Tuesday: Commentator Query

It's time for another Commentator Query, a piece I do whenever I hear something questionable said on a baseball broadcast. You can read my last Commentator Query on a comment made about Kevin Youkilis during the World Baseball Classic broadcast on ESPN here.

The commentator in question is Steve Phillips from a comment he made during ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball broadcast of the White Sox - Rangers game. He stated that (slightly paraphrasing) "only one team since 2000 that has led the league in home runs has made the playoffs," his implication being that teams who hit a lot of home runs are less likely to make the playoffs.

Let's break down this argument:

1) First of all, the statement is slightly inaccurate. There have been 2 teams since 2000 that have led the league in homeruns that have made the playoffs: the 2008 White Sox and the 2004 Yankees.

2) Regardless of the truth of Phillips' claim, his argument alone is not enough evidence to assert his claim that home run hitting teams are less likely to make the playoffs. Why? There are 30 positions on the "most home runs" list. The (theoretical) probability that any one of those positions makes the playoffs is slim, whether it's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 15th. So the fact that only 2 teams who have hit the most home runs in all of baseball have made the playoffs is not at all surprising. For instance, the fourth place team on the home run list has made the playoffs 3 times since 2000. Does it make sense to assert that coming in fourth in home runs makes a team less likely to make the playoffs? Of course not, even though it is a statement logically equivalent to the statement made by Phillips. Needless to say, this does nothing to support his claim.

3) Now let's check Phillips' original claim: teams who hit a lot of home runs are less likely to make the playoffs. Instead of looking at each rank in the home runs list, we divide the rankings into thirds:

Since 2000, 35 teams in the Top 10 in home runs have made the playoffs.
Since 2000, 28 teams in the Middle 10 in home runs have made the playoffs.
Since 2000, 9 teams in the Lower 10 in home runs have made the playoffs.

It appears that there is some (though not strong) correlation between hitting a lot of home runs and making the playoffs. Regardless of strength of correlation, there is certainly no evidence to suggest that hitting a lot of home runs lessens a team's chances of making the playoffs.

4) Disclaimer: I realize that commentators have to talk for 3-4 hours about baseball, and (as many of us often do in conversation) find themselves speaking without thinking in depth about what they have said. Most of the time it works just fine, but occasionally they will make an assertion (such as this one) that requires more research. I imagine the argument that Steve Phillips meant to make was that offensively lopsided teams (such as our Texas Rangers) are less likely to make the playoffs, i.e. teams with monster offenses and no pitching are less likely to make the playoffs. As we Rangers fans know, this is much more likely to be true (but that's a study I'll save for another day).

(source: http://www.fangraphs.com/)