Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Tuesday: The Real Kevin Millwood? Don't be so sure . . .

It's no secret that Kevin Millwood is off to quite an impressive start this season:

Start #1: 7IP 1ER 5K
Start #2: 7IP 0ER 6K
Start #3: 9 IP 2ER 3K (complete game)
Totals: 23IP 3ER 14K

His season ERA after these three starts is 1.17.

It got me thinking, "When was the last time Millwood pitched this well to start off a season?" The answer was more recent that I realized: it was last year. Look at his first three starts from 2008:

Start #1: 6IP 0ER 4K
Start #2: 8IP 2ER 5K (complete game)
Start #3: 7IP 1ER 2K
Totals: 21IP 3ER 11K

His season ERA after these three starts was 1.29.

We all know what happened after those three starts, however:

April 2008: 3.86 ERA
May 2008: 7.45 ERA
June 2008: 6.10 ERA
July 2008: 6.56 ERA
August 2008: 2.76 ERA
September 2008: 6.10 ERA

Additionally, his BABIP so far in 2009 is .204, way below the league average of .300. Considering his BABIP over the last two seasons has been .348 and .366, he's either "due" for a streak like this, or it is going to return to the .300 mark quite soon.

Would I love it if Millwood kept on pitching like this? Of course. Is there a good chance that he will? No. Here's to hoping he can.

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