Tuesday: What the Tuesday Morning Box Score Won't Tell You (and Some of What It Will)

Despite the fact that I usually leave game recaps to Jon (who is much better at them), for particularly interesting games I had an idea about writing an article entitled "What the Box Score Won't Tell You (and Some of What It Will)". I'm going to reserve these articles for games in which the box score just doesn't do the game justice (which, if you want to get technical, is every game, but I'll save this for the extreme circumstances). This game, though the Rangers' fourth loss in a row, was certainly exciting and had a multitude of notable moments. For those who haven't had the chance to read-up on the game yet, here are the links: Recap, Boxscore

So, without further delay, here is the first edition of . . . .

What the Tuesday Morning Box Score Won't Tell You:
**Marlon Byrd got away with a defensive miscue in the first inning (that was not ruled an error) and led to a run
**Aubrey Huff, a Texas native from Mineral Wells, reached base all 5 times even though he struck out once
**On a similar note, Jason Jennings struck out 3 in the seventh but didn't strike out the side
**Koji Uehara (Baltimore's starter) collected the first three strikeouts of his American baseball career
**Elvis Andrus and Taylor Teagarden had key RBIs on groundouts to key a 3-run 6th inning
**The ever-so-atheltic Eddie Guardado fell down while fielding a comebacker in the 8th yet still threw the runner out
**Home plate umpire CD Bucknor upheld his notoriety for a consistently inconsistent strike-zone, frustrating pitchers and batters alike (especially Ian Kinsler, who was nearly ejected)
**Ian Kinsler led off the ninth inning with a clutch double, but followed with a not-so-clutch baserunning blunder on Michael Young's lineout to the wall
**Nick Markakis saved the game for the Birds when he slammed into the wall catching Michael Young's 9th inning screamer with Ian Kinsler on second base and no outs
**Marlon Byrd struck out to end the game with the tying run on third and the winning run on second

And Some of What It Will:
**Chris Davis busted out of an 0 for the season slump with a 3 for 4 performance and 1 HR
**Michael Young slugged his first HR of the year en route to a multi-hit night
**Andruw Jones had a double and a HR in a solid offensive outing as the DH/cleanup
**Rangers pitchers had 9 strikeouts
**There were only 12,184 fans in attendance
**Vicente Padilla and Scott Feldman soiled the sheets

Thursday: Andruw Jones and the Rangers of the Lost Spark

I had another post planned for today, but in light of some recent roster moves I thought this might be more fun. Please excuse the pun in the title, I couldn't help myself.

Roster Move in Question: Keeping Andruw Jones

For those interested, all of us here at HWC have already written about some aspect of this situation:

John Paul: On Andruw Jones
Jon: Andruw Jones, Fourth Outfielder?
Thomas: The Departed

Additionally, Fan Graphs has a nice breakdown of the Ranger outfield which focuses on Jones and Murphy.

For now, let's examine why the Rangers could have done this:

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #1: If he reverts to form, he will be a valuable addition to the team

In my previous article here at HWC, I predicted that Jones (with regular playing time) will post a .249/.333/.468 line this year. Not too shabby, I suppose, until you consider the current logjam in the Rangers outfield (shown with their Bill James 2009 projections):

Josh Hamilton (.310/.384/.556)
David Murphy (.277/.335/.456)
Nelson Cruz (.278/.352/.535)
Marlon Byrd (.283/.357/.430)

Not to mention the possibilities at designated hitter:

Hank Blalock (.282/.346/.476)
Chris Davis (.302/.352/.599)
Max Ramirez (.308/.390/.548)

I don't think that anyone can make a case that bringing in a wild card like Jones is going to be an improvement over any of those guys. And that is exactly what is going to happen: when Jones is in the lineup, someone on that list is going to be sitting. Even if Jones were to return to form, he's no more valuable than anyone the Rangers already have (read: anyone he would be stealing playing time from).

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #2: He can be valuable off the bench

First of all, if the Rangers wanted a versatile outfielder who can pinch-hit and fill in when necessary, they shouldn't have released Frank Catalanotto. While Jones is certainly superior defensively, his strikeout rate makes him a recipe for disaster at pinch hitter. What team wants a regular pinch hitter to be someone who strikes out in excess of once every 5 trips to the plate?

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #3: He's being showcased for a trade down the line

If Jones does revert to his old form, it is certainly possible that he could be valuable to a contending team short on outfielders at the trade deadline. The problem? To convince teams that he has found his old form, he needs to receive significant playing time. Return to Possible Reason #1.

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #4: He's just an insurance policy

After entertaining some of these situations, this is the only one that makes sense and is the only possible reason that doesn't trigger a vomit reflex. If this scenario is true, it may be due to the Rangers' paranoia about another dismal start to the season in April (see: 2007 and 2008). For instance, if Nelson Cruz reverts to his Quadruple-A hitter form like he did in April 2007, then Jones slides into the 4th outfielder role.

