I had another post planned for today, but in light of some recent roster moves I thought this might be more fun. Please excuse the pun in the title, I couldn't help myself.
Roster Move in Question: Keeping Andruw Jones
For those interested, all of us here at HWC have already written about some aspect of this situation:
John Paul: On Andruw Jones
Jon: Andruw Jones, Fourth Outfielder?
Thomas: The Departed
Additionally, Fan Graphs has a nice breakdown of the Ranger outfield which focuses on Jones and Murphy.
For now, let's examine why the Rangers could have done this:
Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #1: If he reverts to form, he will be a valuable addition to the team
In my previous article here at HWC, I predicted that Jones (with regular playing time) will post a .249/.333/.468 line this year. Not too shabby, I suppose, until you consider the current logjam in the Rangers outfield (shown with their Bill James 2009 projections):
Josh Hamilton (.310/.384/.556)
David Murphy (.277/.335/.456)
Nelson Cruz (.278/.352/.535)
Marlon Byrd (.283/.357/.430)
Not to mention the possibilities at designated hitter:
Hank Blalock (.282/.346/.476)
Chris Davis (.302/.352/.599)
Max Ramirez (.308/.390/.548)
I don't think that anyone can make a case that bringing in a wild card like Jones is going to be an improvement over any of those guys. And that is exactly what is going to happen: when Jones is in the lineup, someone on that list is going to be sitting. Even if Jones were to return to form, he's no more valuable than anyone the Rangers already have (read: anyone he would be stealing playing time from).
Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #2: He can be valuable off the bench
First of all, if the Rangers wanted a versatile outfielder who can pinch-hit and fill in when necessary, they shouldn't have released Frank Catalanotto. While Jones is certainly superior defensively, his strikeout rate makes him a recipe for disaster at pinch hitter. What team wants a regular pinch hitter to be someone who strikes out in excess of once every 5 trips to the plate?
Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #3: He's being showcased for a trade down the line
If Jones does revert to his old form, it is certainly possible that he could be valuable to a contending team short on outfielders at the trade deadline. The problem? To convince teams that he has found his old form, he needs to receive significant playing time. Return to Possible Reason #1.
Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #4: He's just an insurance policy
After entertaining some of these situations, this is the only one that makes sense and is the only possible reason that doesn't trigger a vomit reflex. If this scenario is true, it may be due to the Rangers' paranoia about another dismal start to the season in April (see: 2007 and 2008). For instance, if Nelson Cruz reverts to his Quadruple-A hitter form like he did in April 2007, then Jones slides into the 4th outfielder role.
He could also be an insurance policy against injury. Murphy, Cruz, and Byrd all spent time on the disabled list last season. While this idea certainly looks good on paper, Jones isn't just going to sit until someone slumps or someone gets hurt. He's likely to be worked into the lineup semi-regularly. Return to Possible Reason #1.
Showing posts with label David Murphy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Murphy. Show all posts
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Around the Horn: Wednesday (Night)
I'm finding it harder and harder to write in the mornings and mid-afternoons, so I may end up writing most of my daily posts at night. This will give me the chance to comment on news that was published during the day that I normally might overlook.
Mike Hindman takes an interesting look at Marlon Byrd and David Murphy's numbers in an attempt to find the more productive outfielder. While it's clear Byrd is superior, Murphy's advantage lies in the fact that he is under team control for several more years.
Richard Durrett responds to the predictions Baseball Prospectus made for the Rangers, by setting the over/under at 79. BP set the Rangers to win 73, he guesses 78. Better, but still underwhelming.
The Angels steal Bobby Abreu for 1 year, $5 million (read Jamey Newberg's take here). What a deal. Abreu has what Bill James called the traditional "old player skills": patience at the plate, and power. He won't replace Teixeira, but he should complement (and provide an interesting contrast) to free-swinging Vlad Guererro. But hey, we just plucked an outfielder out of the bargain bin who has hit around the Mendoza line two years for just $350,000 . . . that's the same, right?
In other news, former Rangers Ben Broussard and Jamey Wright signed with the White Sox and Royals, respectively. Also, Ben Broussard is a musician and has his own website. Interesting.
Former Rangers President Tom Schieffer is thinking about running for Governor of Texas, as a democrat (don't tell you know who). Did you know that the governor's seat in Texas has been Republican for 14 straight years?
Spring Training in just 15 days!
Mike Hindman takes an interesting look at Marlon Byrd and David Murphy's numbers in an attempt to find the more productive outfielder. While it's clear Byrd is superior, Murphy's advantage lies in the fact that he is under team control for several more years.
