Thursday: Andruw Jones and the Rangers of the Lost Spark

I had another post planned for today, but in light of some recent roster moves I thought this might be more fun. Please excuse the pun in the title, I couldn't help myself.

Roster Move in Question: Keeping Andruw Jones

For those interested, all of us here at HWC have already written about some aspect of this situation:

John Paul: On Andruw Jones
Jon: Andruw Jones, Fourth Outfielder?
Thomas: The Departed

Additionally, Fan Graphs has a nice breakdown of the Ranger outfield which focuses on Jones and Murphy.

For now, let's examine why the Rangers could have done this:

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #1: If he reverts to form, he will be a valuable addition to the team

In my previous article here at HWC, I predicted that Jones (with regular playing time) will post a .249/.333/.468 line this year. Not too shabby, I suppose, until you consider the current logjam in the Rangers outfield (shown with their Bill James 2009 projections):

Josh Hamilton (.310/.384/.556)
David Murphy (.277/.335/.456)
Nelson Cruz (.278/.352/.535)
Marlon Byrd (.283/.357/.430)

Not to mention the possibilities at designated hitter:

Hank Blalock (.282/.346/.476)
Chris Davis (.302/.352/.599)
Max Ramirez (.308/.390/.548)

I don't think that anyone can make a case that bringing in a wild card like Jones is going to be an improvement over any of those guys. And that is exactly what is going to happen: when Jones is in the lineup, someone on that list is going to be sitting. Even if Jones were to return to form, he's no more valuable than anyone the Rangers already have (read: anyone he would be stealing playing time from).

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #2: He can be valuable off the bench

First of all, if the Rangers wanted a versatile outfielder who can pinch-hit and fill in when necessary, they shouldn't have released Frank Catalanotto. While Jones is certainly superior defensively, his strikeout rate makes him a recipe for disaster at pinch hitter. What team wants a regular pinch hitter to be someone who strikes out in excess of once every 5 trips to the plate?

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #3: He's being showcased for a trade down the line

If Jones does revert to his old form, it is certainly possible that he could be valuable to a contending team short on outfielders at the trade deadline. The problem? To convince teams that he has found his old form, he needs to receive significant playing time. Return to Possible Reason #1.

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #4: He's just an insurance policy

After entertaining some of these situations, this is the only one that makes sense and is the only possible reason that doesn't trigger a vomit reflex. If this scenario is true, it may be due to the Rangers' paranoia about another dismal start to the season in April (see: 2007 and 2008). For instance, if Nelson Cruz reverts to his Quadruple-A hitter form like he did in April 2007, then Jones slides into the 4th outfielder role.

He could also be an insurance policy against injury. Murphy, Cruz, and Byrd all spent time on the disabled list last season. While this idea certainly looks good on paper, Jones isn't just going to sit until someone slumps or someone gets hurt. He's likely to be worked into the lineup semi-regularly. Return to Possible Reason #1.