You may remember from sometime in March that Vandergriff Honda promised free cars to certain customers if the Rangers start the season 4-0 and if the Yankees start the season 0-4.
I previously commented on the exact probability of that occurence here at HWC using BP's PECOTA season projections. As you might expect, the probability was extremely low, at .0008 (.08%).
As I'm sure Vandergriff Honda has noticed, the Rangers have started the season 2-0 and the Yankees have started the season 0-2 -- the event is still very possible, and much more likely, although not likely in itself (for an explanation of the method used, see my previous post):
P(Rangers start 4-0, given that they start 2-0)=.196047
P(Yankees start 0-4, given that they start 0-2)=.151967
Thus,
P(Rangers start 4-0, given that they start 0-2 AND Yankees start 0-4, given that they start 0-2)=.196047*.151967=.02979
The probability that Vandergriff Honda will give away free vehicles is now .02, a 2% chance. I don't think anyone at the dealership is contemplating paying someone to throw a game . . . . yet.
UPDATE: at 3:35 pm, the Yankees were beating the Orioles 9-2 in the top of the ninth . . . . . I think it's safe to say that within the hour, this probability will change to 0. It was fun while it lasted, though.
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