Richard Durrett responds to the predictions Baseball Prospectus made for the Rangers, by setting the over/under at 79. BP set the Rangers to win 73, he guesses 78. Better, but still underwhelming.
The Angels steal Bobby Abreu for 1 year, $5 million (read Jamey Newberg's take here). What a deal. Abreu has what Bill James called the traditional "old player skills": patience at the plate, and power. He won't replace Teixeira, but he should complement (and provide an interesting contrast) to free-swinging Vlad Guererro. But hey, we just plucked an outfielder out of the bargain bin who has hit around the Mendoza line two years for just $350,000 . . . that's the same, right?
In other news, former Rangers Ben Broussard and Jamey Wright signed with the White Sox and Royals, respectively. Also, Ben Broussard is a musician and has his own website. Interesting.
Former Rangers President Tom Schieffer is thinking about running for Governor of Texas, as a democrat (don't tell you know who). Did you know that the governor's seat in Texas has been Republican for 14 straight years?
Spring Training in just 15 days!
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Around the Horn: Weekend Edition
It would be nice if the biggest Rangers news of the weekend involved a player actually on the roster . . . but I will save that for a different post.
TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers have signed Andruw Jones. I'm questioning the motives of the Rangers a little bit here. Jones used to be a fine defensive centerfielder, and a Sammy Sosa-like power hitter. With the current logjam the Rangers have in the outfield with Murphy, Hamilton, Byrd, Cruz, Boggs, Catalanotto, and eventually Borbon, it is difficult to see how adding an aging centerfielder on a quest to resurrrect his career is going to help the Rangers. It seems even more detrimental when considering who he is going to be stealing at-bats from. Murphy? Cruz? Boggs? Possibly Borbon? The Rangers will benefit much more from any of these players taking the field more often than Jones. It is a low risk financially, but given the Rangers interest in acquiring a heavy right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup, I think that a decent performance by Jones will inevitably mark the end of the road for Blalock or Murphy.
Moving on to signings that have been completed, the Rangers signed veteran reliever Brendan Donnelly to a minor league contract. If, like me, you weren't terribly familiar with Donnelly before this move, you can find his stats here. I have to say that I was impressed with Donnelly's numbers: a career ERA of 3.12 and only one season over 3.94 (last season was a bit disastrous for him at 8.56, which helps explain why he is still available). Reading some of the comments posted on different websites, some reactions are of the sort: "Why do we keep signing all of these washed-up has-beens?" I have several responses to this:
1) They are cheap.
2) They are low risk.
3) They are pretty much all that is available.
4) They provide an injury insurance policy (see: Joaquin Benoit, Eric Hurley).
5) The Rangers don't want to rush any of the young arms in the minors before they are ready.
6) As Adam Morris of LoneStarBall stated in this post, "[The] interesting thing about bullpens is that most of the ones that end up doing really well have some guys pop up out of nowhere. Really, that's what makes bullpens so unique...you can often times dig up a guy as an NRI or as a fringe prospect who can have some things click in the pen and become a quality reliever."
The most important issue here, I think, is that the Rangers are settting their sights on 2010. The signing of guys like Donnelly, Derrick Turnbow, and Eddie Guardado ensures that guys like Neftali Feliz are not Edinson Volquez-ed and rushed up here too quickly. I think signing guys like Guardado, Turnbow, and Donnelly are different than say, Jamey Wright, because Wright was never actually all that good, ever. These guys have a number of productive seasons under their belt. And, you never know, they just may have some gas left in the tank.
Also, Jason Parks of Baseball Time in Arlington posted an in-depth scouting report on Julio Borbon. For those who are not terribly familiar with scouting or with Borbon, this is a good read.
TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers have signed Andruw Jones. I'm questioning the motives of the Rangers a little bit here. Jones used to be a fine defensive centerfielder, and a Sammy Sosa-like power hitter. With the current logjam the Rangers have in the outfield with Murphy, Hamilton, Byrd, Cruz, Boggs, Catalanotto, and eventually Borbon, it is difficult to see how adding an aging centerfielder on a quest to resurrrect his career is going to help the Rangers. It seems even more detrimental when considering who he is going to be stealing at-bats from. Murphy? Cruz? Boggs? Possibly Borbon? The Rangers will benefit much more from any of these players taking the field more often than Jones. It is a low risk financially, but given the Rangers interest in acquiring a heavy right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup, I think that a decent performance by Jones will inevitably mark the end of the road for Blalock or Murphy.
