Thursday: Deep Thoughts . . . .

I don't really have a theme in mind for today's post. What I've mostly done is taken a few things that I've been thinking about this week and posted them all in one article.

1) According to Bill James Online, Ian Kinsler is the hottest hitter in baseball right now with a temperature of 104 degrees (for an explanation of temperatures, go here). Certainly not much of a surprise given his offensive play as of late, but to see that (according to this "temperature" system) he is the hottest hitter in the game, that's pretty cool. Following Kinsler are Victor Martinez, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, and Kevin Youkilis.

2) Jamey Newberg, in one of his patented newsletters, remarked about Kinsler in his recap of the Rangers 5-4 win over the Blue Jays: the game included "Ian Kinsler’s first opposite field home run since birth." Not knowing whether this was actual fact or a metaphor to articulate Kinsler's propensity for the left side of the diamond, I decided to check it out. Of course, Newberg is correct. Here is the career data for the location of Kinsler's home runs (chronologically from left to right, from 2006 to 2009):

Homers to Left: 12+19+16+4 = 51 total
Homers to Center: 2+1+2+0 = 5 total
Homers to Right: 0+0+0+1 = 1 total

(source: billjamesonline.com)

3) While it's a little bit too early to start playing the Pythagorean W-L game, the Rangers have scored exactly as many runs as they have allowed: 85. This gives them a Pythagorean record of .500 (which doesn't truly translate into a record if the team has played 13 games). Given the trouble that the Rangers have had on the mound thus far, to know that the team breaks even is a nice thought. Their 85 runs scored is 4th in the bigs, and their 84 runs allowed is 4th from the bottom. Symmetry seems to be the name of the game here, since the Rangers finished 1st in runs scored last year, and last in runs allowed.

4) Until I played around with baseball-reference.com this week, I had no idea how little players put the ball into play on a 3-0 count over their careers. I was looking at Marlon Byrd's page and saw that, over his 2,406 career PA and 111 PA with a 3-0 count, he's only put 1 ball in play. Less than 1%. I imagined the number being low, but not that low.

Perhaps, I thought, it's only because Byrd isn't a tremendous power hitter and doesn't get the green light on 3-0 from the dugout very often, and when he does swing he takes a big rip which is less likely to make good contact. A look at some of the other Rangers (which have decent, but not prolific power), as well as some prolific power hitters around baseball somewhat supports this theory (despite the lack of thorough research and my small sample size). My primary point, however, is that hitters (especially the listed bona fide power hitters below the list of Rangers) make contact on 3-0 a lot less than I thought.

Michael Young: 2 balls put into play in 60 3-0 counts (0 HR)
Ian Kinsler: 3 balls put into play in 30 3-0 counts (1 HR)
Hank Blalock: 4 balls put into play in 75 3-0 counts (o HR)

*******************************************************
Matt Holliday: 10 balls put into play in 61 3-0 counts (0 HR)
Ryan Howard: 12 balls put into play in 137 3-0 counts (1 HR)
Alex Rodriguez: 12 balls put into play in 271 3-0 counts (1 HR)

5) The Rangers are ranked 27th in walks taken in the majors. In 2008 they finished with the 6th highest walk total. The main culprits:

**Marlon Byrd has walked 0 times this year in 36 PA. Of course, no one cares when you are hitting .361/.361/.667. When this hot streak dies down, however, let's hope that Byrd remembers how to be selective (a great asset of his last year when he walked in roughly 10% of his PAs en route to a .380 OBP).

**Josh Hamilton has walked 3 times in 57 PA, but his struggles as a result of his lack of selectivity have been well documented.

**Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who took a big step forward in the walks category in 2008 (despite his lack of power), has only 1 walk in 39 PA

**Chris Davis, never one to take advantage of many free passes, is characteristically low in the BB column with 2 in 46 PA, and leads the league with 21 strikeouts. So he's been striking out (roughly) once every two times he steps up. Yikes.

6) Hank Blalock's middle name is Joe. Not Joseph, Joe. Weird.

Tuesday: An Opening Day for the Ages

Today was a great day. Not only did the baseball season burst forth in all it's glory, but the Rangers also won, punishing Cy Young Award Winner Cliff Lee and the Indians 9-1. There was also plenty to talk about all over baseball:

**Hank Blalock homered for the Rangers in the Rangers' home opener. Again. This marks the 5th time that Blalock has gone deep in home openers (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009).