He could also be an insurance policy against injury. Murphy, Cruz, and Byrd all spent time on the disabled list last season. While this idea certainly looks good on paper, Jones isn't just going to sit until someone slumps or someone gets hurt. He's likely to be worked into the lineup semi-regularly. Return to Possible Reason #1.

Saturday notes: Andruw Jones: fourth outfielder?

Well folks, it would seem reports of my departure from HWC have been greatly exaggerated. That's right folks, Jon is back - well, on Saturdays anyway. Maybe if John Paul lets me, we can even have select "Jon-out" weekends (Internet hi-five on the red-unis pun? Anyone?)

I'm glad to be back, even if it is on a limited basis - frankly I'm quite flattered that John Paul thought enough of my work last week to bring me back for a bench role. It could be a week-to-week deal for now (due to my own personal responsibilities) and I'm not sure as of yet what a typical Saturday post for me might entail (I'm used to more regular playing time) but I hope you, the reader, will bear with me while I make it up as I go.

Seeing as how I missed half the games this week (and it seems kind of senseless to do a solitary mid-week game report) for this morning I figured I'd take the easy way out and tackle this past weeks hotbutton issue: Andruw Jones. Wait, that is the easy way out, right?

I penned (okay, typed) my initial thoughts on the subject when the hoopla broke last weekend, and they really haven't changed a whole lot - I'm admittedly still in the camp that fears a "Sammy Sosa redux" could conceivably have playing time ramifications on just about everyone but Josh Hamilton in the Rangers 1B/DH/OF mix.

As we've learned this week (and perhaps already knew before) the driving force behind the Rangers sudden change of heart on Jones has apparently been hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo - with Ron Washington and more importantly Nolan Ryan also grabbing seats up front on the "save-Andruw" bus. Seeing the influential Ryan stamp his seal of approval on the project isn't exactly a soothing development for those of us who where wishing this Jones issue would simply go away on it's own - which it's not, as it was also announced this week that Jones status had been upped to possible cleanup hitter against left-handers. Jones started at cleanup on Tuesday going a respectable 2-6 (including a double) as the Mariners started lefty Jarrod Washburn.

Things got even more interesting last night as Washington started Jones at cleanup again - this time against right-hander Dave Bush (so much for the cleanup consideration being against lefties only, perhaps?). Jones went an anemic 0-5 with three strikeouts at the plate, including the dubious fate of striking out looking to end the game. Good news for anyone who's still hoping this whole thing will fail before it gets started - but that wasn't really the keynote of Jones night, at least not in my opinion. Of particular note was the position Jones started at - not DH or CF, but left field, a locale which Jones has not officially seen since 1997 (at least according to Baseball Reference).

It would appear Washington is getting increasingly creative in his attempts to fit Jones into the lineup and increase his versatility as spring training winds down - which can't be a bad thing if Jones does make the roster, and it could also ease the fears of Jones possibly stealing AB's from Chris Davis (whose bat has finally awoken this week). Which leads me at least, to wonder if the plan is evolving here, trending toward making Andruw the fourth outfielder - and what such a scenario might entail.

At first glance, getting Jones get work in left to look at him as a backup makes a certain measure of sense. David Murphy's .669 OPS against left-handed pitching last year left more than a little to be desired and there's no question Murphy could use - and probably should have - a right-handed platoon partner, a role Jones would seem to be an ideal fit for given his career numbers against left-handed pitching. The caveat however, is that the Rangers haven't expressed any interest in platooning Murphy despite the blatant splits. In fact it, if we're to believe TR Sullivan's claim back on March 20th that "There were never any doubts about Murphy or Hamilton" claiming outfield spots coming into the spring, it would seem an attempt to resurrect Jones as a part-time outfielder could actually be more likely to cut into the playing time of Nelson Cruz - and that's the last thing Cruz needs as he makes a final bid for a starting job with the Rangers this season. Is that reaching? Perhaps, but then again perhaps not. I personally find it extremely hard to believe that if Jones makes the team after all this fuss, he'll be religated strictly to a platoon/backup role whether he's DH'ing or playing the outfield. I think he's going to get as significant an amount of time as Wash can possibly afford him, to allow Rudy every opportunity to work with his latest pet project.

