Tuesday: What the Tuesday Morning Box Score Won't Tell You (and Some of What It Will)

Despite the fact that I usually leave game recaps to Jon (who is much better at them), for particularly interesting games I had an idea about writing an article entitled "What the Box Score Won't Tell You (and Some of What It Will)". I'm going to reserve these articles for games in which the box score just doesn't do the game justice (which, if you want to get technical, is every game, but I'll save this for the extreme circumstances). This game, though the Rangers' fourth loss in a row, was certainly exciting and had a multitude of notable moments. For those who haven't had the chance to read-up on the game yet, here are the links: Recap, Boxscore

So, without further delay, here is the first edition of . . . .

What the Tuesday Morning Box Score Won't Tell You:
**Marlon Byrd got away with a defensive miscue in the first inning (that was not ruled an error) and led to a run
**Aubrey Huff, a Texas native from Mineral Wells, reached base all 5 times even though he struck out once
**On a similar note, Jason Jennings struck out 3 in the seventh but didn't strike out the side
**Koji Uehara (Baltimore's starter) collected the first three strikeouts of his American baseball career
**Elvis Andrus and Taylor Teagarden had key RBIs on groundouts to key a 3-run 6th inning
**The ever-so-atheltic Eddie Guardado fell down while fielding a comebacker in the 8th yet still threw the runner out
**Home plate umpire CD Bucknor upheld his notoriety for a consistently inconsistent strike-zone, frustrating pitchers and batters alike (especially Ian Kinsler, who was nearly ejected)
**Ian Kinsler led off the ninth inning with a clutch double, but followed with a not-so-clutch baserunning blunder on Michael Young's lineout to the wall
**Nick Markakis saved the game for the Birds when he slammed into the wall catching Michael Young's 9th inning screamer with Ian Kinsler on second base and no outs
**Marlon Byrd struck out to end the game with the tying run on third and the winning run on second

And Some of What It Will:
**Chris Davis busted out of an 0 for the season slump with a 3 for 4 performance and 1 HR
**Michael Young slugged his first HR of the year en route to a multi-hit night
**Andruw Jones had a double and a HR in a solid offensive outing as the DH/cleanup
**Rangers pitchers had 9 strikeouts
**There were only 12,184 fans in attendance
**Vicente Padilla and Scott Feldman soiled the sheets

Wednesday: Baseball Prospectus Scouting Reports in Review

For anyone not familiar with Baseball Prospectus' annual publication, they break down every single player in the majors by team and provide original statistical analysis as well as witty, dry, and sarcastic commentary for most of the players (for instance, in the 2007 edition they referred to Jason Botts as "an honorary member of the Giambi clan" when discussing his defense at first base). It is an indispensable reference book for any stat-head baseball fan.

I thought it might be fun to look at what some of the earlier editions remarked about some of the younger players who are now with the big league club. Perhaps the most intriguing part about reading these reports is their variance from year to year, which chronicles their travels through both minor league ball and their first few major league years. I chose only players who were with the Rangers in 2006, 2007, and 2008 and will be (as of right now) in 2009, and I tried to pick the most interesting cases out of those criteria.


Joaquin Arias:

2007: "Part of the very light payoff for Alex Rodriguez, Joaquin Arias has the physical tools to be a fine shortstop . . . That doesn't mean he's going to be a useful major league player . . . "

2008: "When the Rangers traded Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees in early 2004, they had their chance of one of two athletic infielders in the Yankees' system. The Rangers chose Arias, passing on Robinson Cano. Whoops."

2009: "The problem is that his shoulder injury might effectively be the difference between a future as a second-division starter and that of a utilityman . . . his bat won't carry him anywhere as a regular but short."


Nelson Cruz:

2007: "Constantly being traded for reseve infielders can sap a guy's confidence . . . he's the best defensive fit for the job, but his bat may prove a bit light for a right fielder in Texas's low-gravity ballpark."

2008: "Over the last two seasons, Cruz has hit 35 home runs and slugged .580 at Triple-A, but he's been given two sizable opportunities with the Rangers and proven each time that he's probably yet another Quadruple-A talent."

2009: "Cruz's up-and-down career hit one of its upswings . . . the Rangers saw the error of their ways and brought him back in August, well after he'd belabored the point."


Taylor Teagarden:

2007: "He entered the year as a top prospect, highly regarded on both sides of the ball. With the [Tommy John] procedure, his ability to cut down the running game is thrown into question, but he's a very good handler of pitchers."