**Jarrod Saltalamacchia homered off of Cleveland pitcher Jensen Lewis for his first homerun since June 3, 2008. The pitcher he took deep on June 3rd? Jensen Lewis. (link)

**Ken Griffey Jr. homered in his first game back with the Seattle Mariners, tying Frank Robinson for the most homeruns on Opening Day with 8. (link)

**Two Arizona Diamondbacks, Felipe Lopez and Tony Clark, homered from both sides of the plate, marking the first time two teammates had ever done it on Opening Day and the first time in the regular season since Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams did it on April 23, 2000. (link)

**Florida's leadoff man Emilio Bonifacio hit an inside-the-park homerun, the first ever inside-the-park homerun hit on Opening Day. (link)

**Mark Teixeira's Yankee debut was met with boos from hostile Orioles fans, apparently bitter that the hometown boy rejected the O's to sign with the Yankees for more dough. (link)

**Blue Jays fans threw items onto the field at the Detroit Tigers, prompting the umpires to delay the Jays' home opener at Rogers Centre. (link)

**Two games were postponed because of snow. Again. When will MLB understand that they should not schedule any Opening Day games up North?

Isn't it great? Baseball is back!

Thursday: Andruw Jones and the Rangers of the Lost Spark

I had another post planned for today, but in light of some recent roster moves I thought this might be more fun. Please excuse the pun in the title, I couldn't help myself.

Roster Move in Question: Keeping Andruw Jones

For those interested, all of us here at HWC have already written about some aspect of this situation:

John Paul: On Andruw Jones
Jon: Andruw Jones, Fourth Outfielder?
Thomas: The Departed

Additionally, Fan Graphs has a nice breakdown of the Ranger outfield which focuses on Jones and Murphy.

For now, let's examine why the Rangers could have done this:

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #1: If he reverts to form, he will be a valuable addition to the team

In my previous article here at HWC, I predicted that Jones (with regular playing time) will post a .249/.333/.468 line this year. Not too shabby, I suppose, until you consider the current logjam in the Rangers outfield (shown with their Bill James 2009 projections):

Josh Hamilton (.310/.384/.556)
David Murphy (.277/.335/.456)
Nelson Cruz (.278/.352/.535)
Marlon Byrd (.283/.357/.430)

Not to mention the possibilities at designated hitter:

Hank Blalock (.282/.346/.476)
Chris Davis (.302/.352/.599)
Max Ramirez (.308/.390/.548)

I don't think that anyone can make a case that bringing in a wild card like Jones is going to be an improvement over any of those guys. And that is exactly what is going to happen: when Jones is in the lineup, someone on that list is going to be sitting. Even if Jones were to return to form, he's no more valuable than anyone the Rangers already have (read: anyone he would be stealing playing time from).

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #2: He can be valuable off the bench

First of all, if the Rangers wanted a versatile outfielder who can pinch-hit and fill in when necessary, they shouldn't have released Frank Catalanotto. While Jones is certainly superior defensively, his strikeout rate makes him a recipe for disaster at pinch hitter. What team wants a regular pinch hitter to be someone who strikes out in excess of once every 5 trips to the plate?

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #3: He's being showcased for a trade down the line

If Jones does revert to his old form, it is certainly possible that he could be valuable to a contending team short on outfielders at the trade deadline. The problem? To convince teams that he has found his old form, he needs to receive significant playing time. Return to Possible Reason #1.

Possible Reason the Rangers Think Andruw Jones is a Good Idea #4: He's just an insurance policy

After entertaining some of these situations, this is the only one that makes sense and is the only possible reason that doesn't trigger a vomit reflex. If this scenario is true, it may be due to the Rangers' paranoia about another dismal start to the season in April (see: 2007 and 2008). For instance, if Nelson Cruz reverts to his Quadruple-A hitter form like he did in April 2007, then Jones slides into the 4th outfielder role.

He could also be an insurance policy against injury. Murphy, Cruz, and Byrd all spent time on the disabled list last season. While this idea certainly looks good on paper, Jones isn't just going to sit until someone slumps or someone gets hurt. He's likely to be worked into the lineup semi-regularly. Return to Possible Reason #1.

Tuesday: Home/Road Splits (Hitters)

It is well known that Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is a "hitter's park." I was curious as to which Ranger hitters benefited the most from the Ballpark in 2008:


Those who benefited the most were Milton Bradley, Josh Hamilton, and Hank Blalock. What do all of these guys have in common? They are all sluggers who log most of their ABs hitting left-handed:

**Milton Bradley ripped a .358/.466/.679 line at home, but still hit a solid .290/.410/.462 on the road.

**Josh Hamilton punished visiting pitchers at a .345/.408/.611 mark, but was a much meeker .263/.331/.448 on the road.

**Hank Blalock did his best Hamilton impression of .343/.415/.610 at home, but hit an abysmal .248/.282/.438 away from the right field jet stream.


Michael Young also enjoyed a moderate advantage, but not much to brag about. In the same line of thought as above, Young is a right handed hitter who pushes the ball consistently to right field. In fact, Young put the ball into play 228 times to right field, 178 to center, and 136 to left (according to billjamesonline.com):

**Young looked like his old self at home, logging a .305/.362/.441 line; his splits away from the Ballpark are an uninspiring .264/.317/.364.


