The AL West: previewing the competition

With the calendar now down to mere couple of days before the gates open at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, I thought it might be prudent to put together a last-minute overview of the Rangers competition in the AL West as we prepare to dive into the baseball season. Whether or not you believe the Rangers have a shot at the postseason this year on paper (which, even to the most optimistic of us seems like a long shot) it's always a good idea to know your enemies - so today I'll attempt to give you the lowdown on our three division rivals (since I'm betting you don't really need me to preview the Rangers for you, right?)

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

First up we have the AL West's version of Goliath for the past few seasons, the Angels. Despite having the most confusing organizational name in baseball, they've won the division title four out of the past five seasons. Historically, they've accomplished this with a combination of solid pitching and defense, but last year they where aided by a considerable amount of luck as well as they outperformed their Pythagorean record by 12 games. Make no mistake about it: they're still currently the best team in the division, but thanks to injuries and aging star players, the talent edge they've enjoyed over the rest of the division the past few seasons seems to be closing considerably.

Ace John Lackey and 2008 breakout Ervin Santana have both been shelved with elbow problems to start the season, Lackey being out till at least late April and Santana not expected back until May. The Angels do have the consolation of Kelvim Escobar apparently impressing in his journey toward returning from shoulder surgery, but he's still not due back until late April/early May either. That leaves the Angels with a starting rotation of Joe Saunders (whose low strikeout rates, abnormally low BABIP and 4.36 FIP in 2008 tab him as a prime candidate for regression this year), the solid-but-mediocre Jered Weaver, swingman Dustin Moseley and rookie Nick Adenhart, who are both coming of lackluster 2008 seasons, and 29 year-old minor league journeyman Shane Loux. As hard as is may be to believe, the Angels will not be starting the season with the best rotation in the AL West.

Offensively, not a whole lot has changed for the Halos - their losing the Mark Teixeira bidding war over the winter makes Vlad Guerrero their only true power threat once again, and the extra birthday candle Vlad recently picked up doesn't exactly do anything to help the fact that his slugging percentage has been dropping (albeit marginally) for 5 years running. That leaves the Angels stuck relying once again on their famous speed/situational hitting offense - which they are taking steps to augment by emphasizing a more disciplined approach for their hitters this spring, as well as adding on-base machine Bobby Abreu to the lineup as a consolation prize for the loss of Teixeira. A couple of offensive wildcards could be first baseman Kendry Morales, who is getting a shot at first base after putting up some big numbers in the minors over the past four seasons, and the organizations former #1 prospect Brandon Wood, who starts the season in the minors. At 25, Morales is closer to being the Angels version of a Nelson Cruz than a true prospect, but Wood is still only 23 and could provide the Angels with a much needed young power bat at some point this season - if he's not the second coming of Dallas McPhereson that he's appeared to be in his first two major league stints, that is.

Summary: Their situational offense has gotten them by in the past, and has even looked good compared to the stagnant lineups the A's and Mariners have thrown out there in the past couple seasons. With the A's looking to score a lot more runs and both the Mariners and Rangers making leaps in defensive aptitude their lack of punch could become more apparent this year, but the Angels should still pull away from the pack once again if Lackey, Santana and Escobar all come back by as scheduled by May. Even if one of the three suffers a setback, just having the other two fully healthy will likely still push their rotation back ahead of the others in the AL West. However, if both of Lackey and Santana either suffer setbacks or don't prove fully healthy and effective, there's a definite chance things could get interesting, especially if the their April hodgepodge of a rotation gives them a slow start. What's likely to be biggest thing to watch about the Angels this year however, is exactly how much they start showing their age - mainly in the outfield, where a big chunk of their payroll is tied up.

The Oakland Athletics

Is Billy Beane the best General Manager in baseball history? I honestly don't know if he is or not, but he's certainly no slouch at the job. The A's completely revamped their offense over the offseason, bringing in big gun Matt Holliday from the Rockies to headline and snapping up cheap-but-solid placeholders Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera, along with Nomar Garciaparra to back up the perpetually injured Eric Chavez at third.

Those moves should do wonders to turn around an offense that finished dead last in the AL in runs scored last year - but it's not going to help the A's green pitching staff, which starts the season missing both it's #1 starter and closer. Justin Duchscherer (who enjoyed the best season of his career in his first full-time stint in the starting rotation in 2008) is on the shelf for about 6 weeks to start 2009 after arthoscopic surgery on his elbow, and apparently could wind up back in the bullpen once he returns. The fireballing closer Devine, who missed 2 months last year with elbow problems is due to pay the dreaded visit to Dr. James Andrews after his elbow flared up again this spring.

That leaves the closing job (for now) entirely in the hands of Brad Zeigler, whose 3.72 FIP and unsustainable 92.3 LOB rate suggest that he won't repeat 2008's shiny 1.06 ERA this year. The rotation, meanwhile becomes comprised almost exclusively of rookies and/or second-year players. Dallas Braden is the rotations default "veteran" (and the opening day starter) as he's the only member of the A's initial 5 this season to have started 10 or more games in each of the past two seasons. It'll be up to he and fellow southpaw Dana Eveland to provide stability at the front of the rotation for the first month or so, as Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill (the A's equivalent of Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland) have been rushed straight from AA into the big leagues this year and Sean Gallagher has been bounced from the rotation in favor of Josh Outman.