Then of course there's Marlon Byrd, who stands to be the real loser in this hypothetical scenario - if he's kept around. About a week and a half ago, it was Byrd who was pushing Jones off the roster, but the newfound zeal of the Jaramillo/Washington/Ryan triumvirate concerning the Jones experiment has seemingly reversed that line of thinking this week. If Andruw where to wind up ticketed with the backup role in the outfield, it would push Byrd (who put up a career-best 123 OPS+ in 2008) to the sporadic role of 5th outfielder - which doesn't really make much sense, because Byrd can do everything Andruw can and then some at this juncture in their careers. The only other option would be to find preseason trade for Byrd. Which, with the seeming urgency of the quest to try and find a spot for Andruw on the roster, could perhaps be the real endgame here - the Rangers could admittedly really use another bullpen arm, especially now in the wake of Dustin Nippert's injury and Brendan Donnelly's release, and Byrd could be an attractive option for a team looking to add some quality outfield depth.

Again, there's a catch however: if you can't find a deal for Byrd, or your deal falls through you could be left with two outfielders whom the manager needs to get part-time playing time in the outfield, leading to an even worse logjam.

To sum things up, putting Andruw in the outfield doesn't really eliminate or solve any of the possible playing time conflicts that will arise over the course of Rudy's quest to fix him - at best it transfers some of them to Murphy and Cruz instead of focusing them on Blalock and Davis. To me though, that rather seems like throwing a blanket over the white elephant in your living room. Bottom line is, I just don't see how we can undertake Jones as a reclamation project without it being a detriment - and ultimately I don't think Andruw will return to enough of his former glory to to make it worth our while in the end.

Monday: On Andruw Jones

It appears that Andruw Jones may find playing time easier than any of us imagined: Marlon Byrd and Brandon Boggs have been sidelined for the first intrasquad game because of injury. It seems like a good time to predict how Jones will play this year, whether he ends up with the Rangers or not . . .

For the past three years, Jones has plummetted noticeably in the following categories ('06 -- '07 -- '08):

AVG: .262 -- .222 -- .158

OBP: .363 -- .311 -- .256

SLG: .531 -- .413 -- .249

BABIP: .270 -- .248 -- .231

He has risen noticeably in the following category ('06 -- '07 -- '08):

Strikeout %: 22.5 -- 24.1 -- 36.4

My thoughts on the possibility of his resurgence:

**It's quite obvious at this point that he has nowhere to go but up.

**His BABIP has plummetted, but that's not terribly surprising since players in slumps typically don't hit the ball very hard. Given that league average is generally around .300, and his career BABIP is .282, look for his batting average to jump up a bit.

**It seems that when veteran players have an uncharacteristic year statistics-wise, they return to their usual career line the next year. Here is an example of both (not to imply that two examples is sufficient evidence to support this assumption, but instead just to briefly demonstrate a point; if anyone has any other examples of seasons like this, post them in the comments section and I will include them):

Gary Matthews in 2006 (uncharacteristically good):

2006: .313/.371/.495
2007: .252/.323/.419
Career: .259/.333/.412

Jermaine Dye in 2003 (uncharacteristically bad):

2003: .172/.261/.253
2004: .262/.329/.464
Career: .276/.338/.491

**Based on trends of this nature, here is my semi-scientific 2009 prediction for Andruw Jones, along with his 2008 stats:

2008: .158/.256/.249
2009: .249/.333/.468
Career: .259/.339/.489

He will have a decent season, and the national media will most likely declare his performance a "resurgence". It looks to be a 2007 Sammy Sosa type season, which was also declared by many in the national media to be a "resurgence".

I don't see how he can be part of our future plans, however, other than being trade bait. If he's of any worth this year it's likely that his asking price will greatly increase going into the offseason, and he won't be worth it anymore.

Around the Horn: Tuesday (Afternoon)

We already knew that Eddie Guardado was going to skip out on playing for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. Yesterday, TR Sullivan posted that Luis Mendoza will not play for Mexico in the Classic either. Too bad for Mexico, they could have used someone who posted an 8.67 ERA and a 3-8 record last year in the majors. Also too bad for Team USA.

Hank Blalock and Marlon Byrd will be introduced to new roles: Blalock as the DH, Byrd as the self proclaimed "I don't know -- fifth outfielder?". Baseball Time in Arlington revisits exercising Blalock's club option, and TR Sullivan thinks that Byrd's knee surgery may be more of an issue than previously let on. Kason Gabbard will also try out new digs in the bullpen, as the starting rotation is already set to be Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, McCarthy, Harrison. I imagine we will have Jason Jennings sighting in the rotation at the first hint of the need for a sixth starter to step in.

Michael Young is sure that "Andruw is going to have a monster year." To be honest, I'm not going to be impressed with anything less.

Frankie Francisco is heading into camp as the top choice the closer's role, from which he will receive considerable competition from CJ Wilson. I like this move, Francisco was dominant when took on that role last year. I was never comfortable with Wilson as the closer anyways; he is much more powerful as a setup/LOOGY type.