2008: "A frustrating prospect, Teagarden has been a Three True Outcomes hero . . . When Teagarden is behind the dish, he's one of the top defensive catchers around. If he can stay there, he's Mickey Tettleton with defensive chops."

2009: "One of the best defensive catchers in the minors, Teagarden calls a game like a veteran, is agile behind the plate, and absolutely shuts down the running game. If you really want to get dreamy and optimistic, think Mickey Tettleton with Gold-Glove level skills."


Scott Feldman:

2007: "Rangers pitchers must all have Tommy John baseball cards in the spokes of their bicycles. Another survivor of the procedure, Feldman has regained his control."

2008: "[Feldman] has spent the last two years splitting time between Triple-A and the majors . . . there's no reason to expect a great leap forward."

2009: " . . . got 13 quality starts in 28. This does not mean that he has a great future ahead of him as a rotation regular, but now he's a handy utility pitcher on a staff that always seems to need something."


Eric Hurley:

2007: "Hurley is beginning to look like the real thing . . . It wouldn't be surprising to see him in Arlington as a late-season call-up this year and battling for a rotation spot in 2008."

2008: "Hurley is seen by many as the top prospect in the Rangers' organization, but that's only because somebody had to be . . . He's still a very good prospect, but his ceiling is no higher than a solid third starter."

2009: "Once one of the top pitchers in the system, Hurley seems to be frozen in time, having made little progress the past two years . . . he's on the verge of being lost in the shuffle."


Josh Rupe:

2007: "Rupe was one of the Rangers pitchers who did the best job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2006. Nonetheless, this [3.10 ERA] is about as good as it's going to get for him. That means . . . a far higher ERA."

2008: "Rupe has big-league potential and a complete inability to stay healthy."

2009: "What does that make in today's era of over-managed pens? Mop-up Apprentice, first class? . . . He didn't have an exploitable split. He's still on the 40-man. No, there's no explanation."


Chris Davis:

2007: "[Davis] is a hulking first baseman who was among the Northwest leaders in homeruns. He'll have to keep it to move up because that's all he does well."

2008: "Davis put to rest any concerns about his California League showing in the first half being a league-based fluke . . . One of the top power prospects around, Davis's future will be dictacted by what he doesn't do: make much contact or play good defense."

2009: "Davis's game-breaking power didn't merely pound pitching . . . enjoy the bopping to come."

Thursday: BABIP Revisited

To follow up on yesterday's post about BABIP for pitchers I thought we could examine the statistic through an offensive lens. It works slightly differently for hitters: the league average of .300 is not always helpful when examining a hitter's BABIP. For instance, Ichiro has a career BABIP of .356. Instead of being the result of a terrible amount of luck over his entire career, this is due to the fact that he is a terrific hitter. On the other hand, it has been shown that (up to a certain point) pitchers have little to no control over their BABIP. In other words, hitters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers do. Nevertheless, extraordinarily high or low BABIPs can still be used to predict future performance.

Most of the BABIPs for Rangers hitters from 2008 were as expected, but the following cases were somewhat surprising:

Milton Bradley: 2008 BABIP: .396 Career BABIP: .326

First of all, I expect a hitter of the Milton Bradley variety to have a high BABIP to begin with: he works the count to wait for the right pitch (4.00 PPA in 2008), swings and misses a lot (25.7% of the times he swung in 2008), and he mashes the ball when he does connect (.563 SLG in 2008). It certainly helped that he stung more line drives (24.7% LDs, more than the previous 4 seasons). But it doesn't matter who is being considered: George Brett, Tony Gwynn, Ted Williams, Ichiro Suzuki; a .396 BABIP is incredible (and most likely unsustainable). Especially when considering that Milton's 2008 mark was 70 points higher than his career BABIP. I concur with Bill James, who predicts that Bradley's 2009 BABIP will regress to a .341 mark (much closer to his career total). This means, of course, that Bradley probably won't hit .321 again. Fortunately for the Cubs, however, that still isn't too shabby.

Ramon Vazquez: 2008 BABIP: .355 Career BABIP: .315

To Vazquez's credit, he did hit more line drives in 2008 than ever before in his career (27.3% LDs) and significantly fewer fly balls (26.4% FBs compared to 35.6% in 2007). His luck started to catch up with him at the end of the season, however, as he hit .208/.317/.226 in August and .133/.235/.200 in September. Look for his BABIP to regress to .315 and for his batting average to return to his career average of .257.

