his California League showing in the first half being a league-based fluke . . . One of the top power prospects around, Davis's future will be dictacted by what he doesn't do: make much contact or play good defense."

2009: "Davis's game-breaking power didn't merely pound pitching . . . enjoy the bopping to come."