Thursday: Andruw Jones and the Rangers of the Lost Spark

I had another post planned for today, but in light of some recent roster moves I thought this might be more fun. Please excuse the pun in the title, I couldn't help myself.

Roster Move in Question: Keeping Andruw Jones

For those interested, all of us here at HWC have already written about some aspect of this situation:

John Paul: On Andruw Jones
Jon: Andruw Jones, Fourth Outfielder?
Thomas: The Departed

Additionally, Fan Graphs has a nice breakdown of the Ranger outfield which focuses on Jones and Murphy.

For now, let's examine why the Rangers could have done this:

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #1: If he reverts to form, he will be a valuable addition to the team

In my previous article here at HWC, I predicted that Jones (with regular playing time) will post a .249/.333/.468 line this year. Not too shabby, I suppose, until you consider the current logjam in the Rangers outfield (shown with their Bill James 2009 projections):

Josh Hamilton (.310/.384/.556)
David Murphy (.277/.335/.456)
Nelson Cruz (.278/.352/.535)
Marlon Byrd (.283/.357/.430)

Not to mention the possibilities at designated hitter:

Hank Blalock (.282/.346/.476)
Chris Davis (.302/.352/.599)
Max Ramirez (.308/.390/.548)

I don't think that anyone can make a case that bringing in a wild card like Jones is going to be an improvement over any of those guys. And that is exactly what is going to happen: when Jones is in the lineup, someone on that list is going to be sitting. Even if Jones were to return to form, he's no more valuable than anyone the Rangers already have (read: anyone he would be stealing playing time from).

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #2: He can be valuable off the bench

First of all, if the Rangers wanted a versatile outfielder who can pinch-hit and fill in when necessary, they shouldn't have released Frank Catalanotto. While Jones is certainly superior defensively, his strikeout rate makes him a recipe for disaster at pinch hitter. What team wants a regular pinch hitter to be someone who strikes out in excess of once every 5 trips to the plate?

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #3: He's being showcased for a trade down the line

If Jones does revert to his old form, it is certainly possible that he could be valuable to a contending team short on outfielders at the trade deadline. The problem? To convince teams that he has found his old form, he needs to receive significant playing time. Return to Possible Reason #1.

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #4: He's just an insurance policy

After entertaining some of these situations, this is the only one that makes sense and is the only possible reason that doesn't trigger a vomit reflex. If this scenario is true, it may be due to the Rangers' paranoia about another dismal start to the season in April (see: 2007 and 2008). For instance, if Nelson Cruz reverts to his Quadruple-A hitter form like he did in April 2007, then Jones slides into the 4th outfielder role.

He could also be an insurance policy against injury. Murphy, Cruz, and Byrd all spent time on the disabled list last season. While this idea certainly looks good on paper, Jones isn't just going to sit until someone slumps or someone gets hurt. He's likely to be worked into the lineup semi-regularly. Return to Possible Reason #1.

Wednesday: Baseball Prospectus Scouting Reports in Review

For anyone not familiar with Baseball Prospectus' annual publication, they break down every single player in the majors by team and provide original statistical analysis as well as witty, dry, and sarcastic commentary for most of the players (for instance, in the 2007 edition they referred to Jason Botts as "an honorary member of the Giambi clan" when discussing his defense at first base). It is an indispensable reference book for any stat-head baseball fan.

I thought it might be fun to look at what some of the earlier editions remarked about some of the younger players who are now with the big league club. Perhaps the most intriguing part about reading these reports is their variance from year to year, which chronicles their travels through both minor league ball and their first few major league years. I chose only players who were with the Rangers in 2006, 2007, and 2008 and will be (as of right now) in 2009, and I tried to pick the most interesting cases out of those criteria.


Joaquin Arias:

2007: "Part of the very light payoff for Alex Rodriguez, Joaquin Arias has the physical tools to be a fine shortstop . . . That doesn't mean he's going to be a useful major league player . . . "

2008: "When the Rangers traded Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees in early 2004, they had their chance of one of two athletic infielders in the Yankees' system. The Rangers chose Arias, passing on Robinson Cano. Whoops."

2009: "The problem is that his shoulder injury might effectively be the difference between a future as a second-division starter and that of a utilityman . . . his bat won't carry him anywhere as a regular but short."


Nelson Cruz:

2007: "Constantly being traded for reseve infielders can sap a guy's confidence . . . he's the best defensive fit for the job, but his bat may prove a bit light for a right fielder in Texas's low-gravity ballpark."

2008: "Over the last two seasons, Cruz has hit 35 home runs and slugged .580 at Triple-A, but he's been given two sizable opportunities with the Rangers and proven each time that he's probably yet another Quadruple-A talent."

