Monday: On Andruw Jones

It appears that Andruw Jones may find playing time easier than any of us imagined: Marlon Byrd and Brandon Boggs have been sidelined for the first intrasquad game because of injury. It seems like a good time to predict how Jones will play this year, whether he ends up with the Rangers or not . . .

For the past three years, Jones has plummetted noticeably in the following categories ('06 -- '07 -- '08):

AVG: .262 -- .222 -- .158

OBP: .363 -- .311 -- .256

SLG: .531 -- .413 -- .249

BABIP: .270 -- .248 -- .231

He has risen noticeably in the following category ('06 -- '07 -- '08):

Strikeout %: 22.5 -- 24.1 -- 36.4

My thoughts on the possibility of his resurgence:

**It's quite obvious at this point that he has nowhere to go but up.

**His BABIP has plummetted, but that's not terribly surprising since players in slumps typically don't hit the ball very hard. Given that league average is generally around .300, and his career BABIP is .282, look for his batting average to jump up a bit.

**It seems that when veteran players have an uncharacteristic year statistics-wise, they return to their usual career line the next year. Here is an example of both (not to imply that two examples is sufficient evidence to support this assumption, but instead just to briefly demonstrate a point; if anyone has any other examples of seasons like this, post them in the comments section and I will include them):

Gary Matthews in 2006 (uncharacteristically good):

2006: .313/.371/.495
2007: .252/.323/.419
Career: .259/.333/.412

Jermaine Dye in 2003 (uncharacteristically bad):

2003: .172/.261/.253
2004: .262/.329/.464
Career: .276/.338/.491

**Based on trends of this nature, here is my semi-scientific 2009 prediction for Andruw Jones, along with his 2008 stats:

2008: .158/.256/.249
2009: .249/.333/.468
Career: .259/.339/.489

He will have a decent season, and the national media will most likely declare his performance a "resurgence". It looks to be a 2007 Sammy Sosa type season, which was also declared by many in the national media to be a "resurgence".

I don't see how he can be part of our future plans, however, other than being trade bait. If he's of any worth this year it's likely that his asking price will greatly increase going into the offseason, and he won't be worth it anymore.