Using this trend, i.e. that left-handed power hitters on the Rangers in 2008 seem to have reaped the benefits of the Ballpark more than anyone else, I figured that Chris Davis would surely have joined in the fun. It turns out that Davis was mostly the same hitter no matter where he played: he hit .293/.333/.541 in Arlington and .275/.329/.558 elsewhere. He actually slugged more on the road . . .


There were only two (regular, or semi-regular) players who turned in notably better performances outside Arlington:

Gerald Laird turned in a .258/.322/.379 at home but improved to a more respectable .299/.337/.422 on the road.

Frank Catalanotto mustered a weak .254/.319/.365 in the Texas heat, but was a productive .295/.365/.434 in more mild climates.

Texas Rangers: "Steroid Sluggers"

I am growing weary of digging around for Rangers news and finding only clippings about steroids. So I am going to write about all the steroid issues in a single post, and, barring some other future steroid-related embarassment, I'll be done with it.

As expected, the news about Alex Rodriguez has everyone spouting off and casting doubt upon the Rangers teams of the early 2000s. An article, entitled "Rangers Organization at Heart of Scandal" just warms me up on these cold offseason days. Lucky for us, accusations towards the teams of the early part of this decade are easy to shrug off, since those Rangers teams sucked anyway. It was much more difficult to swallow when the buried truths about players like Juan Gonzalez, Pudge Rodriguez, and Rafael Palmeiro started to be unearthed--those teams included the only three playoff teams in Rangers history. To make sure to rub this in, the Dallas Observer comments on the Rangers "steroid sluggers".

Unfortunately, some people are starting to ask questions about players that played with A-Rod. A particular theory out there says that since Hank Blalock played next to Alex Rodriguez and is having a tough time with injuries, that he must be on steroids. This is frustrating to me. Blalock may very well have used steroids, we don't know. But the fact that he's drawing speculation because played 40 feet to A-Rod's right? I don't buy it.

Tom Hicks also claims to be irate, commenting that he is "shocked" about Rodriguez. I think this is a classic case of an owner trying desperately to convince everyone that he was as clueless as the fans about the whole steroid issue. The question is, does anyone really believe him?

Perhaps the most disappointing facet of this entire debacle: we are considered by many to be one of the most steroid-infested organizations in this era, and we don't have anything to show for it. That's it: the Rangers aren't even good at cheating.

Around the Horn: Weekend Edition

It would be nice if the biggest Rangers news of the weekend involved a player actually on the roster . . . but I will save that for a different post.

TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers have signed Andruw Jones. I'm questioning the motives of the Rangers a little bit here. Jones used to be a fine defensive centerfielder, and a Sammy Sosa-like power hitter. With the current logjam the Rangers have in the outfield with Murphy, Hamilton, Byrd, Cruz, Boggs, Catalanotto, and eventually Borbon, it is difficult to see how adding an aging centerfielder on a quest to resurrrect his career is going to help the Rangers. It seems even more detrimental when considering who he is going to be stealing at-bats from. Murphy? Cruz? Boggs? Possibly Borbon? The Rangers will benefit much more from any of these players taking the field more often than Jones. It is a low risk financially, but given the Rangers interest in acquiring a heavy right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup, I think that a decent performance by Jones will inevitably mark the end of the road for Blalock or Murphy.

Moving on to signings that have been completed, the Rangers signed veteran reliever Brendan Donnelly to a minor league contract. If, like me, you weren't terribly familiar with Donnelly before this move, you can find his stats here. I have to say that I was impressed with Donnelly's numbers: a career ERA of 3.12 and only one season over 3.94 (last season was a bit disastrous for him at 8.56, which helps explain why he is still available). Reading some of the comments posted on different websites, some reactions are of the sort: "Why do we keep signing all of these washed-up has-beens?" I have several responses to this:

1) They are cheap.
2) They are low risk.
3) They are pretty much all that is available.
4) They provide an injury insurance policy (see: Joaquin Benoit, Eric Hurley).
5) The Rangers don't want to rush any of the young arms in the minors before they are ready.
6) As Adam Morris of LoneStarBall stated in this post, "[The] interesting thing about bullpens is that most of the ones that end up doing really well have some guys pop up out of nowhere. Really, that's what makes bullpens so unique...you can often times dig up a guy as an NRI or as a fringe prospect who can have some things click in the pen and become a quality reliever."

The most important issue here, I think, is that the Rangers are settting their sights on 2010. The signing of guys like Donnelly, Derrick Turnbow, and Eddie Guardado ensures that guys like Neftali Feliz are not Edinson Volquez-ed and rushed up here too quickly. I think signing guys like Guardado, Turnbow, and Donnelly are different than say, Jamey Wright, because Wright was never actually all that good, ever. These guys have a number of productive seasons under their belt. And, you never know, they just may have some gas left in the tank.

Also, Jason Parks of Baseball Time in Arlington posted an in-depth scouting report on Julio Borbon. For those who are not terribly familiar with scouting or with Borbon, this is a good read.