2009: "Cruz's up-and-down career hit one of its upswings . . . the Rangers saw the error of their ways and brought him back in August, well after he'd belabored the point."


Taylor Teagarden:

2007: "He entered the year as a top prospect, highly regarded on both sides of the ball. With the [Tommy John] procedure, his ability to cut down the running game is thrown into question, but he's a very good handler of pitchers."

2008: "A frustrating prospect, Teagarden has been a Three True Outcomes hero . . . When Teagarden is behind the dish, he's one of the top defensive catchers around. If he can stay there, he's Mickey Tettleton with defensive chops."

2009: "One of the best defensive catchers in the minors, Teagarden calls a game like a veteran, is agile behind the plate, and absolutely shuts down the running game. If you really want to get dreamy and optimistic, think Mickey Tettleton with Gold-Glove level skills."


Scott Feldman:

2007: "Rangers pitchers must all have Tommy John baseball cards in the spokes of their bicycles. Another survivor of the procedure, Feldman has regained his control."

2008: "[Feldman] has spent the last two years splitting time between Triple-A and the majors . . . there's no reason to expect a great leap forward."

2009: " . . . got 13 quality starts in 28. This does not mean that he has a great future ahead of him as a rotation regular, but now he's a handy utility pitcher on a staff that always seems to need something."


Eric Hurley:

2007: "Hurley is beginning to look like the real thing . . . It wouldn't be surprising to see him in Arlington as a late-season call-up this year and battling for a rotation spot in 2008."

2008: "Hurley is seen by many as the top prospect in the Rangers' organization, but that's only because somebody had to be . . . He's still a very good prospect, but his ceiling is no higher than a solid third starter."

2009: "Once one of the top pitchers in the system, Hurley seems to be frozen in time, having made little progress the past two years . . . he's on the verge of being lost in the shuffle."


Josh Rupe:

2007: "Rupe was one of the Rangers pitchers who did the best job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2006. Nonetheless, this [3.10 ERA] is about as good as it's going to get for him. That means . . . a far higher ERA."

2008: "Rupe has big-league potential and a complete inability to stay healthy."

2009: "What does that make in today's era of over-managed pens? Mop-up Apprentice, first class? . . . He didn't have an exploitable split. He's still on the 40-man. No, there's no explanation."


Chris Davis:

2007: "[Davis] is a hulking first baseman who was among the Northwest leaders in homeruns. He'll have to keep it to move up because that's all he does well."

2008: "Davis put to rest any concerns about his California League showing in the first half being a league-based fluke . . . One of the top power prospects around, Davis's future will be dictacted by what he doesn't do: make much contact or play good defense."

2009: "Davis's game-breaking power didn't merely pound pitching . . . enjoy the bopping to come."

Around the Horn: Thursday (Night)

Just a couple of things of note out there today . . .

USA Today wrote a nice article about Michael Young's move to third base. Despite all the criticism out there about Michael Young, he has been my favorite player for almost his entire tenure with the Rangers. This excerpt reminded me why:

Although he originally asked to be traded, Young said his heart wasn't in the request."One reason why I wanted to come back is I wanted to see this through," Young said. "I'm going into my ninth year with the Rangers so when this team turned it around I wanted to be there for them. I want to be one of the main contributors."

Also of some interest, the Indians designated Andy Marte for assignment. Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball wrote:

You have to wonder if, as a Dominican who was terrific at the lower levels at a young age but seemed to have plateaued, he isn't really 28 or 29. At ages 18-21, while being young for his levels, he consistently put up 800+ OPS numbers, but simply hasn't hit in the majors (and, really, hasn't hit that well in AAA the past couple of years).

Why is this of interest? Nelson Cruz is also a Dominican with great minor league numbers and not-so-great major league numbers . . .

And TR Sullivan has some fun facts and quotes posted on his blog . . .

One week until Spring Training!

Around the Horn: Valentines Day Edition

Morning post today because I'm taking my fiance out for Valentine's Day tonight . . .

Yesterday I commemorated the first "milestone" for this blog. I calculated that to match LoneStarBall's impressive 15,000,000 page viewings at this rate, it would take approximately 1,154 years. Still, we have something to shoot for. Maybe the Rangers will have won the World Series by then.

Jeff Wilson runs down the biggest questions for the Rangers this season, including, but not limited to: Nelson Cruz, Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Brandon McCarthy, Frank Francisco, CJ Wilson, Elvis Andrus. I'm going to throw another one out there: Michael Young. He is definitely one of the players to watch to see how he returns from a sub-par offseason and how he performs at his new position.

Jim Reeves writes about Andruw Jones and his role on the team, referring to him mostly as an insurance policy. It's good to know the Rangers aren't putting too much stock in Jones, but my question is: Insurance policy for what? The densely populated outfield already insures against all basic problems and injuries. Even if, God forbid, we had serious injuries in the outfield, even if Nelson Cruz returns to his AAAA-hitter form, there are players on this team and in this organization that I'd rather see fill that role over Jones.