Other players with notable BABIPs, but not enough career data to be significant:

Chris Davis: 2008 BABIP .353
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 2008 BABIP .388
Taylor Teagarden: 2008 BABIP .409
Jason Botts: 2008 BABIP .222

Around the Horn: Valentines Day Edition

Morning post today because I'm taking my fiance out for Valentine's Day tonight . . .

Yesterday I commemorated the first "milestone" for this blog. I calculated that to match LoneStarBall's impressive 15,000,000 page viewings at this rate, it would take approximately 1,154 years. Still, we have something to shoot for. Maybe the Rangers will have won the World Series by then.

Jeff Wilson runs down the biggest questions for the Rangers this season, including, but not limited to: Nelson Cruz, Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Brandon McCarthy, Frank Francisco, CJ Wilson, Elvis Andrus. I'm going to throw another one out there: Michael Young. He is definitely one of the players to watch to see how he returns from a sub-par offseason and how he performs at his new position.

Jim Reeves writes about Andruw Jones and his role on the team, referring to him mostly as an insurance policy. It's good to know the Rangers aren't putting too much stock in Jones, but my question is: Insurance policy for what? The densely populated outfield already insures against all basic problems and injuries. Even if, God forbid, we had serious injuries in the outfield, even if Nelson Cruz returns to his AAAA-hitter form, there are players on this team and in this organization that I'd rather see fill that role over Jones.

Mike Hindman at the DMN Blog shows the similarities between Michael Main's delivery and . . . Nolan Ryan's. A bit of a stretch, but you can see where he's coming from. Includes cool graphics!

TR Sullivan has a great rundown of memorable moments from Spring Trainings past.

12 days until Spring Training!

Around the Horn: Monday (Night)

Most of the news relating to our Texas Rangers today is about a former shortstop (and I'm not talking about Michael Young). I'm going to write about that soon, but until then there is news over players actually playing for the Rangers now (albeit not much):

TR Sullivan runs down the Spring competition. It's business as usual most of the way around the diamond, with notable competitions at catcher with Saltalamacchia and Teagarden and in the outfield with the whole Andruw Jones enigma.

Baseball Prospectus posted their PECOTA-based standings projections for 2009. They are not too kind to the Rangers, who are predicted to post an uninspiring 72-90. I don't think the Rangers were projected to win as many as 79 games last year, so that may be slightly encouraging.

Yahoo! Sports also wrote their 2009 scouting report about the Rangers, noting that the offense may be as much of a problem as the pitching . . .

And that is about it for today. Spring training starts in 17 days!

Around the Horn: Wednesday

The first Spring Training game is in three weeks and one day . . .

Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Maz Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Joaquin Arias made USA Today Sports Weekly's Top 100 Names You Need to Know list in that order. Arias? Here is what they had to say:

"86. Joaquin Arias, SS, Rangers: Arias, 24, had shoulder surgery in 2007 that limited his arm strength in 2008, and the emergence (and apparent anointing) of Elvis Andrus as the shortstop of the present and future casts Arias' role in doubt. Assuming Andrus pans out, Arias will have upside, possibly as a super-utility player."

I think its a bit odd to have a "super-utility" player in your Top 100 list, but at least the description is accurate. Recall how we required Arias: he was the player to be named later in the Alex Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano deal. Follow the link and read the list of other players the Rangers could have chosen from . . . most notably the only other infielder. I know we have Kinsler, but wouldn't it be nice to have this guy instead of Arias?

It turns out that Josh Hamilton is staying put in centerfield for at least this season. Appropriately, it appears that Nolan Ryan's announcement was a bit too fast. I imagine a lot of it has to do with the development of centerfield prospect Julio Borbon. Judging from this non-move, I would imagine we will not be seeing Borbon until late September at the very least, and possibly not until next year alltogether.

To conclude and follow up on two points I made yesterday (thanks to those who posted updated comments):

It is confirmed that Eddie Guardado has signed with the Rangers on a minor league one-year deal. He will most likely be rounding out the bullpen. I would love to write about how I agree with this situation, but Joey Matschulat at Baseball Time in Arlington has done a much better job than I would have breaking down Everyday Eddie's return, including a month-by-month look at his 2008 statistics and probable reasons for his semi-meltdown late in the year. Also, Adam Morris at LoneStarBall provides his outlook on the 2009 bullpen.

It has been formally announced that 105.3 The Fan, an FM affiliate of KRLD, is going to be broadcasting weekday games, and KRLD is going to be broadcasting weekend games. Additionally, 105.3 is going to air 18 spring training games this year.