Summary: Holliday and Giambi should combine with Jack Cust to form a pretty solid heart of the order, something the A's haven't had in awhile. The rest of the offense still seems kinda "meh" to me (Ryan Sweeny and Kurt Suzuki, their other key hitters aren't bad, but they aren't anything special either) but just having something at it's core is going to go a long way for the A's run production compared to last year. The young pitching staff, namely Anderson and Cahill will no doubt show flashes of brilliance, but they're going to take the lumps that come with jumping straight from AA to the majors as well. Should Devine wind up out for a significant amount of time, it takes the bullpen down a peg from pretty good to just solid on paper - which I suppose is why they're considering moving Duchscherer back there when he comes back. All that said, the A's still probably have the best chance of the three trailers (at least in my opinion) at making a run at the Angels this year.

The Seattle Mariners

Remember the old saying "things are always darkest before the dawn"? Well, that's what Mariner fans are hoping 2008 was. The M's needed to make some big changes after they went from being touted as a dark horse to the punch line of the division in the course of one not-so-short 101 loss season, and that's exactly what they did this offseason. First and foremost they named Jack Zduriencik as the heir to the disgraced Bill Bavasi's General Manager throne. Zduriencik promptly set about rebuilding the coaching staff, installing former Ranger third base coach Don Wakamatsu in the managers position and luring Rick Adair away from his job as minor league coordinator here in Texas to take residence as Seattle's new pitching coach.

From there the M's set about fortifying their miserable on-field product, with defense being the obvious new priority. At the cost of closer JJ Putz and mid-reliever Sean Green, they acquired OF's Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez (among others, including pitcher Aaron Heilman) in a three-way deal with the Mets and Indians in December. While it might be a bit light on offensive production, the resulting outfield of Chavez in left, Gutierrez in center and Ichirio Suzuki in right arguably became the best defensive alignment in the majors, a refreshing change for a team that has had to put up with Raul Ibanez's "pride in his defense" in left the past five years (as the inside joke in Seattle goes).

They went on to flip Heilman to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olsen in January, part of a number of less notable acquisitions meant to bolster the team (others included David Aardsma, Russel Branyan, Mike Sweeny and Chad Cordero) before signing former Mariner great Ken Griffey Jr. to a 1 year deal that should give them both a decent DH option for the time being and more importantly a ticket-selling point as the Mariners begin what should be a rebuilding year.

Offensively, the Mariners are effectively trading Ibanez's 124 OPS+ in the lineup for more average production from Griffey and Branyan at DH and first base, two positions they got almost zero production from in 2008. It would seem Mike Sweeny will likely platoon with both against left-handers, so this probably qualifies as an overall improvement, however marginal it may be. Ichiro will be missing the first week of the season with a bleeding ulcer, but that might not be as big a deal as it might've been in the past since he appears to be on the delcine (career low 102 OPS+ last year). In this outsider's opinion, what the Mariners really need to do this year is find a place in the lineup for Jeff Clement (Seattle's Max Ramirez), whether it's behind the plate, at first base or DH. As dismal as their offense is it seems like it would help them greatly both now and going forward if they could get his highly touted bat going in the majors, especially considering Adrian Beltre, the only thing close to an impact bat they have, is due to walk via free agency at the end of the season.

The key for any kind of success for the Mariners this year however will be pitching and run prevention. The revamped outfield should make a difference in the spacious Safeco Field for young ace Felix Hernandez and recovering Erik Bedard. Brendan Morrow moving to the bullpen, apparently for good this time, is a blow to the Seattle rotation as it places more reliance on the mediocre (at best) Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn and pushes Ryan Rowland-Smith up into the rotation, but the tradeoff is it does stabilize their previously-iffy closer situation. Despite the loss of Morrow, a healthy Bedard and a productive Felix probably gives the Mariners the best rotation in the AL West until the Angels big three come back - which says more about the dismal quality of AL West rotations than it does the quality of the Mariners starting 5.

Summary: The Mariners will be bad, but not as bad as last year. They're hoping their improved defense will help them steal some wins behind Bedard and Felix, which it should - but that'll have to do until they find some offense again.

Overall thoughts on the division: Well, to state the fairly obvious, this is a baaaad division. It might be the worst in baseball this year. Which is probably why the Angels are going to simply pull away again once their best starters make it back. On the other hand, it's also why it's conceivable that someone could back into a Division title with nothing more than 82-85 wins if lady luck suddenly turns it's back on the Angels.

The Rangers and A's are all of a sudden looking quite similar - Oakland's got a definite edge in pitching right now, namely the bullpen, while the Rangers are going to score more runs, but both teams are stuck in the same boat of trying to ride their offense until their young pitching is up to the challenge of carrying them past the Angels in 2010 and beyond. As a result both teams could be surprisingly average or disappointingly bad as they'll most likely engage in another dogfight of mediocrity for second again this year.

The Mariners are my bet to finish in the cellar, as I just don't think they've got the offense to keep up with the rest of the division, but they're not going to be as far behind the A's and Rangers as they where last year, either - if one of Oakland or Texas falters the difference between third and last probably won't be much.

PS - my apologies for having this up so late. It was supposed to have been up by this morning (Saturday) but it turned out to be a much bigger project than I'd expected.