Moving on to signings that have been completed, the Rangers signed veteran reliever Brendan Donnelly to a minor league contract. If, like me, you weren't terribly familiar with Donnelly before this move, you can find his stats here. I have to say that I was impressed with Donnelly's numbers: a career ERA of 3.12 and only one season over 3.94 (last season was a bit disastrous for him at 8.56, which helps explain why he is still available). Reading some of the comments posted on different websites, some reactions are of the sort: "Why do we keep signing all of these washed-up has-beens?" I have several responses to this:
1) They are cheap.
2) They are low risk.
3) They are pretty much all that is available.
4) They provide an injury insurance policy (see: Joaquin Benoit, Eric Hurley).
5) The Rangers don't want to rush any of the young arms in the minors before they are ready.
6) As Adam Morris of LoneStarBall stated in this post, "[The] interesting thing about bullpens is that most of the ones that end up doing really well have some guys pop up out of nowhere. Really, that's what makes bullpens so unique...you can often times dig up a guy as an NRI or as a fringe prospect who can have some things click in the pen and become a quality reliever."
The most important issue here, I think, is that the Rangers are settting their sights on 2010. The signing of guys like Donnelly, Derrick Turnbow, and Eddie Guardado ensures that guys like Neftali Feliz are not Edinson Volquez-ed and rushed up here too quickly. I think signing guys like Guardado, Turnbow, and Donnelly are different than say, Jamey Wright, because Wright was never actually all that good, ever. These guys have a number of productive seasons under their belt. And, you never know, they just may have some gas left in the tank.
Also, Jason Parks of Baseball Time in Arlington posted an in-depth scouting report on Julio Borbon. For those who are not terribly familiar with scouting or with Borbon, this is a good read.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Around the Horn: Monday
What a game last night. A 100 yard pick-six at the end of the first half, Larry Fitzgerald watching himself score on the JumboTron, the holding call in the endzone for a safety after Rothlisberger seemingly navigated his team out of danger, Santonio Holmes letting the game winning pass slip through his hands and then making a remarkable touchdown catch on the very next play to put the Steelers up for good.
And if this was a football blog, I would write more about this. Instead, we have more riveting offseason Rangers talk:
Jim Reeves writes about Nolan Ryan's talk of moving Josh Hamilton to right field, noting that it is probably the right move. Later in the article Ryan discussed his love for David Murphy, and comments that:
"David Murphy you’ve got to keep on your ballclub and you have to get him in the lineup every chance you get," Ryan said. "If you watch him, and he has four at-bats in a night, in three of the four he’ll be 3-2 [in the count].
First off, don't get me wrong. I like Murphy. He's a scrappy, gritty outfielder reminiscent of Rusty Greer. But if what Ryan says were true, wouldn't Murphy's OBP have been higher than .321 last season? He only walked 31 times in 454 plate appearances. Baseball-Reference does not have his 2008 pitches per plate appearance posted yet, but if I had to wager I would imagine the data does not support Ryan's claim. [If you can find his 2008 PPA, post it in the comments section with a link and I will update the post.]
In conclusion, Murphy is gritty (which is perhaps why Ryan has taken such a liking to him), but I sure wish he would grind out a few more walks and OBP points.
Over at Baseball Time in Arlington, Joey Matschulat busts out some defensive data supporting Hamilton's alleged move to right field.
On his blog, TR Sullivan breaks down the Rangers bullpen options. He includes possibilities for each bullpen role as well as a list of free agents that may (or may not be) able to help.
And if this was a football blog, I would write more about this. Instead, we have more riveting offseason Rangers talk:
Jim Reeves writes about Nolan Ryan's talk of moving Josh Hamilton to right field, noting that it is probably the right move. Later in the article Ryan discussed his love for David Murphy, and comments that:
"David Murphy you’ve got to keep on your ballclub and you have to get him in the lineup every chance you get," Ryan said. "If you watch him, and he has four at-bats in a night, in three of the four he’ll be 3-2 [in the count].
First off, don't get me wrong. I like Murphy. He's a scrappy, gritty outfielder reminiscent of Rusty Greer. But if what Ryan says were true, wouldn't Murphy's OBP have been higher than .321 last season? He only walked 31 times in 454 plate appearances. Baseball-Reference does not have his 2008 pitches per plate appearance posted yet, but if I had to wager I would imagine the data does not support Ryan's claim. [If you can find his 2008 PPA, post it in the comments section with a link and I will update the post.]
In conclusion, Murphy is gritty (which is perhaps why Ryan has taken such a liking to him), but I sure wish he would grind out a few more walks and OBP points.
Over at Baseball Time in Arlington, Joey Matschulat busts out some defensive data supporting Hamilton's alleged move to right field.
On his blog, TR Sullivan breaks down the Rangers bullpen options. He includes possibilities for each bullpen role as well as a list of free agents that may (or may not be) able to help.
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