Spring Training Updates: TR Sullivan, Jeff Wilson

Last, but not least, one of the highlights of my day yesterday was reading Jamey Newberg's article on why the Rangers are going to be better in 2009. I have to admit that I wasn't too terribly optimistic about our chances for this season, but this article changed my mind.

Around the Horn: Friday (Evening)

I went to the Fort Worth Star Telegram's website today, and was greeted by this headline: "After bad winter, Texas Rangers ready to report to Spring Training." At first I disagreed. The Sheets deal fell through, sure, and there haven't been many thrills, but I wouldn't call it bad. Then I realized (thanks to Joe Siegler of rangerfans.com) that the Rangers have not signed a single free agent to a major league contract this offseason. Needless to say, I conceded my mental argument to the Star Telegram.

Breaking news from TR Sullivan: "Staying healthy is key to Texas staff." All kidding aside, he does point out the 14 different Rangers pitchers went on the DL in 2008 (not to mention cases like Hurley and Benoit).

Josh Hamilton thinks the Rangers can win 90 games. Good to hear that someone is more optimistic than Baseball Prospectus.

Hamilton also could "care less" about what position he plays. An interesting, but understandingly different, contrast to the Michael Young fiasco. Good to hear that he's not threatened or miffed by the Andruw Jones signing. Then again, who would be threatened by a guy who hit .158 and .222 the last two years?

The Rangers have released their Spring Training broadcast schedule. 5 games are going to be televised, along with 18 on the radio. An additional 8 will be broadcast online by MLB Gameday Audio.

Jeff Wilson has a report from Day One and Day Two of Spring Training.

FoxSports.com reports that Ben Sheets is shooting to be back by August. Of particular interest is this quote by Sheets:

"I think (the Rangers) have a good team. I was excited by the prospect of being near home," said Sheets, who is a native of Baton Rouge, La., and owns a home in Dallas . . . I can't say I ever felt great about doing that deal. But I felt for both sides it might have worked. They didn't feel the risk was worth it. They've got a right to feel that way. I wasn't mad either way."

He goes on to add:

"I'd be a good fit for teams making a run at it."

It will be interesting to see whether the Rangers "make a run" at Sheets upon his return, whether or not they are "making a run" at a playoff spot. I would think that Sheets pitching for the Rangers for two months would be a nice trial period for Sheets in Texas and allow him to get accustomed to the Ballpark and the team before next season.

13 days until Spring Training!

Around the Horn: Monday (Night)

Most of the news relating to our Texas Rangers today is about a former shortstop (and I'm not talking about Michael Young). I'm going to write about that soon, but until then there is news over players actually playing for the Rangers now (albeit not much):

TR Sullivan runs down the Spring competition. It's business as usual most of the way around the diamond, with notable competitions at catcher with Saltalamacchia and Teagarden and in the outfield with the whole Andruw Jones enigma.

Baseball Prospectus posted their PECOTA-based standings projections for 2009. They are not too kind to the Rangers, who are predicted to post an uninspiring 72-90. I don't think the Rangers were projected to win as many as 79 games last year, so that may be slightly encouraging.

Yahoo! Sports also wrote their 2009 scouting report about the Rangers, noting that the offense may be as much of a problem as the pitching . . .

And that is about it for today. Spring training starts in 17 days!

Around the Horn: Super Bowl Sunday

Anthony Andro at the Star-Telegram takes an interesting look at every farm system that Baseball America has ranked #1. Fortunately for the Rangers, he notes that all but three of the corresponding big league teams have made the playoffs in subsequent years. The article includes a breakdown of each of the playoff bound teams and the contributions of their respective farm systems. Of particular interest to me were his notes on the Atlanta Braves 1990s dynasty, the Rangers of the late 1990s, and last year's upstart Tampa Bay Rays.

In the same paper, Jim Reeves talks about Nolan Ryan's desire to move Josh Hamilton to right field. Ryan claims that Hamilton is "too big" to be a centerfielder, and that Cruz or Byrd will likely replace him in center. First of all, I don't think is a bad idea given Hamilton's health and conditioning concerns. But the fact that Hamilton is "too big" and Nelson Cruz is just right confuses me (I tried to find a reliable source for their heights and weights, but Baseball Reference and Bill James have conflicting reports). Personally, if its between Hamilton and Cruz in center, I would go with Hamilton. If Hamilton does indeed go to right, I hope Byrd gets the nod there over Cruz (at least defensively).

Another issue this raises is what to do about Cruz. His cannon of an arm is better utilized in center or in right. With Hamilton allegedly moving, would Cruz be more likely to play in left, in center, or in a 4th outfielder role?

In non-Rangers news, there is talk that the Braves may bring back the recently released Andruw Jones, who is available for the $400,000 minimum.

Also, the Brewers have signed Trevor Hoffman, and the Red Sox have signed Kevin Youkilis to a long term deal.