Mike Hindman at the DMN Blog shows the similarities between Michael Main's delivery and . . . Nolan Ryan's. A bit of a stretch, but you can see where he's coming from. Includes cool graphics!

TR Sullivan has a great rundown of memorable moments from Spring Trainings past.

12 days until Spring Training!

Around the Horn: Weekend Edition

It would be nice if the biggest Rangers news of the weekend involved a player actually on the roster . . . but I will save that for a different post.

TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers have signed Andruw Jones. I'm questioning the motives of the Rangers a little bit here. Jones used to be a fine defensive centerfielder, and a Sammy Sosa-like power hitter. With the current logjam the Rangers have in the outfield with Murphy, Hamilton, Byrd, Cruz, Boggs, Catalanotto, and eventually Borbon, it is difficult to see how adding an aging centerfielder on a quest to resurrrect his career is going to help the Rangers. It seems even more detrimental when considering who he is going to be stealing at-bats from. Murphy? Cruz? Boggs? Possibly Borbon? The Rangers will benefit much more from any of these players taking the field more often than Jones. It is a low risk financially, but given the Rangers interest in acquiring a heavy right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup, I think that a decent performance by Jones will inevitably mark the end of the road for Blalock or Murphy.

Moving on to signings that have been completed, the Rangers signed veteran reliever Brendan Donnelly to a minor league contract. If, like me, you weren't terribly familiar with Donnelly before this move, you can find his stats here. I have to say that I was impressed with Donnelly's numbers: a career ERA of 3.12 and only one season over 3.94 (last season was a bit disastrous for him at 8.56, which helps explain why he is still available). Reading some of the comments posted on different websites, some reactions are of the sort: "Why do we keep signing all of these washed-up has-beens?" I have several responses to this:

1) They are cheap.
2) They are low risk.
3) They are pretty much all that is available.
4) They provide an injury insurance policy (see: Joaquin Benoit, Eric Hurley).
5) The Rangers don't want to rush any of the young arms in the minors before they are ready.
6) As Adam Morris of LoneStarBall stated in this post, "[The] interesting thing about bullpens is that most of the ones that end up doing really well have some guys pop up out of nowhere. Really, that's what makes bullpens so unique...you can often times dig up a guy as an NRI or as a fringe prospect who can have some things click in the pen and become a quality reliever."

The most important issue here, I think, is that the Rangers are settting their sights on 2010. The signing of guys like Donnelly, Derrick Turnbow, and Eddie Guardado ensures that guys like Neftali Feliz are not Edinson Volquez-ed and rushed up here too quickly. I think signing guys like Guardado, Turnbow, and Donnelly are different than say, Jamey Wright, because Wright was never actually all that good, ever. These guys have a number of productive seasons under their belt. And, you never know, they just may have some gas left in the tank.

Also, Jason Parks of Baseball Time in Arlington posted an in-depth scouting report on Julio Borbon. For those who are not terribly familiar with scouting or with Borbon, this is a good read.

Around the Horn: Super Bowl Sunday

Anthony Andro at the Star-Telegram takes an interesting look at every farm system that Baseball America has ranked #1. Fortunately for the Rangers, he notes that all but three of the corresponding big league teams have made the playoffs in subsequent years. The article includes a breakdown of each of the playoff bound teams and the contributions of their respective farm systems. Of particular interest to me were his notes on the Atlanta Braves 1990s dynasty, the Rangers of the late 1990s, and last year's upstart Tampa Bay Rays.

In the same paper, Jim Reeves talks about Nolan Ryan's desire to move Josh Hamilton to right field. Ryan claims that Hamilton is "too big" to be a centerfielder, and that Cruz or Byrd will likely replace him in center. First of all, I don't think is a bad idea given Hamilton's health and conditioning concerns. But the fact that Hamilton is "too big" and Nelson Cruz is just right confuses me (I tried to find a reliable source for their heights and weights, but Baseball Reference and Bill James have conflicting reports). Personally, if its between Hamilton and Cruz in center, I would go with Hamilton. If Hamilton does indeed go to right, I hope Byrd gets the nod there over Cruz (at least defensively).

Another issue this raises is what to do about Cruz. His cannon of an arm is better utilized in center or in right. With Hamilton allegedly moving, would Cruz be more likely to play in left, in center, or in a 4th outfielder role?

In non-Rangers news, there is talk that the Braves may bring back the recently released Andruw Jones, who is available for the $400,000 minimum.

Also, the Brewers have signed Trevor Hoffman, and the Red Sox have signed Kevin Youkilis to a long term deal.